[FPSPACE] Discovery reveals Mars is not a dead planet

[E.P. Grondine]

Jens wrote:

>I am not advocating closed-loop environmental systems. 
>On the contrary I expect regular cargo deliveries from Earth!

That's not a realistic expectation, Jens.

Most of the people here are intimately familiar with Soviet
work on closed loop life support systems.

A commonality in space fantasies is the complete ignorance of mass 
factions, often combined with fantasies about propulsion systems. 
That leads to unrealistic cost estimates, which then allow the 
fulfillment of some desired social goal:

>Seeing a parallel between the US Wild West Frontier of the
>the last millennium and the sand dunes of Mars to-day - as
>'Zubrinite Mars Nuts' undoubtedly do - is not quite the same
>display of ignorance as having a vision of how to speed up
>permanent human presence on Mars ( and the Moon ) through
>one-way or open-return-ticket trips.

>In the case of Mars, one-way trips are likely to remain just
>that. 

They're likely not to exist. Why would anyone on the Earth pay for 
them for someone else? PS - Falcon 9 is likely to be about as cheap
per kilo to orbit as can be done now.

>Old-age Martians would come to depend on newcomers to
>cater for their needs. Only a select few of the first wave
>would ever return to Earth. Although science fiction to-day,
>the concept is worth a thought 10-20 years before manned
>Mars return trips are actually planned.

In any case, its going to take 10 to 20 years to finish checking Mars 
out for possible life.

The last chance to use the Energia for manned Mars flight ended when 
the storage shed roof collapsed. In the US, Goldin had wanted to cut 
the STS over to a medium heavy launcher starting in 2005, with manned
Mars landings by 2020. He was under constant attack by some people 
here for many years, and his efforts to improve US launch systems were
hampered.

>In the case of the Moon, it's a damned lot easier to deliver
>cargoes to the right location. That's why it's a possibility 
>within the reign of the next US president - assuming he is
>re-elected in 2012. Of course, the condition would be that 
>trustworthy plans exist to pick up the early birds a few
>years or so after lunar touchdown. - And by all means let
>them be occupied with CAPS tasks in the meantime!

If the implementation of CAPS is done correctly, then you pick up 
long term stay at little additional marginal cost. Whether that 
capability is worth it will be decided around 2025, or perhaps around 
2017, in my opinion.

Ed

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