October 24, 2004

Electoral Calculator

Who else but the NYT? I've been looking without success for a site that would let you work out various electoral college scenarios, but finally, here it is. And then some.

  • If Bush doesn't win Florida or Ohio, he could win every other swing state and still lose.

  • If Kerry takes Florida, he only needs:
    • Wisconsin and Colorado to win it all, or
    • Either Wisconsin or Colorado plus Minnesota, or
    • Either Wisconsin or Colorado plus any two from among Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Oregon

  • If Bush takes Florida, Kerry can still win with Ohio and any combination of three states from among Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Colorado, or any four states from among Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Oregon.

  • If Bush takes Florida and Ohio, Kerry has to win every other swing state.
There are lots of other scenarios, so neither side should be complacent. But it's clear which side is more nervous, despite the national polls.

Posted by Vernam at October 24, 2004 12:14 PM
Comments

TOF has a big tent and never chooses his friends based on political ideology, sexual orientation, race, gender, religion, etc. TOF and VC have been seeing the world differently for more than 30 years … going back to when I was a Kennedy-loving, Southside Irish-Catholic Democrat. The one enduring quibble I have with VC, is that he sees evil where I don’t.

TOF is not a blamer or a crybaby. I said on this blog a while ago that Bush blew it in Iraq and I couldn’t blame anybody for not voting for him because of it. I believe the people will get it right. If Bush loses, it will be not unjustifiable punishment for the mishandling of Iraq. Intentional double negative.

Despite having quite a few lawyer friends, I’m not a big fan of lawyers in general. The more lawyers a society employs, the less trust that society has. It is unfortunate. When, however, this election goes to court, the GOP better have lawyers as good as the Democrats. If they don’t it’s their own fault. No tears.

Posted by: TOF at October 25, 2004 12:41 PM

Deano sez:
>FACT: the RNC has pulled their field
>operatives from OH, relocating to FLA.
>And it ain't because they believe OH
>is sewn up. Them's the facts, not polls.

Also, Bush hasn't been visiting Ohio. All their eggs are in Jeb's basket. Which brings us to . . .

Darth Olam said:
>On Meet the Press yesterday, Terry McAuliffe
>confirmed that the DNC had 1000 lawyers with
>private jets ready to sue. Perhaps, this is a
>little preview of a Kerry / Edwards
>administration. So, it looks like Bush needs
>Florida and Ohio or Rehnquist and Scalia.

. . . voter suppression. People are being advised to allow way more time than usual to vote because GOP operatives will be challenging credentials, especially in Ohio and Florida due to the record surge of registrants there. I'll be very surprised if the national outcome isn't contested, no matter who's ahead when we go to sleep in the wee hours next Tuesday night. What won't surprise me: GOP blaming it on lawyers, as if they don't have any of their own. Haw!

Funny how they never complain about lawyers for corporations and other entrenched interests. Only about lawyers who defend average people against the entrenched interests.

>I still can’t get the hot link to work.

Strange, because it appears as a link in the mail alert that my blog sent me. Try just adding the URL w/out the "a href etc." tags.

>The band sounded great Friday. I’d never
>been to Ballydoyle before and I must say
>it was hopping. Let me know when you’re
>playing there again.

This gives my lefty pals some inkling of how you and Vernam can possibly be friends. I hope you were around when I dedicated "Rocking in the Free World." Turns out we'll be at it again already this Friday, same time and place, due to a cancellation. Last Friday went really well -- scored a cushy Xmas party gig, even. Thx for coming!

Posted by: VC at October 25, 2004 11:31 AM

That partisan math again, I guess. Give me an example of how RCP's poll tabluations are partisan.

Posted by: TOF at October 25, 2004 11:13 AM

TOF tilts again: realclearpolitics is republican partisan. Anyone who uses LV as much as they do should be enough to clue you in; but they've been outted for months. Misleading is endemic, apparently.

FACT: the RNC has pulled their field operatives from OH, relocating to FLA. And it ain't because they believe OH is sewn up. Them's the facts, not polls.

Posted by: deano at October 25, 2004 10:17 AM

The band sounded great Friday. I’d never been to Ballydoyle before and I must say it was hopping. Let me know when you’re playing there again.

Now, back to business. Why don’t you just go to the DNC electoral calculator? Today, the NY Times loaded up the front page with anti-Bush stories and sent them to Florida voters who were not NY time subscribers.

If you want an unbiased electoral college guide try this one:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html.

I still can’t get the hot link to work.

On Meet the Press yesterday, Terry McAuliffe confirmed that the DNC had 1000 lawyers with private jets ready to sue. Perhaps, this is a little preview of a Kerry / Edwards administration. So, it looks like Bush needs Florida and Ohio or Rehnquist and Scalia.

I'm not nervous either way.

Posted by: TOF at October 25, 2004 09:44 AM