[FPSPACE] NK launching to space "still a ways off" (about a month): US Intelligence official

[Peter Pesavento]

http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090225_4155.php

 


North Korea a Month Away From Launch, U.S. Official Says


Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2009 

A high-level U.S. intelligence official said that North Korea would need
another month for a possible launch of its Taepodong 2 long-range missile,
the Associated Press reported yesterday (see
<http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090224_5219.php> GSN, Feb. 24).

There has been a significant increase in activity at a launch site in
northeast North Korea. Pyongyang said this week it is preparing a satellite
launch, but leaders in the United States and other nations remain wary of
the regime's intentions.

"Indicators of potential launch light up more each day, but we're still a
ways off," according to the intelligence official. Other observers have
suggested that the launch could be more imminent.

North Korea as of Feb. 18 did not appear to have moved any rocket to the
launch pad, said Tim Brown, head of the imagery analysis firm
Talent-Keyhole.com.

"There's more activity here than I have seen in two or three years," Brown
said. "I'd anticipate a launch within weeks, not days" (Jean Lee, Associated
Press/ <http://www.star-telegram.com/190/story/1220717.html> Fort Worth
Star-Telegram, Feb. 24).

The Taepodong 2 is designed to have a flight range of 4,200 miles, though
some observers said that any upcoming test could feature an upgraded missile
able to reach greater distances. The last test of the weapon ended in
failure when it failed less than one minute after takeoff in July 2006. That
launch led to a U.N. Security Council resolution
<http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaDprk/unscres_14102006.pdf>
prohibiting North Korea from conducting ballistic missile activities

The same launch pad is being prepared for the coming event, a U.S. defense
official told Reuters, also noting the absence so far of a rocket
(Reuters/Yahoo!News
<http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090224/wl_nm/us_korea_north_usa_1> , Feb. 24).

It might take post-launch imagery analysis to determine whether a launched
object was a missile or space booster, AP reported. A satellite's trajectory
would not be confused with that of a missile.

Another launch attempt would come amid the latest deadlock in the years-long
diplomatic effort to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons and
related operations (see  <http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20090224_9841.php> GSN,
Feb. 24). Tensions are also high between North and South Korea, where
President Lee Myung-bak has taken a hard line on relations with the
neighboring state since taking office one year ago.

Pyongyang could hope to use the missile test to force the United States to
enter into direct talks on the nuclear standoff, said analyst Kim Yong-hyun,
of Dongguk University in Seoul.

"The North has sent the ball back into the U.S. court," he said (Lee,
Associated Press).

U.S. President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso discussed
the nuclear and missile threats during their meeting yesterday in
Washington, Agence France-Presse reported.

"Regarding the missile issue, we discussed how the initial reactions are
important. After a missile is launched, we discussed that what is important
is how other, foreign nations would act," Aso said following the meeting.

Aso and Obama pledged to cooperate "to verifiably eliminate North Korea's
nuclear program and to deal with the problem of North Korea's missiles," the
White House said (Agence France-Presse/Spacewar.com
<http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Obama_Aso_seek_restraint_from_NKorea_offici
al_999.html> , Feb. 25).

There have been reports that the U.S. or Japanese militaries might use
missile defense assets in the region to try to bring down a North Korean
missile.

However, top Pentagon weapons tester Charles McQueary said in an annual
<http://www.cdi.org/pdfs/FY08DOTEAnnualReport.pdf>  report to lawmakers that
he lacked "high confidence" in the U.S. ability to intercept a North Korean
weapon, Bloomberg reported yesterday.

"Additional test data collected under realistic conditions is necessary to
increase confidence," he stated.

Others were more optimistic about the capabilities of the U.S. missile
shield, which includes land- and sea-based assets in the United States and
beyond.

The United States has "the upper hand overall" against missile threats, but
"it's always possible" that North Korea "could build countermeasures that
would fool our system," said Brookings Institution analyst Michael O'Hanlon.

U.S. interceptors are designed "to combat a simple threat from North Korea
and Iran, and that's a capability the nation has never had, and now we do,"
said Missile Defense Agency spokesman Rick Lehner. "We continue to
incorporate ground tests into our modeling and simulation with very good
results" (Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg
<http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afc4fyAJl1Tg> , Feb.
24).

 

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