[FPSPACE] Failure is the expected result of current NASA impactdetection effort

[Jens Kieffer-Olsen]

-----Original Message-----
From: E.P. Grondine [mailto:epgrondine at hotmail.com] 
Sent: Sunday, March 01, 2009 10:16 AM

> From your comments about 2004 MN4, it appears that you
> still don't get it, though. We have until 2011, the next
> pass of Schwassmann Wachmann 3, to coordinate international
> observation efforts, including all ESA resources. The next
> SW3 observation pass after that is 2016-2017. Early tracking
> in 2022 will be necessary in any case.
>
> If deflection or destruction of any of SW3's fragments is
> needed it will be by 2022, and it will not be solely NASA's
> responsibility.
>
> I expect that all of this be coordinated internationally. 

 Well, if both some comet SW3 fragment and asteroid Apophis
 turn out having nasty orbits I think it could put NASA on
 overtime in a few years time.

 Should an SW3 impact be deemed certain, the approximate
 impact site will be known at the same time. If America is
 targeted, I wouldn't recommend the US Congress to pawn the
 continent's survival to other nations. Even NASA would have
 a hard time deflecting a fragment of a comet. And you seem
 to be aware that there will be only one short window open
 for deflection.

 Apophis as an Aten asteroid is much more benign, since it 
 provides numerous deflection windows. Only it needs a much,
 much harder push ( or pull ) after April 2029 than before. 

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark