Cipherdom (deprecated)

All URLs Breaking Loose

I was about to lament how this week's ever-hokey "West Wing" episode was the only place during this election week where anyone could see a debate of the Israel-Palestine conflict that is the primary subtext of our war with terror. But now there's this startling example of truth telling by Newseek's Christopher Dickey. Of course, it's a web exclusive, so as not to offend paying customers.

Thanks to Dean for his link to Eminem's must-see video for the song "Mosh," a scabrous and inspiring call to vote. See the lyrics, too. It's so undeniable, even Moby is knocked out.

In case you hadn't heard, video from an ABC affiliate's story on the 101st Airborne's arrival at the Al-Qaqaa munitions dump appears to have confirmed the allegation that Bush's Administration failed to secure the site. The tape shows boxes, sealed by UN inspectors, full of what experts are confirming is HMX powder. Here's a helpful cheat sheet if you're wondering exactly what the stuff is: HMX stands for High Melting Explosive. Have a nice day.

Oh, and the FBI is investigating whether Halliburton's ripped us off for another $5 billion or so.

New and Unused

I would damn well hope so. As usual, Vernam can't decide what to be for Halloween. Now, at least, I know what I don't want to be.

Electoral Calculator

Who else but the NYT? I've been looking without success for a site that would let you work out various electoral college scenarios, but finally, here it is. And then some.

• If Bush doesn't win Florida or Ohio, he could win every other swing state and still lose.

• If Kerry takes Florida, he only needs:
  
  • Wisconsin and Colorado to win it all, or
    
  • Either Wisconsin or Colorado plus Minnesota, or
    
  • Either Wisconsin or Colorado plus any two from among Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Oregon
  
  
• If Bush takes Florida, Kerry can still win with Ohio and any combination of three states from among Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Colorado, or any four states from among Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Oregon.

• If Bush takes Florida and Ohio, Kerry has to win every other swing state.
  

There are lots of other scenarios, so neither side should be complacent. But it's clear which side is more nervous, despite the national polls.

Is There A Pattern Here?

Thanks to my good friend Susan for this list of odd coincidences.

Democrats
* Richard Gephardt: Air National Guard, 1965-71.
* David Bonior: Staff Sgt., Air Force 1968-72.
* Tom Daschle: 1st Lt., Air Force SAC 1969-72.
* Al Gore: enlisted Aug. 1969; sent to Vietnam Jan. 1971 as an army journalist in 20th Engineer Brigade.
* Bob Kerrey: Lt. j.g. Navy 1966-69; Medal of Honor, Vietnam.
* Daniel Inouye: Army 1943-47; Medal of Honor, WWII.
* John Kerry: Lt., Navy 1966-70; Silver Star, Bronze Star with CombatV, Purple Hearts.
* Charles Rangel: Staff Sgt., Army 1948-52; Bronze Star, Korea.
* Max Cleland: Captain, Army 1965-68; Silver Star & Bronze Star, Vietnam.
* Ted Kennedy: Army, 1951-53.
* Tom Harkin: Lt., Navy, 1962-67; Naval Reserve, 1968-74.
* Jack Reed: Army Ranger, 1971-1979; Captain, Army Reserve 1979-91.
* Fritz Hollings: Army officer in WWII; Bronze Star and seven campaign ribbons.
* Leonard Boswell: Lt. Col., Army 1956-76; Vietnam, DFCs, Bronze Stars, and Soldier's Medal.
* Pete Peterson: Air Force Captain, POW. Purple Heart, Silver Star and Legion of Merit.
* Mike Thompson: Staff sergeant, 173rd Airborne, Purple Heart.
* Bill McBride: Candidate for Fla. Governor. Marine in Vietnam; Bronze Star with Combat V.
* Gray Davis: Army Captain in Vietnam, Bronze Star.
* Pete Stark: Air Force 1955-57
* Chuck Robb: Marine, served in Vietnam
* Howell Heflin: Silver Star
* George McGovern: Silver Star & DFC during WWII.
* Bill Clinton: Did not serve. Student deferments. Entered draft but received #311.
* Jimmy Carter: Seven years in the Navy.
* Walter Mondale: Army 1951-1953
* John Glenn: WWII and Korea; six DFCs and Air Medal with 18 Clusters.
* Tom Lantos: Served in Hungarian underground in WWII. Saved by Raoul Wallenberg.

