[FPSPACE] Manned Flight and dealing with the impact hazard

[E.P. Grondine]

I'll combine my replies into one post:

"The notion that 90-95% of people in North America
died as the result of a comet impact in 10,900 
BCE is moonshine. We don't even know the human 
population of North America at that time - or 
500 years ago, for that matter."

Actually, David, we can form some rough guesses 
as to death rate based on quarry "abandonment".
It's around 90 to 95%.

"Asteroid mitigation is not a good justification 
for piloted spaceflight (except in Bruce Willis 
flicks). Robots can do the job more cheaply. In 
fact, given that we haven't flown people beyond 
LEO in nearly 40 years, handing the job to humans
would introduce unacceptable risk."

It isn't mitigation that's the driver, David, it's 
DETECTION. See the CAPS study at NSS for
details. Note especially the use of Solid State 
Heat Capacity Lasers for mitigation, which also 
have ABM uses.
 
"And, besides, there's no obvious justification 
for a dramatic increase in our current level of 
effort vis-a-vis asteroid mitigation. If one 
wishes to justify a space program, then this is 
barking up the wrong tree."

The impact hazard has two components, asteroids 
and COMETS. I suggest you read my book, as it is
a catalogue of suspected and confirmed recent 
impacts in the Americas. 

In other words, David, the space leadership 
of other nations may hold different views on 
the level of this hazard than you do, and you 
may wish to take that into consideration when 
analyzing their plans.

Now Jens:

"On the Rio Cuarto craters Wikipedia says to-day: "There is
currently some controversy as to whether these structures
are actually produced by impacts, or by Aeolian surficial
processes, which form many similar features in that region;"
I take that to mean the issue is still open."

Not among paleoclimatologists who have spotted the 
2,360 BCE climate collapse. Nor among several 
archaeologists.

The Mayan dates for this from Palenque are now 
confirmed.

I correspond with many of the people working with
recent impacts, and I can tell you that NASA has
been of too little help, or none at all.

Finally, in my opinion both Weiler and Morrison 
need to be relieved.
E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas



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