[gu-l] (03/27/02) System Dynamics simulation and its K-12 education
Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D.
utsumi@columbia.edu
Thu, 28 Mar 2002 23:20:42 -0500
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<<March 28, 2002>>
Archived distributions can be retrieved by clicking =B3Correspondence=B2 in our
home page at <http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/>.
For those after 2/27/01, see or bookmark:
<http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/gu-l/> and click on =B3Date,=B2 for
example. The most recent archives are the bottom line.
Professor Jay W. Forrester <jforestr@mit.edu>
Mr. John McLeod <mcleod@sdsc.edu>
Dear Professor Forrester:
(1) In my previous msg of 3/21/02 to you, I said that I would briefly write
you of my activities after I learned System Dynamics from you in late 1960s=
.
> (a) I spent one year as a Fulbright exchange student at the University of
> Nebraska (your alma mater), from 1954 to 1955,
>=20
>> My uncle=B9s family has a green-house business in Lincoln, Nebraska for mo=
re
>> than a half century.
>=20
> (b) I received my Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Dr. Donald Othmer (a
> graduate of the University of Nebraska) at Polytechnic University in Broo=
klyn,
> NY, in 1964,
>=20
> (c) My theses was to analyze the rate of absorption with chemical reactio=
n
> when SO2 and NOX gases were absorbed into liquid. I used its computer
> simulation (with several ordinary, highly non-linear differential equatio=
ns
> and two-split boundary conditions) on a slow-time analog computer built b=
y
> Bell Lab which was mounted on the Battleship, Missouri, and which was use=
d to
> gun-tracking to shoot Japan, and on which General MacArthur signed the
> surrender of Japan,
>=20
> (d) Switched to repetitive-analog computer at Shell Oil company to simula=
te
> chemical reaction and process control,
>=20
> (e) Used then the largest hybrid computer to simulate the extraction of s=
hale
> oil in a retort (with several four-dimensional, highly non-linear partial
> differential equations and three-split boundary conditions) while I was w=
ith
> Mobil Oil company in early 1960s. The hybrid computer was later used for=
the
> simulation of Eagle=B9s landing on lunar surface at Lincoln Lab at M.I.T.,
>=20
> (f) Switched from analog and hybrid computers to digital simulation langu=
age
> and acquainted with Prof. Jack Pugh who devised DYNAMO simulation languag=
e for
> your System Dynamics,
>=20
>> Learned System Dynamics and took some courses at Sloan School in late 19=
60s.
>=20
> (g) Moved to Stone and Webster Engineering Company in Boston to simulate
> petrochemical plant process control,
>=20
> (h) Created, organized and named Summer Computer Simulation Conference (S=
CSC)
> in 1970 (Denver, CO as the Program Chairman) and in 1971 (Boston, MA as t=
he
> General Chairman),
>=20
>> In the Boston conference, we had a macro-system simulation session, and =
we
>> heard about your World Dynamics activities. I got an idea of Peace Gami=
ng (a
>> term coined by me) at this session. I then thought why not split Japan =
model
>> to be developed and maintained by Japanese and interfaced with other
>> countries=B9 through data telecom network.
>>=20
>>> This is, in a sense, the extension of analog computer, i.e., each ampli=
fier
>>> of the analog computer corresponds to sub-model of each country (or
>>> sub-sector), and data telecom network corresponds to wiring of amplifie=
rs,
>>> thus creating massive, distributed parallel processing in global scale.
>>> Incidentally, I recall of my visit to you in early 1970s to describe th=
is
>>> concept.
>=20
> (i) Moved to Mitsubishi Research Institute in Tokyo and introduced System
> Dynamics, system engineering and computer simulation technology to Japan =
in
> the early 1970s,
>=20
>> 1) Brought a System Dynamics study group to Sloan (taught by Prof. Ed
>> Roberts) and others,
>>=20
>> 2) Initiated the concept of Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace G=
aming
>> with the use of distributed computer simulation models through "Global N=
eural
>> Computer Network" (a term coined by me) in which each participating game
>> player, with his/her own desktop computer, database and submodel, would
>> correspond to a neuron, a router to a synapses, and Internet to nerves o=
f
>> global brain.
>>=20
>>> Vice President Al Gore used this term in a speech [Washington, D.C., 19=
94],
>>> as the result of one member of his staff receiving quite a good bit of =
list
>>> distribution material from me!
>>>=20
>>> Al Gore then continued with the following words:
>>>=20
>>> "The Department of Defense is investing well over $1 billion in the
>>> development and implementation of networked distributed interactive
>>> simulation. This technology, which allows dispersed learners to engage =
in
>>> collaborative problem solving activities in real time, is now ready for
>>> transfer to schools and workplaces outside of the defense sector." [Spe=
aking
>>> to communications industry leaders, January 11, 1994]
>>=20
>> The global peace gaming system is a computerized gaming/simulation to he=
lp
>> decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system=
for
>> positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war. The idea involves
>> interconnecting experts in many countries via global Internet to collabo=
rate
>> in the discovering of new solutions for world crises, such as the
>> deteriorating ecology of our globe, and to explore new alternatives for =
a
>> world order capable of addressing the problems and opportunities of an
>> interdependent globe. Gaming/simulation is the best tool we have for
>> understanding the world's problems and the solutions we propose for them=
. The
>> understanding, with scientific and rational analysis and critical thinki=
ng,
>> would be the basis of world peace, and hence ought to be the basic princ=
iple
>> of global education for peace.
