[FPSPACE] Is another Siberian apocalypse close at hand?

[Jens Kieffer-Olsen]

-----Original Message-----
From: E.P. Grondine [mailto:epgrondine at hotmail.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 6:20 AM

> > Less than 1 in 100 such events is it cost-justified
> > to prevent ( regardless of whether Bruce Willis is
> > willing to forfeit his fee ), the rest may be ignored
> > ( Southern Ocean, Arctic, Antarctic, etc. ), or
> > responded to by simply evacuating people in the firing
> > line.
>
> For some reason (perhaps wishful thinking) you 
> seem to think we can forecast exact impact points.
> We can't.

 Of course we can. We know for example that Apophis cannot
 impact Europe, Africa, or Australia in 2036:
 
http://www.bukisa.com/articles/31113_the-end-of-the-world-the-asteroid-apoph
is-may-hit-earth-in-2036

 Quote:
 "So, if Apophis does hit Earth in 2036, where, exactly,
 will it hit? [...] scientists are fairly certain that
 the asteroid would hit in one of 3 large areas.  The
 first - and most likely - would be an impact in the
 Pacific Ocean, just off the coast of California.  This
 would result in a double shockwave of water screaming
 toward the West Coast of the United States, effectively
 vaporizing anything in its path for miles inland."
 End quote.

 One would have thought that a clever CA politician such
 as Dana Rohrabacher had insisted that a transponder
 mission to Apophis be launched without delay in order
 to clarify the above threat? 

> Operationally, what we need is 45 minutes warning
> of a Tunguska type impactor to get people into shelter.
> For impact mega-tsunami, which have been occurring at
> a rate of 1 per 1,000 years, we need 2 to 3 days
> warning for coastal evacuation.

 We ought to have at least several days of warning, as
 long as an impactor is not approaching from a direction
 close to that of the sun.

 Let's detect in good time as many NEOs as possible, in
 order that we may deflect as early as possible as few
 as necessary.

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark