[FPSPACE] Future of ISS

[E.P. Grondine]

Hi Morris - 

Even though this may sound strange to you, here's my analysis:
> There seem to be a lot of unresolved questions 
> on the future of Constellation and of NASA's 
> human spaceflight program in general.

You have to look back at Griffin's vision for NASA's 
future to understand where that confusion came 
from. My take: Griffin wanted to kill ISS as fast
as possible, and use the manned Moon effort simply as a 
test vehicle for manned Mars flight. He tried his
best to lock NASA into that, and Thiokol was 
Griffin's sponsor.

Check out Griffin's vision, which I posted above.

> One issue that needs to be addressed is NASA's 
> ongoing participation in ISS.

Nobody is going to throw away that investment, 
as Griffin wanted to do.

> It has been mentioned that funding for US 
> participation does not currently extend beyond 
> 2015, but of course, this could change as 
> budgets are doled out.

There's a new administration in DC, and team 
Obama's space vision and goals differ from those
of Griffin.

> But how serious is this? 

Not very.

> Let's hypothetically consider the possibility 
> that a cash-strapped US government will pull 
> out of the project at this date. Orion will not
> be ready for crews before this date. 

Big assumption there. Orion is on track, and may 
be ready for use with the EELVs well before 2015. 

ARES 1 is not on track, and never will be.

> Pressure from overdependence on Russian Soyuz 
> flights will surely rattle some people in the 
> Beltway. 

There's also the option of running shuttle for a 
few more years to close the gap.

> It could be a difficult situation for bean 
> counters and lawmakers. 

The stick is the budget drag.

> Pulling out of ISS could reduce dependence on 
> Russia and save money for NASA's next projects.

Discussion of the US space program has been 
dominated by manned Mars "enthusiasts" for 
quite a while. That's probably going to end.

> Sure, this is a worst-case scenario, but we 
> can't realistically ignore any possibility. 

I think you can rule that one out. With any 
kind of luck, and nothing unforeseen, I expect 
China to enter ISS around 2017.

CAPS will most likely be built on an 
international basis.

> Things are very strange with the entire space 
> program, both economically and politically.

See Griffin's vision, above. Member of the
Mars Society.

> Of course, it would also complicate the 
> near-term objectives for Orion. What would you 
> do with Orion in Earth orbit, without ISS? 
> Could the USA elect to withdraw temporarily 
> from ISS, then return like a prodigal son and 
> start sending crews back there?

I don't think that's what will happen. Given the
permanent problems with the stick, the only
question is whether the US will go with EELVs
or with EELVs and Direct.

We'll know that after the 60 day studies. 

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas


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