[FPSPACE] Goodbye, Mike

[E.P. Grondine]

Hi Peter,

>Your commentaries on Griffin's speech were at times funny, and at other
>times very sad.

You may have noted the bitterness in them as well.

AND IN THE MEANTIME, WITHOUT DOUBT, WE WOULD HAVE CONTINUED TO MODIFY,
REFINE, AND INCREMENTALLY IMPROVE THE OLD APOLLO DESIGNS, TO THE POINT WHERE
THEY WOULD HAVE PROVIDED GREATLY ENHANCED EFFECTIVENESS BY THE PRESENT DAY.

IF WE HAD DONE ALL THIS, WE WOULD BE ON MARS TODAY, NOT WRITING ABOUT IT AS
A SUBJECT FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS.

>But Griffin is a creature of his times. BushWorld, that is.  "We create our
>own reality" (real quote, and attributed to Dick Cheney, although the quote
>was not connected to a specific cabinet-level Bush person that I recall, but
>the inference was there)

The fundamental fact that Griffin and most people
enthusiastic about manned Mars flight do not understand 
is that after Mariner 4 it was understood that Mars
is not Earth-like, and public support for manned 
space fell greatly. The public will support manned Mars flight,
but not at Apollo levels. They want Mars cheap; but
there's nothing cheap about space, despite what 
Tumlinson and Zubrin believe; the physics dictate
the engineering constraints, and these in turn 
dictate the money and resources required, in 
broad terms.

>It sounds like Griffin is advocating the Soviet design model (somewhat)-of
>incremental improvements while keeping assembly lines open.

There's nothing wrong with that strategy, and in my 
opinion we should go with the Direct design, which 
was not existant at the time of my analysis, hence
my mentions of Ares 5 in them.

>We're no longer in BushWorld.

We are, but in a way many never anticipated. Unfortunately we'll suffering from the results 
of the last administration's poor decisions for some time.

Bottom lines: You don't pay for a war with tax cuts for the wealthy.
Oil is a finite resource.

>I think US manned exploration may face challenges to its viability really
>soon-like perhaps this year (foreign events may overtake Obama's plans).

I've always pointed out that you don't solve any of the 
US's other problems by trashing its aerospace sector.

Which "foreign events" concern you? Are they related
to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Are you 
afraid to mention them for fear of offending someone
here and provoking them to a diatribe?

One big problem Bush et al had is that they did not 
understand that when you're President, you don't get to choose the
problems you face. They come at you and you deal with 
them. Bush's failure to deal with Katrina is a good 
example. Swine flu and the climate effects of the quiet sun 
and ozone holes are here in today's news.

On the other hand, Obama is one sharp cookie, as are
the members of his team.

Certainly Bush's legacy,both the massive economic problems and "foreign 
policy" problems, have taken up time that team Obama 
could have used to get the US space program back on 
course. My guess is that the 60 day studies will  result in a rock hard 
result in a clear understanding of US space options, and
give Worden time to get up to speed.

In other words, Obama will simply let the Thiokol lobbying 
effort burn itself out, and then move on firm ground. He 
will move on the problems on which there is consensus, 
and which are more urgent, while avoiding 
alienating those whose help he needs in dealing 
with those problems.

In any case, there is a piece of space "stuff" with 
Earth's name on it headed its way here now. The key space
problem in my opinion is we have no idea where it is nor 
when it will show up.

The sooner Weiler and Morrison are relieved, the 
faster action will be taken on this problem.

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas




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