>>=20
>> 3) Jack Pugh=B9s info about the emerging commercial version of packet-swit=
ching
>> telecom network (through his neighbor Dr. Bolt, Chairman of BBN which ma=
naged
>> DARPANET, the predecessor of Internet) in the spring of 1973 made me to
>> devote the spread of Telenet to various overseas countries, especially t=
o
>> Japan since its incorporation in 1976,
>=20
> (j) During my engagement on normative =B3peace gaming=B2 with Bob Noel of the
> University of California in Santa Barbara in 1973, Jorgen Rander (one of =
your
> world dynamics group members) sent me an email from Oslo asking where Jac=
k=B9s
> DYNAMO was located in GE=B9s time-sharing computer, since I requested Jack =
to do
> so before.
>=20
>> This triggered my effort of deregulating the Japanese telecom policies f=
or
>> the use of email which subsequently triggered de-monopolization and
>> privatization of Japanese telecom industries, which then were emulated i=
n
>> many other countries =8B now almost all countries have Internet access and=
over
>> 525 million people use email,
>>=20
>>> Further information about the above can be found in my book draft/Chapt=
er 1
>>> =B3Personal Recollections on the Inceptions of Peace Gaming and Global
>>> University System=B2 at
>>> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Bookwriting/Contents_of_Book.htm=
l
>=20
> (k) Conducted in 1986 a gaming simulation on the US-Japan trade issues wi=
th
> the use of videoconferencing and a world economic simulation model, with
> participation of Prof. Lester Thurow of M.I.T. and others,
>=20
> (l) Conducted in 1987 a videoconferencing from M.I.T. to Tokyo via satell=
ite,
>=20
> (m) In the following decade, conducted =B3Global Lecture Hall (GLH)=B2
> multipoint-to-multipoint, multimedia, interactive videoconferences spanni=
ng
> from Korea, New Zealand, Japan, many universities in North and South Amer=
ica,
> Europe, Middle-East and Scandinavia =8B once or twice every year,
>=20
>> See more in my book/Chapter 2 mentioned in Item (1)-(j) above.
>=20
> (n) Thanks to these effort, I had the honor to receive in 1994 the Lord P=
erry
> Award for Excellence in Distance Education, the highest honor in the now
> emerging e-learning field.
>=20
> (o) Further info may be found in the followings;
>=20
>> 1) =B3Global University for Global Peace Gaming,=B2
>> Paper presented at The 22nd International Conference of The Internationa=
l
>> Simulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA) Kyoto, Japan: 15-19 July, 1991=
(hard
>> copy)
>> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Bookwriting/PART_I/Chapter_V/ISAG=
A_Pap
>> er.html
>>=20
>> 2) =B3Quest for Global Peace (A Personal Recollection),=B2 Paper presented a=
t
>> Global Peace Assembly Organized by The Vice President of the Republic of
>> China and The Federation of World Peace and Love (FOWPAL), etc., Taipei,
>> Taiwan, August 12 to 19, 2001
>> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GPA-Taipei_8-15 01/Quest_for_GP.h=
tml
>>=20
> (p) In order to realize our Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Ga=
ming,
> we are now forging ahead to establish the followings;
>=20
>> 1) Global University System (GUS),
>> 2) Global Broadband Internet (GBI),
>> 3) Global Service Trust Fund (GSTF).
>=20
>> You may find further info about them at
>>=20
>> 1. =B3Synopsis of Global University System, July 12, 2001=B2
>>> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Global_University/Global%20Unive=
rsity
>>> %20System/Synopsis_7-12-01.html
>>>=20
>> 1. =B3GLOSAS Projects for Closing Digital Divide,=B2
>>> Paper published in InterMedia (April, 2001, Vol. 29, No. 2, Pages 4 to =
8)
>>> with title of =B3Using broadband to close the digital divide,=B2 Internatio=
nal
>>> Institute of Communications (IIC), London, United Kingdom (hard copy)
>>> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Manaus%20Workshop/InfoDev_Applic=
ation
>>> /InfoDev_Prop_Final_Web/Appendices/Appendix_V_GLOSAS_Projects/Closing_D=
ig_Di
>>> v_01152%20(Wo.htm
Dear E-Colleagues:
(2) Professor Forrester (See his bio in ATTACHMENT I and II below) kindly
provided me with the following materials (attached with this msg);
> 1. =B3From the Ranch to System Dynamics: An Autobiography=B2 (D-4197-3.JWF
> Biography.pdf) (106 KBytes),
> 2. =B3Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century=B2
> (D-4434-3.21stCent.pdf) (61 KBytes),
> 3. =B3System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers=B2 (D-4665-4.SD&K-12 teachers.pdf) (1
> MBytes),
> 4. =B3Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems=B2
> (D-4468-2.Counterintuitive.pdf) (249 KBytes).