Republicans
* Dick Cheney: did not serve. Several deferments, the last by marriage.
* Dennis Hastert: did not serve.
* Tom Delay: did not serve.
* Roy Blunt: did not serve.
* Bill Frist: did not serve.
* Mitch McConnell: did not serve.
* Rick Santorum: did not serve.
* Trent Lott: did not serve.
* John Ashcroft: did not serve. Seven deferments to teach business.
* Jeb Bush: did not serve.
* Karl Rove: did not serve.
* Saxby Chambliss: did not serve. "Bad knee." The man who questioned Max Cleland's patriotism.
* Paul Wolfowitz: did not serve.
* Vin Weber: did not serve.
* Richard Perle: did not serve.
* Douglas Feith: did not serve.
* Eliot Abrams: did not serve.
* Richard Shelby: did not serve.
* Jon! Kyl: did not serve.
* Tim Hutchison: did not serve.
* Christopher Cox: did! not serve.
* Newt Gingrich: did not serve.
* Don Rumsfeld: served in Navy (1954-57) as flight instructor.
* George W. Bush: failed to complete his six-year National Guard; got assigned to Alabama so he could campaign for family friend running for U.S. Senate; failed to show up for required medical exam, disappeared from duty; campaign workers and guardsmen alike claim never to have seen him in Alabama.
* Ronald Reagan: due to poor eyesight, served in a non-combat role making movies.
* B-1 Bob Dornan: Consciously enlisted after fighting was over in Korea.
* Phil Gramm: did not serve.
* John McCain: Silver Star, Bronze Star, Legion of Merit, Purple Heart and Distinguished Flying Cross.
* Dana Rohrabacher: did not serve.
* John M. McHugh: did not serve.
* JC Watts: did not serve.
* Jack Kemp: did not serve. "Knee problem," although continued in NFL for 8 years.
* Dan Quayle: Journalism unit of the Indiana National Guard.
* Rudy Giuliani: did not serve.
* George Pataki: did not serve.
* Spencer Abraham: did not serve.
* John Engler: did not serve.
* Lindsey Graham: National Guard lawyer.
* Arnold Schwarzenegger: AWOL from Austrian army base.

Pundits & Preachers
* Sean Hannity: did not serve.
* Rush Limbaugh: did not serve (4-F with a 'pilonidal cyst.')
* Bill O'Reilly: did not serve.
* Michael Savage: did not serve.
* George Will: did not serve.
* Chris Matthews: did not serve.
* Paul Gigot: d id not serve.
* Bill Bennett: did not serve.
* Pat Buchanan: did not serve.
* John Wayne: did not serve.
* Bill Kristol: did not serve.
* Kenneth Starr: did not serve.
* Antonin Scalia: did not serve.
* Clarence Thomas: did not serve.
* Ralph Reed: did not serve.
* Michael Medved: did not serve.
* Charlie Daniels: did not serve.

FYI

Ted Koppel on Vietnamese villagers and combatants who lived through the intense firefight where John Kerry's valor earned a Silver Star. If you caught the broadcast, you were treated to Koppel's vivisection of Nixon's handpicked hatchet man John O'Neil, whose "teenager in a loincloth" claim was debunked by Vietnamese who said the man Kerry killed was a 26-year-old dressed in black Viet Cong garb.

Tom Friedman on the Bush-Cheney addiction to 9/11.

Molly Ivins on the Bush-Cheney compulsion to insult our intelligence.

