[FPSPACE] Failure is the expected result of current NASA NEO efforts

[Jens Kieffer-Olsen]

-----Original Message-----
From: E.P. Grondine [mailto:epgrondine at hotmail.com] 
Sent: Sunday, March 08, 2009 01:49 AM

> > You focus on hypothetical SW3 fragments, 
> > which is ok, but it's hard to discuss the 
> > unknown. 
>
> There's nothing theoretical about the SW3 fragments,
> and it appears that the Earth was hit by them 
> in 1930 (Rio Curaca) and 1935 (Rupunini).

 So, would it have been cost-justified to deflect those?
 Of course not!

 SW3 fragments the size you mention are not likely to
 cause much harm, since only a tiny fraction of Earth
 is in fact urbanized.

 Only if we know for a fact that severe damage
 is unavoidable is it cost-justified to attempt
 a deflection.

> > I wish to draw attention to a handful of known 
> > NEAs in the hope that we may verify or eliminate
> > the impact scenarios sooner rather than later.
>
> Once again, its comets that form the bulk of the 
> impact hazard, not asteroids. My opinion is 
> based on data for 13,000 years in the Americas.

 You are free to think so. But it's not statistics
 that determine, whether the first mega-death impactor
 due to hit Earth is a comet fragment or an asteroid. 

 That's why detection is so important. And by all
 means do lobby for NASA to keep tabs on the orbits
 of NEC fragments, as long as they are also directed
 to launch the necessary transponder missions to map
 the orbits of PHAs with the precision necessary to
 eliminate or confirm every potential collision course.    

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark