[FPSPACE] Faailure is the expected result of current NASA NEO efforts

[Jens Kieffer-Olsen]

-----Original Message-----
From: E.P. Grondine [mailto:epgrondine at hotmail.com] 
Sent: Thursday, March 05, 2009 11:33 PM

> uhhh Jens - 
>
> > Most impact scenarios will pinpoint the disaster area
> > early on.
>
> No matter how many times you write that, it will not make
> it true...
>
> Once again, the likelyhood of predicting any exact impact
> point on Earth of any fragment of Comet Schwassmann
> Wachmann 3 in 2022 if it is headed our way then is nil.
> zip. zero. 0.
>
> This is a comet, not an asteroid. In point of fact, if the
> fragment is dead, it will be a Dark Comet, as reflective as
> a chunk of charcoal. Likely size ranges: 30, 60, 90 meters
> diameter. It is going to take Infra red or radar to pick
> any of those up. Even if the fraagments are still outgassing,
> their travel times will be very fast, and unlike an asteroid
> no arc will be swept. They'll just be inbound, coming straight
> head on.

 If an attempt to deflect a comet fragment that small is deemed
 worthwhile, then the time of its impact is precisely known. And
 the impact site is therefore restricted to a narrow corridor of
 land.

 If on the other hand you can't spot it, and can't calculate its
 orbit, how the heck will you plan to deflect it?    

> As for Astronaut Schweikert's efforts, right about now I'm
> wondering if he needs driver for his golf cart. The ASE is
> focused on this now, and my hats off to him. Deflection
> discussions will be undertaken by the UN soon.

 As will global warming discussions, and talks pertaining to
 the global financial crisis?

> Damn it, Damn it, Damn it, Damn it, but I'm tired of this.
> It's difficult for me to type, and I'm simply exhausted.
> If Benny had not taken the Cambridge Conference over to
> promoting anti-global warming propaganda, somebody else
> who you believe would've told you this, and that would've
> been the end of it.
>
> Ed

 You focus on hypothetical SW3 fragments, which is ok, but 
 it's hard to discuss the unknown. I wish to draw attention
 to a handful of known NEAs in the hope that we may verify
 or eliminate the impact scenarios sooner rather than later.
 And BP has realized that asteroids and comets move at a
 speed entirely different from that of a man's career :-)   

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark




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