[FPSPACE] original article of Japan report about NK rocket launchschedule July 4-8

[Charles Vick]

Based on what North Korea has already given notice to clear fishing in the
yellow sea through July 30, 2009 suggest that the launch from the West coast
facility Tongchang-ri is probably going to fly out over the yellow sea in a
near due south direction towards the equator not over South Korea and is
probably designed to place a satellite in near polar orbit that would be
placed in orbit before flying over the Philippines. The launch vehicle sent
to Musudan-ri will probably fly the same flight path previously charted in
late July or early August 2009. True North Korea has also warned of flight
over the East Sea/Sea of Japan but these are ballistic missile launch
corridors as seen in 2006. The probability of the North Koreans flying out
over North Korea mainland I submit is highly improbable because of internal
impact or failure issues. What they will do and in what direction they will
fly the No-dong-B remains unclear but it probably will be a near vertical
probe similar to the 2006 No-dong-A flights. 

 

Unha-2/Taep'o-dong-2 & the Pongdong-ri, or Dongchong-ri or Tongch'ang-dong
West Coast Facility Status

 

By C. P. Vick
6-4/18-2009

Senior Technical Analyst Globalsecurity.org

 

The Pongdong-ri, or Dongchong-ri or Tongch'ang-dong, launch facility in the
June 3, 2009 image as previously written and predicted by this author shows
that it is very close to being finished with little remaining in the
construction materials lay down yard beside the gantry umbilical tower. What
is important is the gantry umbilical tower has no gantry crane implying that
the booster is brought to the pad fully assembled payload and all on a 40
meter long erector transporter as seen in Musudan-ri, March 26, 2009
imagery. Therefore potentially it requires no gantry crane though one could
appear in the future. No personnel or vehicular traffic is present but the
booster and payload third stage arrived just over the last weekend [May
29-31, 2009] so the activity build up has just begun with much more to come.


In general it is believed that the overall launch infrastructure is nearing
completion soon. There is a new concrete road to enter the primary MIK
horizontal assembly building. It has not been possible to identify the
launch control center or VIP viewing areas and other sites for mobile
telemetry and mobile radar tracking equipment yet not that they are not
there because of the many differences in this newer facility as opposed to
Musudan-ri. Launch control perhaps could be an underground facility near by
on the general launch infrastructure.  No vertical processing assembly
building is anticipated to be built on the launch site at this time if it
ever appears bringing into question the requirements for such in the face of
the horizontal assembly operations based on the transporter erector.

I do wonder if the booster is not in fact a ground facility's systems test
launch vehicle and not a flight vehicle. South Korean intelligence sources
have suggest a similar possibility because it is assumed to be to early for
a flight test after the recent flight failure of the third stage. Certainly
a ground test missile sent to the Pongdong-ri, or Dongchong-ri or
Tongch'ang-dong site would not be unexpected but there is at present no way
openly to know the answer to this issue. The issue is concern about when the
gantry umbilical towers facilities check out flushing prior to flight test
hardware introduction is to be carried out or has it already been done.
Since the automated fueling facilities are completed it may have recently
been cleared for operations.

This west coast facility as early as December 8, 2008 was still in the
process of building the smaller diameter upper stage service levels on the
ground before installation. By February 17, 2009 it still did not have all
its service levels and there was no gantry crane present with a considerable
amount of construction materials hardware still remaining lying on the
ground meaning it was not ready yet. That has since been considerable
accelerated towards completion. 

