[FPSPACE] Concurrence on the Launch Pad

[Jens Kieffer-Olsen]

-----Original Message-----
From: E.P. Grondine [mailto:epgrondine at hotmail.com] 
Sent: Sunday, May 03, 2009 7:56 PM

> [...] see the Langley team's CAPS estimate here:
> http://www.nss.org/resources/library/planetarydefense/index.htm
>
> In other words, since comets present the bulk of the
> impact hazard, there is a requirement for manned
> spaceflight which no one ever realized existed before,
> and furthermore an unavoidable requirement: a fundamental
> shift in the paradigm of manned space flight.

 On the latter part we agree. 

 However, Morrison and his lot are justified in their focus
 on Near Earth Asteroids. In a technically advanced 25th
 century world we may live up the science fiction visions
 given in the planetary defense papers you point to, but
 to-day we need to limit our effort to the bare essentials.

 That is, detect, detect, detect!  And should a Tunguska-
 sized rock be identified to plan a visit, let's refine the
 orbital analysis, pinpoint the impact area, and evacuate
 it in good time. No need to send the marines or Bruce W. 

> Given Jens latest research into Baptistina, perhaps his
> rationalization is at an end.  On the other hand, denial
> is not just a river in Egypt...

 On the danger from BAF ( the Baptistina Asteroid Family )
 Bill Bottke states unequivocally: "We are in the tail end
 of this shower now. Our simulations suggest that about
 20 percent of the present-day, near-Earth asteroid
 population can be traced back to the Baptistina family."

 That makes BAF a greater threat than SW3. Maybe Ed Grondine
 should direct some of his concern in that direction?

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark