[FPSPACE] More NK launches soon?

Wed Apr 29 09:02:39 EDT 2009

What is new I did hundred of repeat interviews with Japanese and South
Korean TV press while the Press in the west remained ...last twenty four
years. In those interviews I stating that that I thought the North was in a
launch campaign like the Iranians did leading up to the successful satellite
launch so that more TD-2's are expected from both launch sites. The West
coast launch site is nearing completion and is capable of handling both a
few TD-2's as well as a No-dong-B, 4,000 km demonstration. The No-dong-B is
deployed in North Korea and Iran and yes all of Europe is now under the gun.
Another flight out of the east coast site is also expected.  A second
nuclear test would allow North Korea and Iran to finally develop the 650 kg
warhead from what they learn from a new test and as for the limited
deployment of the remaining 39 kg "weaponizied" is the 1,158 kg No-dong-A
warhead design. The question is if Iran stopped the nuclear weapons design
development weapons work in 2003 but North Korea continued with a
development test in October 2006, as North Korea appears to have yellow cake
that Iran needs so did North Korea do the nuclear weapon design development
job for both Iran and North Korea's use with Iran's contribution in fuel
conversion, materials equipment and funds for both? Certainly the level of
cooperation seen in the missile programs would seem to circumstantially
strongly support this suggestion. We must assume that North Korean does have
the nuclear warhead weapons technology with the remaining fuel 39 kilograms
"weaponizied" and deployed as a weapons of last resort. The weapon deployed
is the No-dong-A with its 1,158 kilogram nuclear warhead. One more nuclear
test would give then the keys to a smaller 650 kg No-dong-B and
Taep'o-dong-2 class warhead and perhaps a hydrogen bomb design. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/5212630/North-Kore
a-now-fully-fledged-nuclear-power.html

http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/dprk/kwangmyeongseong-2.htm

Kwangmyeongseong-2 (Lodestar) Satellite Payload

Several years ago prior to when North Korea had opened an exhibit of a mock
up of its original satellite at its science museum in it capital North Korea
announced it would launch a Communication, weather and ERTS satellites in a
few years. Only the Kwangmyeongseong-1 and its model of the Taep'o-dong-1
with its launch gantry umbilical tower were shown with no images of the
other spacecraft models displayed.  It also displayed a communications
satellite mock up that was said to be several years from launching. This
satellite, presumably named Kwangmyeongseong-2 (Bright Lodestar-2), was
known to be the payload of the first and second attempted Taep'o-dong-2
(Unha-2, or Galaxy-2) launch. It had also been suggested that a weather
satellite could have been the payload for that launch.

The launch of the Kwangmyeongseong-2 (bright Lodestar) Satellite, planned
for April 2009, was expected to be a technology demonstration flight test.
The satellite payload mass was expected to be in the 100-170-250-550
kilogram range (verses a 1,158-650 kilogram dummy warhead). Observers
suggested it could turn out to be an Iranian, Chinese or Iranian/DPRK
satellite, based on a payload shroud fairing design previously displayed in
Iran. The launch was carried out during the day April 5, 2009, between 2-7
AM GMT (11 AM - 4 PM KST or 9 PM - 2 AM EST). The projected inclination of
about 40.6 degrees or a 90.5 degree easterly heading was not the usual type
for either a weather satellite or a COMSAT, but more like a test
experimental scientific satellite. Observers noted at the time that North
Korea had little choice but to use the one inclination available to it, so
as to only cross one country (Japan) for an extremely short period of time.

DPRK Third Satellite Launch Attempt Taep'o-dong-2 second Flight Test
Performance

The first stage performed as planned quite cleanly impacting about 280 km
from Japan. The second stage did stage and separate completing it full
throttled burns. Otherwise it would have collapsed on Japan northern
mainland. That second stage only went through 1/3 to 1/2 of its burn before
it was throttled down. The flight was to take 9 minutes 2 seconds (542
seconds) to get to orbit with about 4 - 2 seconds for start up. If the
stages were straight burns one right after the other at full power it would
have taken less than five minutes to get to orbit. That is a far higher
acceleration rate than desirable.