There is a separate much more modern horizontal assembly MIK building and a
separate payload and last stage processing center separate from the main MIK
horizontal assembly building.  The separate MIK building for payload
processing clearly is for the third stage as well as the payload including a
separate test firing RCS systems building and explosive processing area
buildings. Here again there is not evidence of personnel activity during the
day indicating the possibility of busing of personnel to and from the site
infrastructure personnel housing areas work inside and the potential
possibility of night time work not normally observable in available open
source imagery.  Again the build up activity has just begun with much more
to come. So one can not assume such advanced activities should be present at
this time

 

To suggest a launch within two weeks is highly improbable and is more likely
to entail 50 or so days in the MIK to prepare the three stages and payload
assembly then it would be sent to the pad for 10-12 days prior to launch
making it mid to late July possibly before the July 30th South Korean
planned satellite launch. Since the two weeks have passed since the Unha-2
arrived on site and no launch is obviously in the immediate offing
presumably confirms the conclusions. To do all of this in less than a month
is highly improbable at this point in the Unha-2/Taep'o-dong-2 development.
They are no where close to a two week launch schedule be they experienced or
not and the idea of a third flight test so shortly afterwards the second
flight failure is questionable even if the third stage issues are resolved.
I have suggested both in interviews and in writing that they are on a
campaign to duplicate what Iran did to finally get a satellite in orbit but
North Korea has indeed threatened to launch an ICBM although it is a limited
range capability system called a (LRICBM). To launch a satellite would be
valid but an ICBM would in part invalidate their clam of a space program for
this booster proving the obvious duel purpose of the flights leading to
external export to Iran for hard currency. 

North Korea can fly out of this facility to polar orbit for an imaging/ERTS
or weather or communications satellite launch or for a limited range LRICBM
test without going over other countries territory. Whether an ICBM
configuration or a satellite launch version will be flown is not known at
this time.

Exactly what the end game of this activity in progress  remains unclear both
at the factory at Sanum'dong 14 miles north of Pyongyang in which only the
movements of the 40 meter long flatbed cargo carrier left side mounted
diesel engine with front and rear side mounted driving cabs yellow colored
strong back erector transporter were first seen. It is now reported that the
missile was as expected placed on the erector transporter and placed on a
long railroad car among three railroad cars utilized for this logistic
activity and that it is believed to have been shipped Pongdong-ri, or
Dongchong-ri or Tongch'ang-dong the new west coast launch facility
infrastructure and not to the Musudan-ni facility infrastructure on the east
coast. That journey started May 29, 2009 and should have taken both a train
and road transport trip lasting no more than 3 days at most.  

Again early in the week of June 15, 2009 the erector transported and rail,
road transportation from Sanum'dong missile research factory now to the
Musudan-ri launch site was reported to have taken place probably over the
last week according to South Korean Government sources. This could be the
second of two potential Unha-2/Taep'o-dong-2 flights being prepared or a
deception operation by North Korea. One missile is known to be at the
Pongdong-ri, or Dongchong-ri or Tongch'ang-dong launch site which could be
either a ground test vehicle or a flight test vehicle and now it appears
that the second missile is now located at Musudan-ri facility
infrastructure. This second missile could probably be flown in late July or
early August 2009

The last time during the January 31, through March 25, and its April 5, 2009
launch it took them about half the time than previously in 2006 to
accomplish these activities. Previously this year from the day it was
shipped from the factory to roll out to the pad was 52-54 day with it being
erected and assembled on the pad 12 day prior to launch that would now
suggest a mid to late July third launch attempt. That attempt all depends on
the final check assembly duration in the MIK horizontal assembly building
before being shipping to the launch pad. In 2006 they spent 20 days on the
pad but this year only 12 days on the pad. 

They had produced 20 boosters by 2006 according to intelligence revealed by
the then Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld separate from the R&D elements copies
so they are down to perhaps 18 boosters being updated as required at this
point back at the factory.

The three Medium range missiles on the Anbyeon in Southeastern Gangwon
province also called Kittaeryong east coast are apparently No-dong-A's
1,100-1,500 km range but not No-dong-B's with their 3,000-4,000 km range.
That is because they would only be able to fly them as vertical probes not
to full range. The No-dong-A has been flown over this range in a similar
manner back in 2006 to a single target circle. These launches are expected
between June 10th and July 31, 2009. 

 

The multiple missile launches are the typical military exercises held three
times yearly coincided with the DPRK geopolitical statement that is also
associated with their defensive systems testing training.

