[FPSPACE] Shooting down a North Korean Satellite launch

[James Oberg]

Under current conditions, what is the realistic likelihood that the North Koreans are telling the truth that they are building this rocket solely for space applications and research? I'd say, about as likely as their last orbital attempt succeeded -- as they still claim. And when their launch azimuth is directly over a populated region of Japan -- a region where their agents spend many years snatching innocent people off the streets, hauling them away for the rest of their lives to lock them in a 'spy camp' to teach North Korean agents how to be more effective in harming Japan, I'd cut the Japanese a lot of slack on what I'd deem 'trigger happy'. 

Otherwise, why not wait for the western launch site and head south over open ocean? 

A far more realistic threat that worries me is that the launch is a set-up, will not orbit a satellite, and the North Koreans will CLAIM it was shot down by the Japanese or the US. They then will go to the edge of war, even start shooting in some areas, and will 'need' to be mollified by major gifts and concessions from other countries.

The internal succession struggle in Pyongyang makes this a very explosive situation, and I think it will play out along the script that NorKorea has prepared.  

I think it has very, very little to do with space flight.



  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Phillip Clark 
  To: FPSPACE 
  Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2009 11:38 AM
  Subject: [FPSPACE] Shooting down a North Korean Satellite launch


  I am curious from a Space Law point-of-view what the legalities might be of shooting down a launch vehicle that is intended to place a satellite into orbit: of course, I am thinking of the planned North Korean launch at present.

  We are not in a time of war and the North Korean satellite is being described as being for communications.   There are reports of US and Japanese government and other officials talking about shooting down the launch vehicle during its ascent.

  There have also been similar rumblings from Israel about the Iranian satellite programme, so it would be good to know what the legal situation is rather than the emotive political retoric.

  Phillip Clark


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