In fact the third stage would have had a coast period in its flight plan of
perhaps 120 seconds to the perigee height of the trajectory before firing to
complete orbital insertion burning perhaps 25 - 50 - 62 seconds estimated
but the second stage like Taep'o-dong-1 Scud-ER second stage used
step-throttling operation in its propulsion to stretch the second stage burn
to gain first altitude then range and velocity. That is the No-dong-A stage
was step throttled during the first third or half of the second stage burn.
It was initially at full power to get altitude then it was to shift to a
lower thrust in the vacuum of space of perhaps 65 % stretching out that burn
race to orbit of perhaps 232 - 235 seconds with a coast period. The on board
computer separated the payload and third stage shrouds on time and they
impacted down range within the planned Pacific Ocean impact zone 2,150 -
2,950 km some 2,300 km from Japan as intended but the second stage and third
stage separated on the proper sequence but the third stage did not fire. It
has come through from South Korea that indeed the third stage and payload
separated on time but the third stage did not perform as it was supposed to.
When studying the launch video it is clear that the third stage has
thrusters that are visible but they did not fire visibly prior to launch and
at launch indicating to me that the third stage was dead even before launch.
The payload went down with the third stage. The second stage apparently
performed properly through its burn before separation. The second stage and
third stage and payload began to go ballistic and lost velocity falling back
to earth. Before the reentry started the second and third stages separated
on time as planned. That is the shroud surrounds the third stage and payload
and its shroud elements impacted 2,300 km from Japan while the second and
third stage impacted 2,330 km from Japan. That is shroud impact was 3,200 km
from launch pad and second third stage impact was 3,230 km from the launch
site. In point of reality the payload was reduced to vapors with some pieces
surviving to sea impact in the same close vicinity to the second and third
stages. Meaning the second stage and third stages impacted fairly close to
one another.

It was previously indicated that both the second and third stages both
landed fairly close to one another 1,270 (2,300) - 1,300 (2,330) kilometers
from Japan or about 3,200km and (3,230km) from the launch pad. The first
impact point of 2,300 km is where the shrouds from the payload and third
stage impacted while the second point 2,330 km is where the second and third
stage and payload came down close to one another. The planned impact point
for the third stage and payload shrouds was 2,150 by 2,950 km. If the flight
had gone normal the trajectory from the pad to the second stage impact point
would have gone as far as 3,150 - 3,950 km from the pad or within the impact
zone specified. This indicates that the separation of the third stage and
its firing did not work properly. So the same earlier 1,270 - 1,300 km from
Japan suggested impact point is incomplete data from a Japanese Self Defense
Forces ship based source some 1,030 kilometers from Japan. Japans radar
tracked the flight 18 minutes with 7 minutes to first stage impact in the
Sea of Japan after its 120 - 125 - 130 second burn but its radar systems
range limit was 2,100 kilometers. 

The digital globe image that caught the TD-2 in flight at about 35,000 feet
with jet streaming is quite normal. The bright flare is light reflection
back into the satellite camera called sentilization glare and its mirror
multiple imaging such a see one light through a window reflected in a line
of repeated images. However that picture blown up properly allows one to see
the top of the first stage, second stage, third stage and payload shroud
exactly as viewed in the DPRK released video of its April 5, 2009 launch.

Additional data gleamed from the Digital Globe imagery of March 26th does
indeed reveal the top of the second stage and the image of the 27th revealed
the top of the payload shroud below the top of the gantry umbilical tower
last service level surrounding it. The Digital Globe image of March 29th of
the whole vehicle on the pad revealed the third stage was at that time
exposed with a tapered truncated cone adapter at its base and above it
leading to the bulbous like payload shroud. Subsequent imagery review of the
released video of the launch of the Taep'o-dong-2 by the DPRK revealed that
a shroud was placed around the third stage to make the airframe smooth
causing the bulbous shroud to appear as if it had disappeared. The third
stage actually turned out to be longer than expected.