"While the official national designator of this facility is unknown, it is
common practice to name such facilities by using the name of the closest
populated place. In this case it could be either the small village of
Pongdong-ni or Kwi-gol, both of which were partially demolished during the
construction.

The designation Pongdong-ni Missile and Space Launch Facility is used here
for readability. Other names sometimes suggested include Tongch'ang-dong and
Dongchong-ni."  

 

 

 

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20090618TDY01305.htm

 

Yomiuri Shimbun

 


DPRK 'may launch missile toward Hawaii' / Govt. studying interception over
Aomori


The Yomiuri Shimbun

A long-range ballistic missile North Korea is believed to have been
preparing to launch from its Tongchang-ri facility in the country's
northwest highly likely will be launched toward Hawaii, which would take it
over Aomori Prefecture, according to analysis by the Defense Ministry. 

Sources said the ministry also believes such a launch will be made as soon
as early next month. 

Based on the analysis and intelligence gathered by U.S. reconnaissance
satellites, the ministry has moved into top gear its study on optimally
deploying Aegis-equipped destroyers equipped with Standard Missile 3 (SM-3)
interceptor missiles and ground-to-air Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3)
missiles. 

According to the ministry, it has been confirmed that North Korea has
missile launch bases in Kitteryong near the military demarcation line with
South Korea and at Tongchang-ri near the Yellow Sea, in addition to a base
at Musudan-ri in northeastern North Korea, where a long-range missile was
launched on April 5. 

At the Tongchang-ri facility, either a Taepodong-2 missile or an upgraded
Taepodong-2 was believed to have been brought from a missile manufacturing
facility near Pyongyang on May 30, according to the sources. 

Based on the assumption that this latest missile is a two- or three-stage
type and has capability equal or superior to the long-range ballistic
missile North Korea launched in April, the Defense Ministry predicted the
possibility of a launch toward Hawaii, with a launch toward Okinawa
Prefecture and Guam also seen a possibility. 

If it took the Okinawan path, when the first-stage booster detaches it could
fall in the vicinity of a Chinese coastal area and might anger China. 

In the case of the Guam path, the missile must overfly South Korea and
Japan's Chugoku and Shikoku regions, which means the booster would be dumped
onto a land area. Therefore, the ministry sees both possibilities as quite
low, according to the sources. 

In case of the Hawaii route, the booster could be dumped into the Sea of
Japan. If such a long-range test launch was successful, North Korea would be
able to pose a great military threat to the United States, which until now
has not regarded North Korean missiles as a threat to North America or
Hawaii. Therefore, the ministry concluded the Hawaii route is most probable
of the three scenarios, the sources said. 

However, while the distance from North Korea to the main islands of Hawaii
is about 7,000 kilometers, an upgraded Taepodong-2 only has a range of 4,000
to 6,500 kilometers. 

The ministry believes even if the missile took the most direct route over
Aomori Prefecture, it would not reach the main Hawaiian Islands, the sources
said. 

Though U.S. intelligence satellite images showed a missile launch pad had
already been set up at the Tongchang-ri base, it takes more than 10 days to
assemble and fuel a missile before launch, according to the sources. 

The ministry said it believes North Korea is likely to launch a missile
sometime between July 4 and 8, because the 1996 launch of the Taepodong-2
missile took place on the July 4 U.S. Independence Day (July 5 Japan time)
and July 8 falls on the anniversary of the 1994 death of former North Korean
leader Kim Il Sung. 

It came to light Wednesday that North Korea may have transported a missile
to a launch site in Musudan-ri. 

At the missile launch base in Kitteryong on the country's eastern coast,
preparations are under way to launch a Rodong missile, which can target all
of Japan, as well as a new medium-range missile, according to sources. 

Therefore, the ministry is considering starting preparations to intercept
missiles based on the possibility North Korea launches missiles from all
three bases simultaneously. 

(Jun. 18, 2009)

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/fpspace/attachments/20090619/ec7c4b22/attachment.html