Along with the establishment of Global University System (under the
UNESCO/UNITWIN Networking Program) (*) with the Global Broadband Internet
and E-Rate of Global Service Trust Fund for K-12 schools (as proposed in ou=
r
Amazon Project (**)), we will forge ahead to spread and proliferate the
System Dynamics in order to realize the Globally Collaborative Environmenta=
l
Peace Gaming through Global Neural Computer Network =8B particularly and
hopefully, with the participation of K-12 youngsters around the world.
> (*) See
> (A) http://www.unesco.org/education/educprog/unitwin/index.html
> (B)=20
> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Global_University/Global%20Univers=
ity%2
> 0System/UNESCO_NGO/UNITWIN/UNITWIN_Agreement/UNITWIN_Agreement.html
> (**) see the materials in the Section =B3GUS/Brazil/Amazon in the Section o=
f
> Global University System (GUS) in
> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GLOSAS_USA/Page/List_of_Activities=
.html
Pls enjoy reading those materials.
(3) As I was reading his paper (Item (2)-1), I was very much impressed that=
,
even such an eminent professor as Forrester at such a prestigious
institution as M.I.T. encountered with many difficulties of the so-called
=B3mind-change,=B2 particularly with bureaucrats.
>=20
> (a) During my effort of deregulating the Japanese telecom policies for th=
e use
> of email mentioned in the above Item (1)-(j), I also encountered with sev=
ere
> opposition from the Japanese bureaucrats =8B see Mr. Yoshio Utsumi=B9s (then =
the
> deputy minister of the Japanese Post and Telecom and now the Director-Gen=
eral
> of the International Telecom Union) regretting confession =B3What a stupid =
thing
> we did!=B2 in Section III-E of my paper =B3Quest for Global Peace=B2 at
> http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GPA-Taipei_8-15-01/Quest_for_GP.ht=
ml#an
> chor249834
> (b) When I submitted our grant application to the InfoDev of the World Ba=
nk to
> experimentally install broadband wireless Internet units in Florianopolis=
,
> Brazil in 1996, it was declined saying that its use required license in
> Brazil. A few weeks later, I visited a sales rep of the unit in Sao Paul=
o.
> He exclaimed =B3What?!, I have already sold more than 100 units without any
> license!!=B2 Such unit is now proliferated everywhere =8B even myself now us=
e at
> home and also see two New York Times articles distributed with my previou=
s
> list =B3(03/07/02) Wide spreading popularity of broadband wireless Internet=
=B2 at;
> http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/gu-l/2002q1/date.html
>=20
>> Niccolo Machiavelli=B9s word (from his =B3The Prince, 1513) on Introducing C=
hange
>> reads as follows;
>>=20
>>> =B3And it ought to be remembered that there is nothing more difficult to =
take
>>> in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, th=
an to
>>> take the lead in the introduction of new order to things. Because the
>>> innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old
>>> conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the n=
ew.
>>> This coolness arises partly from fear of the opponents, who have the la=
ws on
>>> their side, and partly from the incredulity of men, who do not readily
>>> believe in new things until they have had a long experience of them.
>>>=20
>>> Thus, it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the opportuni=
ty to
>>> attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others defend lukewarmly..=
.=B2
>>>=20
> As Forrester says in his paper, mind-change is the most difficult thing, =
but
> tenacious persistence and patience will prevail and are the key ingredien=
ts of
> success.
>=20
(4) In summary, as soon as I conceived our peace gaming approach with
distributed computer simulation system, I realized the necessity of the
followings;
> 1. Packet-switching telecom network (a basis of Internet),
>=20
>> This was invented by Dr. Paul Baran at Rand Corporation in the early 196=
0s,
>> -- he is now one of our list members and a strong supporter of our proje=
cts.
>> As mentioned above, I worked on its expansions to various overseas count=
ries
>> (particularly to Japan), albeit narrow-band version at that time. We ar=
e now
>> working on its second round, i.e., broadband version, starting with our
>> Amazon project =8B see GUS/Brazil/Amazon section at;
>>=20
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GLOSAS_USA/Page/List_of_Activities.h=
tm>>
l
>=20
> 2. E-mail,
>=20
>> This is necessary for communication among colleagues and game players =8B =
as
>> mentioned above, this was accomplished with its use by more than 525 mil=
lion
>> people around the world nowadays.
>=20
> 3. Modeling experts, tech support, game players, etc.
>=20
>> We are now start working on this with the establishment of our Global
>> University System under the UNESCO/UNITWIN Networking Program.
>>=20
We would like to spread and proliferate the System Dynamics to K-12 schools
around the world through the GUS, so that they can exercise collaboratively
on system analysis, policy makings, crisis management and negotiation skill=
s
for global socio economic and environmental issues via global Internet.
We still have a lot of things to do =8B very exciting and keeps me young,
too!!
Best, Tak
> ATTACHMENT I
>=20
> Biographical Sketch of Professor Jay W. Forrester
> Sloan School of Management
> Massachusetts Institute of Technology
>=20
> After contributing to the early development of digital computers and inve=
nting
> magnetic-core memory, Professor Jay W. Forrester pioneered "system dynami=
cs,"
> a computer simulation methodology for understanding complexity that exten=
ds
> far beyond servomechanisms and Cybernetics theory.
