[FPSPACE] Is another Siberian apocalypse close at hand?
epgrondine at hotmail.com
Tue Mar 10 00:19:15 EDT 2009
Hi Jens -
>Don Yeomans suggests 300 years between Tunguska-like events:
It was a long hard struggle to get NASA
down from 1 per 1,000 years to 1 per 300.
But the data forced a revision.
Historically, Tunguska impacts have been
occuring about 1 per 100 years.Whether that
rate was high, low, or whether we are headed
into a period of higher activity is currently
The late Gene Shoemaker thought we were headed
to a period of higher impact rates, and his
final opinion was made available by the Canadian
Geological Society. If he had not died in that
auto accident, it would have saved me many keystrokes
and much aggravation.
>Less than 1 in 100 such events is it cost-justified to
>prevent ( regardless of whether Bruce Willis is willing to
>forfeit his fee ), the rest may be ignored ( Southern Ocean,
>Arctic, Antarctic, etc. ), or responded to by simply
>evacuating people in the firing line.
For some reason (perhaps wishful thinking) you
seem to think we can forecast exact impact points.
Operationally, what we need is 45 minutes warning
of a Tunguska type impactor to get people into shelter.
For impact mega-tsunami, which have been occurring at
a rate of 1 per 1,000 years, we need 2 to 3 days
warning for coastal evacuation.
CAPS is the best way of delivering that warning,
and cost justified, while manned flight to Mars
is currently impossible, as the back contamination
hazard has not been eliminated yet, among other
Cao Knee Men
Man and Impact in the Americas
PS - In the reporting, we're seeing US statements
about international waters. It appears that China
thinks they are territorial waters. Not being
familiar with the area and the claims, I will just
state that China will have to negotiate with many
of its neighbors these sensitive matters. I wonder
if the US naval operations were authorized by Obama,
or if they are another Bush legacy.
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