[FPSPACE] Is another Siberian apocalypse close at hand?

[E.P. Grondine]

Hi Jens - 

>Don Yeomans suggests 300 years between Tunguska-like events:
>http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/features.cfm?feature=1769

It was a long hard struggle to get NASA 
down from 1 per 1,000 years to 1 per 300.
But the data forced a revision.

Historically, Tunguska impacts have been 
occuring about 1 per 100 years.Whether that 
rate was high, low, or whether we are headed 
into a period of higher activity is currently 
unknown.

The late Gene Shoemaker thought we were headed
to a period of higher impact rates, and his
final opinion was made available by the Canadian
Geological Society. If he had not died in that 
auto accident, it would have saved me many keystrokes
and much aggravation.

>Less than 1 in 100 such events is it cost-justified to
>prevent ( regardless of whether Bruce Willis is willing to
>forfeit his fee ), the rest may be ignored ( Southern Ocean,
>Arctic, Antarctic, etc. ), or responded to by simply
>evacuating people in the firing line.

For some reason (perhaps wishful thinking) you 
seem to think we can forecast exact impact points.
We can't.

Operationally, what we need is 45 minutes warning
of a Tunguska type impactor to get people into shelter.
For impact mega-tsunami, which have been occurring at
a rate of 1 per 1,000 years, we need 2 to 3 days
warning for coastal evacuation.

CAPS is the best way of delivering that warning, 
and cost justified, while manned flight to Mars 
is currently impossible, as the back contamination
hazard has not been eliminated yet, among other
technical hurdles.

Cao Knee Men
E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas

PS - In the reporting, we're seeing US statements 
about international waters. It appears that China
thinks they are territorial waters. Not being 
familiar with the area and the claims, I will just 
state that China will have to negotiate with many 
of its neighbors these sensitive matters. I wonder
if the US naval operations were authorized by Obama,
or if they are another Bush legacy.


_________________________________________________________________
Hotmail® is up to 70% faster. Now good news travels really fast. 
http://windowslive.com/online/hotmail?ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_HM_70faster_032009
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/fpspace/attachments/20090310/2aff5a22/attachment.html