>=20
> Forrester applied scientific, quantitative, system analysis and computer
> simulation technology to complex socio-economic, bio- and eco-systems to
> evaluate how alternative policies affect growth, stability, fluctuation, =
and
> changing behavior.
>=20
> The well publicized book, "The Limits to Growth," by Donella and Dennis
> Meadows (Professor Forrester's student) was an extension of the "World
> Dynamics" model and book by Professor Forrester that indicated interactio=
ns of
> population, industrialization, agriculture, resources, and pollution on a
> global scale. Some said that the publication of this book triggered the =
first
> oil shock in the early 1970s and changed the world economy.
>=20
> The system dynamics cause-and-effect analysis based on feed-back theory, =
along
> with computer simulation modeling, is the best tool to understand the
> inter-relatedness and inter-dependency of various complex world phenomena=
.
>=20
> Under Forrester's leadership, pioneering schools are creating a new kind =
of
> pre-college education, starting in kindergarten, that is built on a syste=
m
> dynamics foundation. Such education becomes inter-disciplinary with the s=
ame
> computer simulation concepts applied to the environment, biology, history=
,
> literature, and economics. We can expect future leaders with expanded
> abilities for crisis management, policy making, and negotiation skills fo=
r
> corporate, national, and global issues. The resulting deeper understandin=
g of
> social and economic complexity, arising from this new kind of education, =
will
> enhance mutual understanding among people of different countries and cult=
ures,
> and facilitate world peace and a sustainable development of humankind in =
the
> 21st century.=20
Forrester received numerous national and international awards and honors.
> ATTACHMENT II=20
Biographical Sketch of Professor Jay W. Forrester
Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Professor Forrester directed the System Dynamics Program at the MIT Sloan
School of Management until 1989.
System dynamics has been developed over the last four decades as a way to
combine practical knowledge about structure and policies in social systems
with computer simulation to explain behavior. System dynamics is a process
for showing how alternative policies affect growth, stability, fluctuation,
and changing behavior in corporations, cities, and countries.
Professor Forrester has two principal activities. First, he is applying
system dynamics to understanding behavior of economic systems. Along with
other insights into how microstructure causes macrobehavior, the System
Dynamics Economic Model demonstrates the basis for the economic long wave,
which is the major rise and fall of economic activity that has created grea=
t
depressions at intervals of 45 to 70 years. Second, with the help of
students, he is developing materials for using system dynamics as a
foundation for kindergarten through 12th grade education.
Professor Forrester received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering fro=
m
the University of Nebraska in 1939, and the M.Sc degree from M.I.T. in 1945=
.
He has been awarded honorary doctorates from nine universities.
Among his honors: Valdemar Poulsen Gold Medal from the Danish Academy of
Technical Sciences (1969); Medal of Honor, Institute of Electrical and
Electronics Engineers (1972); National Inventors Hall of Fame (1979); James
R. Killian Faculty Achievement Award, M.I.T. (1987); National Medal of
Technology (1989).
Before creating the field of system dynamics, Professor Forrester grew up o=
n
a Nebraska cattle ranch, and from 1945 to 1956 was a pioneer in the early
development of digital computers. He invented the random-access,
coincident-current magnetic storage that, for two decades, was the standard
memory device for digital computers.
January, 2001
D3940-3
List of Distribution
Professor Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management
Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
E60-389, System Dynamics Group
30 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139
617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405
jforestr@mit.edu
http://www.sysdyn.mit.edu
Mr. John McLeod (Fax: 619-277-3930)
Founder
Society for Computer Simulation International (SCSI)
8484 La Jolla Shores Drive
La Jolla, CA 92037
858-454-0966
mcleod@sdsc.edu
mcleod@Sds.Sdsc.Edu
**********************************************************************
* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA *
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.) *
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education *
* Founder of CAADE *
* (Consortium for Affordable and Accessible Distance Education) *
* President Emeritus and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of *
* Global University System (GUS) *
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-3998, U.S.A. *
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Fax: 718-939-0656 (day time only--prefer email) *
* Email: utsumi@columbia.edu; Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676 *
* http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/ *
**********************************************************************
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<HEAD>
<TITLE>(03/27/02) System Dynamics simulation and its K-12 education</TITLE>
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<BODY>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><<March 28, 2002>><BR>
Archived distributions can be retrieved by clicking “Correspondence&#=
8221; in our home page at <http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/>.<B=
R>
For those after 2/27/01, see or bookmark:<BR>
<http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/gu-l/> and click on “=
;Date,” for example. The most recent archives are the bottom lin=
e.<BR>
<BR>
Professor Jay W. Forrester <jforestr@mit.edu><BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE=3D"2">Mr. John McLeod <mcleod@sdsc.edu><BR>
</FONT><BR>
<B><U><BR>
Dear Professor Forrester:<BR>
</U></B><BR>
(1) In my previous msg of 3/21/02 to you, I said that I would briefly write=
you of my activities after I learned System Dynamics from you in late 1960s=
.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">(a) I spent one year as a Fulbright=
exchange student at the University of Nebraska (your alma mater), from 1954=
to 1955,<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">My uncle’s family has a green=
-house business in Lincoln, Nebraska for more than a half century.<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(b) I received my Ph.D. in chemical engineering from Dr. Donald Othmer (a g=
raduate of the University of Nebraska) at Polytechnic University in Brooklyn=
, NY, in 1964,<BR>
<BR>
(c) My theses was to analyze the rate of absorption with chemical reaction =
when SO2 and NOX gases were absorbed into liquid. I used its computer =
simulation (with several ordinary, highly non-linear differential equations =
and two-split boundary conditions) on a slow-time analog computer built by B=
ell Lab which was mounted on the Battleship, Missouri, and which was used to=
gun-tracking to shoot Japan, and on which General MacArthur signed the surr=
ender of Japan,<BR>
<BR>
(d) Switched to repetitive-analog computer at Shell Oil company to simulate=
chemical reaction and process control,<BR>
<BR>
(e) Used then the largest hybrid computer to simulate the extraction of sha=
le oil in a retort (with several four-dimensional, highly non-linear partial=
differential equations and three-split boundary conditions) while I was wit=
h Mobil Oil company in early 1960s. The hybrid computer was later used=
for the simulation of Eagle’s landing on lunar surface at Lincoln Lab=
at M.I.T.,<BR>
<BR>
(f) Switched from analog and hybrid computers to digital simulation languag=
e and acquainted with Prof. Jack Pugh who devised DYNAMO simulation language=
for your System Dynamics,<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">Learned System Dynamics and took so=
me courses at Sloan School in late 1960s.<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(g) Moved to Stone and Webster Engineering Company in Boston to simulate pe=
trochemical plant process control,<BR>
<BR>
(h) Created, organized and named Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCS=
C) in 1970 (Denver, CO as the Program Chairman) and in 1971 (Boston, MA as t=
he General Chairman),<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">In the Boston conference, we had a =
macro-system simulation session, and we heard about your World Dynamics acti=
vities. I got an idea of Peace Gaming (a term coined by me) at this se=
ssion. I then thought why not split Japan model to be developed and ma=
intained by Japanese and interfaced with other countries’ through data=
telecom network.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">This is, in a sense, the extension =
of analog computer, i.e., each amplifier of the analog computer corresponds =
to sub-model of each country (or sub-sector), and data telecom network corre=
sponds to wiring of amplifiers, thus creating massive, distributed parallel =
processing in global scale. Incidentally, I recall of my visit to you =
in early 1970s to describe this concept.<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(i) Moved to Mitsubishi Research Institute in Tokyo and introduced System D=
ynamics, system engineering and computer simulation technology to Japan in t=
he early 1970s,<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">1) Brought a System Dynamics study =
group to Sloan (taught by Prof. Ed Roberts) and others,<BR>
<BR>
2) Initiated the concept of Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gami=
ng with the use of distributed computer simulation models through "Glob=
al Neural Computer Network" (a term coined by me) in which each partici=
pating game player, with his/her own desktop computer, database and submodel=
, would correspond to a neuron, a router to a synapses, and Internet to nerv=
es of global brain.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">Vice President Al Gore used this te=
rm in a speech [Washington, D.C., 1994], as the result of one member of his =
staff receiving quite a good bit of list distribution material from me! <BR>
<BR>
Al Gore then continued with the following words:<BR>
<BR>
"The Department of Defense is investing well over $1 billion in the de=
velopment and implementation of networked distributed interactive simulation=
. This technology, which allows dispersed learners to engage in collaborativ=
e problem solving activities in real time, is now ready for transfer to scho=
ols and workplaces outside of the defense sector." [Speaking to communi=
cations industry leaders, January 11, 1994] <BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
The global peace gaming system is a computerized gaming/simulation to help =
decision makers construct a globally distributed decision-support system for=
positive sum/win-win alternatives to conflict and war. The idea involves in=
terconnecting experts in many countries via global Internet to collaborate i=
n the discovering of new solutions for world crises, such as the deteriorati=
ng ecology of our globe, and to explore new alternatives for a world order c=
apable of addressing the problems and opportunities of an interdependent glo=
be. Gaming/simulation is the best tool we have for understanding the world's=
problems and the solutions we propose for them. The understanding, with sci=
entific and rational analysis and critical thinking, would be the basis of w=
orld peace, and hence ought to be the basic principle of global education fo=
r peace.<BR>
<BR>
3) Jack Pugh’s info about the emerging commercial version of packet-s=
witching telecom network (through his neighbor Dr. Bolt, Chairman of BBN whi=
ch managed DARPANET, the predecessor of Internet) in the spring of 1973 made=
me to devote the spread of Telenet to various overseas countries, especiall=
y to Japan since its incorporation in 1976,<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(j) During my engagement on normative “peace gaming” with Bob N=
oel of the University of California in Santa Barbara in 1973, Jorgen Rander =
(one of your world dynamics group members) sent me an email from Oslo asking=
where Jack’s DYNAMO was located in GE’s time-sharing computer, =
since I requested Jack to do so before.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">This triggered my effort of deregul=
ating the Japanese telecom policies for the use of email which subsequently =
triggered de-monopolization and privatization of Japanese telecom industries=
, which then were emulated in many other countries — now almost all co=
untries have Internet access and over 525 million people use email,<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">Further information about the above=
can be found in my book draft/Chapter 1 “Personal Recollections on th=
e Inceptions of Peace Gaming and Global University System” at<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Bookwriting/Contents_of_Book.html<BR=
>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(k) Conducted in 1986 a gaming simulation on the US-Japan trade issues with=
the use of videoconferencing and a world economic simulation model, with pa=
rticipation of Prof. Lester Thurow of M.I.T. and others,<BR>
<BR>
(l) Conducted in 1987 a videoconferencing from M.I.T. to Tokyo via satellit=
e,<BR>
<BR>
(m) In the following decade, conducted “Global Lecture Hall (GLH)R=
21; multipoint-to-multipoint, multimedia, interactive videoconferences spann=
ing from Korea, New Zealand, Japan, many universities in North and South Ame=
rica, Europe, Middle-East and Scandinavia — once or twice every year,<=
BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">See more in my book/Chapter 2 menti=
oned in Item (1)-(j) above.<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(n) Thanks to these effort, I had the honor to receive in 1994 the Lord Per=
ry Award for Excellence in Distance Education, the highest honor in the now =
emerging e-learning field.<BR>
<BR>
(o) Further info may be found in the followings;<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">1) “Global University for Glo=
bal Peace Gaming,”<BR>
Paper presented at The 22nd International Conference of The International S=
imulation and Gaming Association (ISAGA) Kyoto, Japan: 15-19 July, 1991(hard=
copy)<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Bookwriting/PART_I/Chapter_V/ISAGA_P=
aper.html<BR>
<BR>
2) “Quest for Global Peace (A Personal Recollection),” Paper pr=
esented at Global Peace Assembly Organized by The Vice President of the Repu=
blic of China and The Federation of World Peace and Love (FOWPAL), etc., Tai=
pei, Taiwan, August 12 to 19, 2001<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GPA-Taipei_8-15 01/Quest_for_GP.html=
<BR>
<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">(p) In order to realize our Global=
ly Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming, we are now forging ahead to est=
ablish the followings;<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">1) Global University System (GUS),<=
BR>
2) Global Broadband Internet (GBI),<BR>
3) Global Service Trust Fund (GSTF).<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">You may find further info about the=
m at<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><OL><LI><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“Synopsis of Global University Sy=
stem, July 12, 2001”<BR>
</FONT></OL><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">http://www.friends-partners.or=
g/GLOSAS/Global_University/Global%20University%20System/Synopsis_7-12-01.htm=
l<BR>
<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><OL><LI><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“GLOSAS Projects for=
Closing Digital Divide,”<BR>
</FONT></OL><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">Paper published in InterMedia =
(April, 2001, Vol. 29, No. 2, Pages 4 to 8) with title of “Using broad=
band to close the digital divide,” International Institute of Communic=
ations (IIC), London, United Kingdom (hard copy)<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Manaus%20Workshop/InfoDev_Applicatio=
n/InfoDev_Prop_Final_Web/Appendices/Appendix_V_GLOSAS_Projects/Closing_Dig_D=
iv_01152%20(Wo.htm<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
<B><U>Dear E-Colleagues:<BR>
</U></B><BR>
(2) Professor Forrester (See his bio in ATTACHMENT I and II below) kindly p=
rovided me with the following materials (attached with this msg);<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><OL><OL><LI><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“From the Ranch to System Dyn=
amics: An Autobiography” (D-4197-3.JWF Biography.pdf) (106 KBytes),
</FONT><LI><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“Learning through System Dynamics as =
Preparation for the 21st Century” (D-4434-3.21stCent.pdf) (61 KBytes),
</FONT><LI><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers=
221; (D-4665-4.SD&K-12 teachers.pdf) (1 MBytes),
</FONT><LI><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“Counterintuitive Behavior of Social =
Systems” (D-4468-2.Counterintuitive.pdf) (249 KBytes).<BR>
</FONT></OL></OL><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
Along with the establishment of Global University System (under the UNESCO/=
UNITWIN Networking Program) (*) with the Global Broadband Internet and E-Rat=
e of Global Service Trust Fund for K-12 schools (as proposed in our Amazon P=
roject (**)), we will forge ahead to spread and proliferate the System Dynam=
ics in order to realize the Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gamin=
g through Global Neural Computer Network — particularly and hopefully,=
with the participation of K-12 youngsters around the world.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">(*) See<BR>
(A) <FONT SIZE=3D"2">http://www.unesco.org/education/educprog/unitwin/index.h=
tml<BR>
</FONT>(B) http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/Global_University/Global%=
20University%20System/UNESCO_NGO/UNITWIN/UNITWIN_Agreement/UNITWIN_Agreement=
.html<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">(**) see the materials in the Secti=
