[FPSPACE] China's launch schedule

Fri Mar 27 14:46:12 EDT 2009

Ho John

The flights of Shenzhou 8,9 and 10 still have people scratching their heads!   The most recent statements from China indicate that Shenzhou 8 will be an unmanned docking with Tianging 1 and then 9 will be the first manned visit.

Originally the Chinese talked about SZ 8, 9 and 10 together and I think we have two possibilities.   One is that Tiangong 1 was originally "hidden" under the Shenzhou 8 name, the other is that the Chinese considered the option of flying two unmanned docking misions to Tiangong in case the first docking had some problems.   Maybe they are still keeping that option open?

My own thought is that Shenzhou 8 will simply be an unmanned dummy run to prove the docking technology and maybe extended lifetime of the space station ferry variant: so far Shenzhou has only flown for ~7 days and missions to Tiangong will extend beyond this (although Shenzhou 9 might not be a particularly long visit).   Thus, Shenzhou 8 will probably be recovered and then Shenzhou 9 takes the first three man up to the orbiting room.   See http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/07/content_10962762.htm 

I am interested what will be used to launch Tiangong 1.   The CZ-2F without the heavy launch escape system is said to be capable of placing ~9.5 tonnes into LEO, which is easily enough for the 8.5 tonnes Tiangong 1.   So, what are the announced heavier-lift CZ-2F/G and CZ-2F/H intended for, with their payload capavilities of around 12-12.5 tonnes?

Phil
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Charles, John B. (JSC-SA211) 
  To: Phillip Clark ; FPSPACE 
  Sent: Friday, March 27, 2009 6:04 PM
  Subject: RE: [FPSPACE] China's launch schedule

  Thanks, Phill!

  From the link, there is this information: "From 2011 to 2012, Shenzhou-8, Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 will be launched.  As far as I know, SZ-8 and SZ-9 are unmanned while SZ-10 will be manned. And all of the three Shenzhou spacecraft will be docked with the Tiangong-1."

  I have always assumed that Tiangong-1 will have a single docking port, and that Shenzhou-8, 9 and 10 will sequentially dock and then undock, leaving the single docking port available for the next mission in the sequence.  

  But every time I read a mission description, it makes no mention of undockings, only dockings.  For example, the quoted text says: ".the three Shenzhou spacecraft will be docked with the Tiangong-1."  

  This makes me wonder if the plan is to leave the orbital modules of Shenzhou's 8 and 9 docked to Tiangong-1, as was once hypothesized about Soyuz dockings to Soviet space station core modules.

  Can you between these options for me?

  John Charles

  Houston, Texas

  From: fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org [mailto:fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org] On Behalf Of Phillip Clark
  Sent: Friday, March 27, 2009 12:14 PM
  To: FPSPACE
  Subject: [FPSPACE] China's launch schedule

  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=5060.300

  This is perhaps the best forward projection of Chinese launches that anyone can get.

  Phillip Clark

    ----- Original Message ----- 

    From: E.P. Grondine 

    To: fpspace at friends-partners.org 

    Sent: Friday, March 27, 2009 4:28 PM

    Subject: [FPSPACE] China provides free comsat to Nigeria

    Good morning, 

    http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Nigeria_And_China_Sign_Pact_To_Replace_Faulty_Satellite_By_2011_999.html

    Remember that Nigeria is an oil producing country.

    It is clear that China intends to use the provision of free space services to developing countries as a peaceful foreign policy tool supporting international economic development.

    I've asked you fpspacers before about China's launch manifest, including out year projections on CZ 2h and CZ5 utilization, but no one has responded yet. Given the consequences for US, EU, Russian, and Ukrainian space service providers, this is a non-trivial question.

    E.P. Grondine
    Man and Impact in the Americas
    (write to me about the fpspace special)

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