[FPSPACE] Failure is the expected result of current NASA impactdetection effort

[Jens Kieffer-Olsen]

-----Original Message-----
From: E.P. Grondine [mailto:epgrondine at hotmail.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 12:59 AM

> Take a real good look at the second paragraph of this
> abstract:
>
> The NASA NEO Observation Program and the Impact Threat
> Uncertainty for Society 
> Lindley N. Johnson 
> NASA Headquarters SMD/PSD MS 3X63, 300 E Street, SW,
> Washington, DC, 20546, USA lindley.johnson at nasa.gov 
>
>Abstract

 [snippo first paragraph]

> Now Congress has directed NASA to extend the NEO
> search over the next decade down to objects as small
> as 140 meters – a population over 100 times as numerous
> as the 1 kilometer and larger objects. This will
> significantly increase the number of hazardous objects
> found and, because of their smaller size - which
> increases the difficulty of obtaining enough
> observations to accurately predict their orbits, it
> will also increase the number of objects for which the
> impact threat is uncertain. With the current observation
> assets, it may be months to years before enough data is
> collected to hopefully rule out, but potentially confirm
> an impact threat. 

 Well, Ed, fine with me! That IS the first step to be taken.

 The next stage requires of the US Congress to issue NASA
 with a two-pronged direction. Part one is to search for
 NEAs down to 50m, which is bound to identify one or more
 outright impactors and their associated collision dates.

 Part two is to instruct NASA to launch transponder missions
 AS A MATTER OF ROUTINE to all asteroids >100m, for which the
 impact risk cannot be eliminated in the short term due to
 Yarkovsky acceleration, composition, or shape.

 The obvious example of such an object is the 300m wide
 2004 MN4 aka Apophis, which will pass so close to Earth
 in 2029 that the uncertainty of the resulting slingshot
 effect leaves us with a non-zero risk of an Easter Day
 2036 impact.

 But the list is growing, and the danger presented by the
 500m wide 1999 RQ36 is similar to that from Apophis. The
 fact that the year of potential impact is 2182 is no
 excuse for corporate mañana-mentality. Just as Apophis
 needs to be diverted well BEFORE the 2029 close encounter,
 if diversion is necessary, likewise 1999 RQ36 should be
 diverted before its close encounter in 2060.  

 And don't ever let 1950 DA out of your mind! As we all
 know - or should know - it's the asteroid with the
 highest risk of impacting Earth that we know of to-day.
 And what's more, it's one mile wide. Fair enough, the
 year of potential impact is 2880, but there is no good
 reason whatsoever, why NASA shouldn't be directed to
 eliminate the uncertainty as soon as possible. It's
 a potential extinction-level event for God's sake,
 THE Sword of Damocles!

--
Jens Kieffer-Olsen
Slagelse, Denmark