Two from Doug Morton:

Naomi Klein on how the Carlyle Group and Jim Baker are blazing new trails in conflict of interest, offering simultaneously to erase Iraq's debts and to help neighboring nations recoup the money Iraq owes them. Nice work if you can get it, etc.

And then Sy Hersh with some heartbreaking anecdotes from his sources in the military.

Fair, Balanced, and Super Freaky

On a night when the Smirk was replaced by the Insipid Grin, round 3 of the debates clearly went to Kerry, according to polls of viewers. It's hard to imagine the nation electing a guy so severely overmatched, but then it's hard to fathom how Bush is even in the race at this point, much less in a dead heat.

An interesting theory I've heard about undecideds: They are so concerned about making the wrong choice, some experts predict a lot of them will just stay home on November 2. I'm not sure which candidate that helps, but as a great man said the other night, who the hell are these people? What more do they need to know?

Hopefully, the news of Kerry's debate trifecta won't be overshadowed by the disturbing allegations about Bill O'Reilly's creepy treatment of a female employee at Faux News. I wish Al Franken's show were on the air here, because he'll have a field day with this. On the bright side, there's no evidence O'Reilly is addicted to Oxycontin.

Bush: Jock Sniffer

Sorry for the late notice, but do your best to see tonight's PBS Frontline, about the two presidential candidates. It's the most in-depth analysis I've seen on tv -- faint praise, I know. If you miss it, they'll be streaming it as of Friday.

Of all the awful things to be said about Bush, few are worse than that he is a frustrated athlete, as Nicholas Lemann observes in The New Yorker. It tells everything you need to know about the guy. And if all that jock sniffing weren't enough, Lemann's account of the Trojan horse called "No Child Left Behind" should seal the deal. In masterful understatement, Bush's erstwhile partner on that education initiative, Rep. George Miller (D-CA), says of the Administration: "They find the basic tenets of democracy—very inconvenient."

Obama vs. Keyes

Yesterday, Vernam got to attend a luncheon where Senate candidates Barack Obama and Alan Keyes spoke. It wasn't a debate, because they were never on-stage at the same time. But they addressed the same questions about Housing, Transportation, Economic Development, and Education, which form the agenda of the host Metropolitan Planning Commission. This was the organization's big annual fundraiser, with 900 attendees.

The moderator, local tv political reporter Mike Flannery, said both candidates had wanted to speak second, but Obama relented and spoke first. Which was smart, because things ran long, and Keyes spoke after lunch to more than a few empty seats. It was refreshing not to hear homeland security discussed. I find Obama's command of language and issues deeply impressive. He mostly avoided partisan statements but did say "the money got left behind for No Child Left Behind." When you're up by 45 points in the polls, you can take the high road. Obama said, "I'm not someone who blames Bush for every job lost in the past four years," mentioning that the downward trend in manufacturing would have happened no matter who was president. "But bad decisions were made," he said, pointing to the tax breaks given to U.S. companies that take jobs off-shore, and international trade agreements that let the Chinese devalue their currency to compete unfairly for jobs. It was a good speech, but pretty mild, as befits a guy with such a big lead.

In the context of these presidential and vice presidential debates, though, I wonder if Obama has the mean streak required to go all the way, as people are predicting he can. On the other hand, wouldn't it be nice to see a national candidate who could elevate the level of discourse? Kerry has tried, and maybe tonight we'll see if he succeeds. On one level, it may be comforting that some people, at least, are trying to demonize Obama. You haven't arrived as a Democratic politician until you've had some zealot distort your record. And on another level, just the anticipation of his joining the Senate has other people jazzed enough to use his name in exhorting the new Washington, DC, baseball club's owners to name their team the Grays (in tribute to the Negro Leagues' Homestead Grays) rather than the Senators (in light of the fact that, come January, we'll have just one African-American senator in a city that's predominantly Black).