on “GUS/Brazil/Amazon in the Section of Global University System (GUS)=
in<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GLOSAS_USA/Page/List_of_Activities.h=
tml<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
Pls enjoy reading those materials.<BR>
<BR>
(3) As I was reading his paper (Item (2)-1), I was very much impressed that=
, even such an eminent professor as Forrester at such a prestigious institut=
ion as M.I.T. encountered with many difficulties of the so-called “min=
d-change,” particularly with bureaucrats.<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
(a) During my effort of deregulating the Japanese telecom policies for the =
use of email mentioned in the above Item (1)-(j), I also encountered with se=
vere opposition from the Japanese bureaucrats — see Mr. Yoshio Utsumi&=
#8217;s (then the deputy minister of the Japanese Post and Telecom and now t=
he Director-General of the International Telecom Union) regretting confessio=
n “What a stupid thing we did!” in Section III-E of my paper =
220;Quest for Global Peace” at<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GPA-Taipei_8-15-01/Quest_for_GP.html=
#anchor249834<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">(b) When I submitted our grant appl=
ication to the InfoDev of the World Bank to experimentally install broadband=
wireless Internet units in Florianopolis, Brazil in 1996, it was declined s=
aying that its use required license in Brazil. A few weeks later, I vi=
sited a sales rep of the unit in Sao Paulo. He exclaimed “What?!=
, I have already sold more than 100 units without any license!!”  =
;Such unit is now proliferated everywhere — even myself now use at hom=
e and also see two New York Times articles distributed with my previous list=
“</FONT><FONT FACE=3D"Monaco"><TT>(03/07/02) Wide spreading popularity =
of broadband wireless Internet” at;<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/gu-l/2002q1/date.html<BR>
<BR>
</TT></FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">Niccolo Machiavelli’s wo=
rd (from his “The Prince, 1513) on Introducing Change reads as follows=
;<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">“And it ought to be remembere=
d that there is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to con=
duct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introdu=
ction of new order to things. Because the innovator has for enemies al=
l those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders =
in those who may do well under the new. This coolness arises partly fr=
om fear of the opponents, who have the laws on their side, and partly from t=
he incredulity of men, who do not readily believe in new things until they h=
ave had a long experience of them.<BR>
<BR>
Thus, it happens that whenever those who are hostile have the opportunity t=
o attack they do it like partisans, whilst the others defend lukewarmly...&#=
8221;<BR>
<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">As Forrester says in =
his paper, mind-change is the most difficult thing, but tenacious persistenc=
e and patience will prevail and are the key ingredients of success.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">(4) In summary, as soon as I conce=
ived our peace gaming approach with distributed computer simulation system, =
I realized the necessity of the followings;<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">1. Packet-switching telecom network=
(a basis of Internet),<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">This was invented by Dr. Paul Baran=
at Rand Corporation in the early 1960s, -- he is now one of our list member=
s and a strong supporter of our projects. As mentioned above, I worked=
on its expansions to various overseas countries (particularly to Japan), al=
beit narrow-band version at that time. We are now working on its secon=
d round, i.e., broadband version, starting with our Amazon project — s=
ee GUS/Brazil/Amazon section at;<BR>
http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/GLOSAS_USA/Page/List_of_Activities.h=
tml<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
2. E-mail,<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">This is necessary for communication=
among colleagues and game players — as mentioned above, this was acco=
mplished with its use by more than 525 million people around the world nowad=
ays.<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
3. Modeling experts, tech support, game players, etc.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">We are now start working on this wi=
th the establishment of our Global University System under the UNESCO/UNITWI=
N Networking Program.<BR>
<BR>
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier">We would like to spre=
ad and proliferate the System Dynamics to K-12 schools around the world thro=
ugh the GUS, so that they can exercise collaboratively on system analysis, p=
olicy makings, crisis management and negotiation skills for global socio eco=
nomic and environmental issues via global Internet.<BR>
<BR>
We still have a lot of things to do — very exciting and keeps me youn=
g, too!!<BR>
<BR>
Best, Tak<BR>
<HR ALIGN=3DCENTER SIZE=3D"3" WIDTH=3D"95%"></FONT><FONT FACE=3D"Verdana">
</FONT>
<P ALIGN=3DCENTER>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><B><U>ATTACHMENT I<BR>
<BR>
</U>Biographical Sketch of Professor Jay W. Forrester<BR>
Sloan School of Management<BR>
Massachusetts Institute of Technology=20
</B></FONT>
<P>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
After contributing to the early development of digital computers and invent=
ing magnetic-core memory, Professor Jay W. Forrester pioneered "system =
dynamics," a computer simulation methodology for understanding complexi=
ty that extends far beyond servomechanisms and Cybernetics theory.<BR>
<BR>
Forrester applied scientific, quantitative, system analysis and computer si=
mulation technology to complex socio-economic, bio- and eco-systems to evalu=
ate how alternative policies affect growth, stability, fluctuation, and chan=
