[FPSPACE] original article of Japan report about NK rocket launch schedule July 4-8

[Peter Pesavento]

Via colleague Charles Vick

 

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20090618TDY01305.htm

 

Yomiuri Shimbun

 


DPRK 'may launch missile toward Hawaii' / Govt. studying interception over
Aomori


The Yomiuri Shimbun

A long-range ballistic missile North Korea is believed to have been
preparing to launch from its Tongchang-ri facility in the country's
northwest highly likely will be launched toward Hawaii, which would take it
over Aomori Prefecture, according to analysis by the Defense Ministry. 

Sources said the ministry also believes such a launch will be made as soon
as early next month. 

Based on the analysis and intelligence gathered by U.S. reconnaissance
satellites, the ministry has moved into top gear its study on optimally
deploying Aegis-equipped destroyers equipped with Standard Missile 3 (SM-3)
interceptor missiles and ground-to-air Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3)
missiles. 

According to the ministry, it has been confirmed that North Korea has
missile launch bases in Kitteryong near the military demarcation line with
South Korea and at Tongchang-ri near the Yellow Sea, in addition to a base
at Musudan-ri in northeastern North Korea, where a long-range missile was
launched on April 5. 

At the Tongchang-ri facility, either a Taepodong-2 missile or an upgraded
Taepodong-2 was believed to have been brought from a missile manufacturing
facility near Pyongyang on May 30, according to the sources. 

Based on the assumption that this latest missile is a two- or three-stage
type and has capability equal or superior to the long-range ballistic
missile North Korea launched in April, the Defense Ministry predicted the
possibility of a launch toward Hawaii, with a launch toward Okinawa
Prefecture and Guam also seen a possibility. 

If it took the Okinawan path, when the first-stage booster detaches it could
fall in the vicinity of a Chinese coastal area and might anger China. 

In the case of the Guam path, the missile must overfly South Korea and
Japan's Chugoku and Shikoku regions, which means the booster would be dumped
onto a land area. Therefore, the ministry sees both possibilities as quite
low, according to the sources. 

In case of the Hawaii route, the booster could be dumped into the Sea of
Japan. If such a long-range test launch was successful, North Korea would be
able to pose a great military threat to the United States, which until now
has not regarded North Korean missiles as a threat to North America or
Hawaii. Therefore, the ministry concluded the Hawaii route is most probable
of the three scenarios, the sources said. 

However, while the distance from North Korea to the main islands of Hawaii
is about 7,000 kilometers, an upgraded Taepodong-2 only has a range of 4,000
to 6,500 kilometers. 

The ministry believes even if the missile took the most direct route over
Aomori Prefecture, it would not reach the main Hawaiian Islands, the sources
said. 

Though U.S. intelligence satellite images showed a missile launch pad had
already been set up at the Tongchang-ri base, it takes more than 10 days to
assemble and fuel a missile before launch, according to the sources. 

The ministry said it believes North Korea is likely to launch a missile
sometime between July 4 and 8, because the 1996 launch of the Taepodong-2
missile took place on the July 4 U.S. Independence Day (July 5 Japan time)
and July 8 falls on the anniversary of the 1994 death of former North Korean
leader Kim Il Sung. 

It came to light Wednesday that North Korea may have transported a missile
to a launch site in Musudan-ri. 

At the missile launch base in Kitteryong on the country's eastern coast,
preparations are under way to launch a Rodong missile, which can target all
of Japan, as well as a new medium-range missile, according to sources. 

Therefore, the ministry is considering starting preparations to intercept
missiles based on the possibility North Korea launches missiles from all
three bases simultaneously. 

(Jun. 18, 2009)

 

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