The event was also significant as a rare sighting of both candidates in the same location. Keyes is also an excellent speaker, but his themes were simplistic and conclusions erroneous. Breakdown of the family unit is at the core of all America's problems, he said, and faith-based initiatives are the solution. The constitution does not call for a separation of church and state, Keyes stated flatly; he called it "the Phony Doctrine," a red herring promoted by lawyers and atheists. Government cannot help with the social problems we all recognize exist, he also said, because bureaucrats act out of self-interest rather than the altruistic impulses that religious organizations pursue. As with most ideologues, there's a kernel of truth in most of the fallacies that Keyes was weaving yesterday. Mostly, though, I was struck by the fact that he was saying what other conservative candidates can't because they actually have a hope of being elected. The Illinois GOP picked Keyes because they thought his candor and charisma would put Obama in an unflattering light. But all they've done is help expose some of the more-bizarre beliefs that their other candidates have the sense to keep under wraps. I wonder if the Tennessee GOP will trot out Keyes again when Harold Ford, Jr. runs for the U.S. Senate there in a few years. I'd pay to see that one.

One Other Thing I Noticed

These photos* show Sen. John Edwards with Dick Cheney at a prayer breakfast, February 1, 2001. According to the transcript, Cheney said: "Congressman Watts, Sen. Edwards, friends from across America and distinguished visitors to our country from all over the world, Lynne and I are honored to be with you all this morning." In fairness, when they sat down to eat, he probably got preoccupied.

BTW, those weekly Tuesday meetings that Cheney holds in the Senate? Only Republicans are invited. According to the L.A. Times, Cheney's infamous "fuck off" remark to Sen. Patrick Leahy was prompted by Leahy's teasing Cheney for only associating with Republicans during his Senate visits.

*99 percent unretouched

Fact Check

I took Cheney's advice and visited FactCheck.com. WTF?! Its banner says "WHY WE MUST NOT REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH." The vice president must be sending a desperate, almost subliminal call for help. Is he being held hostage in that remote bunker?

Or, more probably, he misspoke and meant FactCheck.org, which not long ago made it onto Vernam's list of hotlinks (at the right of this page). Uh, they don't exactly have kind things to say about Cheney, either. I bet his VCR is still blinking 12:00, too.

Things I Noticed Tonight

1. John Edwards is one good-looking, intelligent, well-spoken son of a gun.

2. That Cheney guy is mean. Mean, mean, mean, mean, mean!

3. John Edwards has empathy to burn.

4. Cheney has none, unless it's for other mean, old, corrupt CEO types.

5. John Edwards has a lot of confidence in the guy at the top of his ticket.

6. Cheney mentioned Bush about as often as speakers at the GOP convention mentioned Osama Bin Laden.

7. They both have compassion for gay people.

8. Only one of them pursues policies to persecute gay people.

9. Cheney "honors John Kerry's service in Vietnam" blah blah blah.

10. John Kerry, John Edwards, and Dick Cheney are all light years smarter and more articulate than Mr. Messed Mixage, who'd better get his game on this Friday.

Confederacy of Nuances

The newsflashes are coming in more quickly than poor Vernam's little fingers can link to them. David Brooks says he had a chit chat with Rumsfeld about the new vigor with which the war is being prosecuted:

"I asked Rumsfeld yesterday how decisions like the one to take back Samarra are made. Are Iraqis like Allawi really deciding when and where Americans fight?

He described a decision-making process that has no formal structure, but involves constant consultations, involving State Department types like Ambassador John Negroponte, military types like Gen. George Casey and Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz, and a raft of Iraqi officials. It also involves the big Washington honchos like Powell, Rumsfeld and Bush."

Sure sounds to me like ceding authority. Wait, I thought that was the neo-con nightmare, having U.S. troops under the command of a foreign leader. Which is it: Allawi is a sovereign leader who doesn't answer to Rummy or anyone else, or Allawi is a puppet who has no authority to direct U.S. military decisions? Bush is trying to have it both ways. Again. Now that is a nuanced position.

Former Turn-around Expert Speaks Out

No less an authority than Paul Bremer now claims the Administration's failure in Iraq stems from insufficient troops and the resulting inability to maintain order. (Other than that, their reconstruction plan was spot-on.) Specifically, he said:

"We paid a big price for not stopping it because it established an atmosphere of lawlessness. We never had enough troops on the ground." And regarding the reconstruction itself, he said: "There was planning, but planning for a situation that didn't arise.

Hmm . . . Quite a bit like Naomi Klein's hypothesis, when you think about it.

The Washington Post article says:

Bremer's comments were striking because they echoed contentions of many administration critics, including Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry, who argue that the U.S. government failed to plan adequately to maintain security in Iraq after the invasion. Bremer has generally defended the U.S. approach in Iraq but in recent weeks has begun to criticize the administration for tactical and policy shortfalls.

Guess who's not getting a Christmas card from George and Laura . . .

Do Over

While watching Kerry's debate performance on Thursday, I kept my enthusiasm in check, remembering that Bush was deemed to have lost the first 2000 debate until his spin machine took charge. On Friday, I watched cautiously the glowing reviews of Kerry, still not believing the official record would -- for a change -- reflect what I'd seen with my own eyes. Then yesterday's polls showing the Bush lead had been completely erased led me to think that maybe this once the truth might prevail.

But never count Rove out. Why should the election coverage turn to facts and policies at this late date, when it can still be about unmitigated crap like this? My first reaction is that the Bush campaign is just desperate to change the subject, but don't be surprised if our "liberal" media latch on to the non-story. This particular ruse doesn't concern me so much as what they're dreaming up for the next debate, now that it's dawned on them how badly overmatched their boy is.

Round 1: Kerry's the Winner

Well, looks like Deano spared me the trouble of finding a bunch of interesting post-debate links. Here's one more, though: an interactive view from the New York Times.

Virtually no one is claiming Bush won the debate. He looked tense at best, testy at worst. Kerry clearly looked more presidential, which matters a lot. He was articulate, confident, in command of the issues. His best moment was countering Bush's tired claim that his "certainty" is what makes him the man for the job. "It's one thing to be certain, but you can be certain and you can be wrong," said Kerry. "Certainty sometimes gets you into trouble."

The most jaw-dropping moment was when Bush claimed he went to war with Iraq because "the enemy attacked us." Sorry, but not a single Iraqi was among the 9/11 hijackers. Kerry didn't miss that opening: "The president just said something extraordinarily revealing and, frankly, very important, in this debate. . . Saddam Hussein didn't attack us. Osama bin Laden attacked us. Al Qaeda attacked us." No minor detail, that. Comparing Bush unfavorably to his father was another compelling remark by Kerry, who noted that the elder Bush was too smart to try occupying Iraq.

Bush has been slammed recently as out of touch. Last night, he looked physically weak. And yes, the Smirk is back. People have mistaken it for smugness, but it's more a sign of exasperation at having to defend his actions as president; that's when the Smirk reappears -- and last night it did, often -- as if an attempt to convey certainty when he can't muster facts to explain why he's so sure he's right. Yesterday he looked literally foggy, as if he was on beta-blockers or something stronger. His slurred words last night and again on the stump today leave the impression that he's plain tired and not up to the task of winning this election. One thing's for sure: He can't win the next two matches with Kerry if he keeps relying on the lazy applause lines that might wow hand-picked attendees of his fake town halls but sink with a thud on the debate floor.

Meanwhile, Kerry has hit his stride. His remarks today showed him full of confidence and, by all reports, the Democratic base is fired up as it hasn't been since the convention in Boston. Last night he looked like someone who can make us proud of our Executive branch again. More than half of the undecideds who viewed the debate said they came away more impressed by Kerry than they had been beforehand. He's again seized the late-stage momentum, just as against Weld in '96.

PS: How on Earth can there be a 90-minute foreign policy debate with virtually no mention of Israel and none of Palestine?