ging behavior.<BR>
<BR>
The well publicized book, "The Limits to Growth," by Donella and =
Dennis Meadows (Professor Forrester's student) was an extension of the "=
;World Dynamics" model and book by Professor Forrester that indicated i=
nteractions of population, industrialization, agriculture, resources, and po=
llution on a global scale. Some said that the publication of this book=
triggered the first oil shock in the early 1970s and changed the world econ=
omy.<BR>
<BR>
The system dynamics cause-and-effect analysis based on feed-back theory, al=
ong with computer simulation modeling, is the best tool to understand the in=
ter-relatedness and inter-dependency of various complex world phenomena.<BR>
<BR>
Under Forrester's leadership, pioneering schools are creating a new kind of=
pre-college education, starting in kindergarten, that is built on a system =
dynamics foundation. Such education becomes inter-disciplinary with the same=
computer simulation concepts applied to the environment, biology, history, =
literature, and economics. We can expect future leaders with expanded =
abilities for crisis management, policy making, and negotiation skills for c=
orporate, national, and global issues. The resulting deeper understanding of=
social and economic complexity, arising from this new kind of education, wi=
ll enhance mutual understanding among people of different countries and cult=
ures, and facilitate world peace and a sustainable development of humankind =
in the 21st century.=20
</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P ALIGN=3DCENTER>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
Forrester received numerous national and international awards and honors.=20
</FONT>
<P>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
<HR ALIGN=3DCENTER SIZE=3D"3" WIDTH=3D"95%"></FONT><FONT FACE=3D"Verdana">
</FONT>
<P ALIGN=3DCENTER>
<BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><B><U>ATTACHMENT II <BR>
</U></B></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE><FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><B>Biographical Sketch of =
Professor Jay W. Forrester<BR>
Sloan School of Management<BR>
Massachusetts Institute of Technology=20
</B></FONT>
<P>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
<BR>
Professor Forrester directed the System Dynamics Program at the MIT Sloan S=
chool of Management until 1989.<BR>
<BR>
System dynamics has been developed over the last four decades as a way to c=
ombine practical knowledge about structure and policies in social systems wi=
th computer simulation to explain behavior. System dynamics is a proce=
ss for showing how alternative policies affect growth, stability, fluctuatio=
n, and changing behavior in corporations, cities, and countries. <BR>
<BR>
Professor Forrester has two principal activities. First, he is applyi=
ng system dynamics to understanding behavior of economic systems. Alon=
g with other insights into how microstructure causes macrobehavior, the Syst=
em Dynamics Economic Model demonstrates the basis for the economic long wave=
, which is the major rise and fall of economic activity that has created gre=
at depressions at intervals of 45 to 70 years. Second, with the help o=
f students, he is developing materials for using system dynamics as a founda=
tion for kindergarten through 12th grade education.<BR>
<BR>
Professor Forrester received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering fro=
m the University of Nebraska in 1939, and the M.Sc degree from M.I.T. in 194=
5. He has been awarded honorary doctorates from nine universities. &nb=
sp;<BR>
<BR>
Among his honors: Valdemar Poulsen Gold Medal from the Danish Academy of Te=
chnical Sciences (1969); Medal of Honor, Institute of Electrical and Electro=
nics Engineers (1972); National Inventors Hall of Fame (1979); James R. Kill=
ian Faculty Achievement Award, M.I.T. (1987); National Medal of Technology (=
1989).<BR>
<BR>
Before creating the field of system dynamics, Professor Forrester grew up o=
n a Nebraska cattle ranch, and from 1945 to 1956 was a pioneer in the early =
development of digital computers. He invented the random-access, coinc=
ident-current magnetic storage that, for two decades, was the standard memor=
y device for digital computers.<BR>
<BR>
January, 2001<BR>
D3940-3<BR>
<HR ALIGN=3DCENTER SIZE=3D"3" WIDTH=3D"95%"></FONT><FONT FACE=3D"Verdana">
</FONT>
<P ALIGN=3DCENTER>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><B><U>List of Distribution=20
</U></B></FONT>
<P>
<FONT FACE=3D"Courier"><BR>
Professor Jay W. Forrester<BR>
Professor of Management<BR>
Sloan School of Management<BR>
Massachusetts Institute of Technology<BR>
E60-389, System Dynamics Group<BR>
30 Memorial Drive<BR>
Cambridge, MA 02139<BR>
617-253-1571<BR>
fax: 617-258-9405<BR>
jforestr@mit.edu<BR>
http://www.sysdyn.mit.edu<BR>
<BR>
<FONT SIZE=3D"2">Mr. John McLeod (Fax: 619-277-3930)<BR>
Founder<BR>
Society for Computer Simulation International (SCSI)<BR>
8484 La Jolla Shores Drive<BR>
La Jolla, CA 92037<BR>
858-454-0966<BR>
mcleod@sdsc.edu<BR>
mcleod@Sds.Sdsc.Edu<BR>
</FONT>********************************************************************=
**<BR>
* Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman, GLOSAS/USA  =
; &nb=
sp;*<BR>
* (GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in the U.S.A.) *<BR>
* Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education *=
<BR>
* Founder of CAADE &n=
bsp; =
&nbs=
p; &n=
bsp; *<BR>
* (Consortium for Affordable and Accessible Distance Education)  =
; *<BR>
* President Emeritus and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of &nbs=
p; *<BR>
* Global University System (GUS) =
&nbs=
p; &n=
bsp; *<BR>
* 43-23 Colden Street, Flushing, NY 11355-3998, U.S.A. &n=
bsp; *<BR>
* Tel: 718-939-0928; Fax: 718-939-0656 (day time only--prefer email) *<BR>
* Email: utsumi@columbia.edu; Tax Exempt ID: 11-2999676 &=
nbsp; *<BR>
* http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/ &nb=
sp; &=
nbsp; *<BR>
**********************************************************************<BR>
<BR>
</FONT>
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