Additionally at launch the base of the second and third stage tapered
sections at just before and after liftoff revealed the presence of active
stage thruster system for yaw, pit, roll, and translation control never seen
before. Overall the booster has undergone dramatic design revision from its
original concept mock-up first seen in 1994 by US imagery and subsequent
derived designs of 1997-98 reflecting an Iranian collaborative design
effort. The first and second stage inter-stage area has been totally
redesigned. The First stage exhibited four main thrust chambers but the
steering system is not clearly defined as (vanes in the gas jet which
circumstantially appears to be the case) or vernier or thruster steering.
The gas jets fire from the four main thrust chambers has a yellow orange
color and a hydro-carbon black gray smoke like trail indicating a
hydro-carbon based fuel of gasoline and kerosene like that of the Scud and
No-dong-A series. That is combined with a red fuming nitric oxide oxidizer
of red fuming nitric acid and nitrogen tetroxide with inhibitors to cut the
corrosiveness of this highly toxic corrosive hypergolic propellant
combination. There was no clear evidence of a soft gas after the pump
turbine actuation exhaust being dumped overboard indication the very modern
use of a closed cycle propulsion system such as that of the No-dong-B IRBM
launch vehicle that North Korea and Iran are documented to have flight
tested and deployed. It could be that the No-dong-B propulsion system was
redesigned to accommodate these propellant combinations and not UDMH,
Nitrogen tetroxide but that remains uncertain. Choosing UDMH and nitrogen
tetroxide over the nitric oxide and hydro-carbon combination would provide a
better over all performance for the system. The guidance system performed
from liftoff much better than that seen with the 1998 Taep'o-dong first
satellite launch attempt. Taep'o-dong-1 flew near vertically before angling
over and moving down rang but this Taep'o-dong-2 almost immediately curved
over heading down range as a satellite launch should carry out in a very
smooth flight pattern. It was even possible to see it correct its direction
of flight as it moved down range soon after launch.

Going Fishing After TD-2 First Stage 

I assume that the three cooperating nations Japan, South Korea and the
United States ship based and ground based radars and SIGINT data operations
has located the boosters first stage impact point in the Sea of Japan some
280 kilometers from Japan and that it has been images by submarine
controlled unmanned submersible robot and probably recovered parts of if not
the entire stage clandestinely. The impact area apparently has a sea floor
depth of 1,000 - 3,000 meters at most. The Japanese Self Defense Forces
ministry has said they did not locate the impact point and that the sea
search area, associated work and cost would make it prohibitive to be
recovered according to the Japanese, Kyodo News on April 7th and 20th, 2009.

Like a "James Bond" thriller this is probably a press wave off of the real
game being conducted by the United States though we will never see or hear
about it our life time. That has been my thought for some time while they do
the job unseen and unheard perhaps using the SSN-23 Jimmy Carter? The Usha-2
first stage would have reentered engines boat tail first because of mass
distribution but the reentry damage to the engine end may be relatively
minor based on experience but it still would be worth it to get some answers
to its redesign and electronics if lucky enough to retrieve but images would
be best. I just can't believe radar and sonar can not nail the area down.
Then do it along with a cable linked unmanned submersible robot in total
silence. Yes, there could be WW-II wrecks there but some of that must be
charted already. To recover the first stage debris North Korea has said
would be a provocation among many in response to the suggestion from the
Japanese press. 

To recover the reentry elements broken up debris from the second and third
stage of the booster is less probable but not impossible in the 3,230
kilometers down range from the pad impact point. However the depth of the
Pacific Ocean floor there is some 6,000 meters making it a prohibitive
operation but not impossible. The broken up parts of the second and third
stages would probably be in a widespread debris field on the ocean floor.
The second stage is believed to be an altitude version of the No-dong-A that
is technically well understood with a separate thruster and booster guidance
packages. The third stage is presumed to be a solid motor and liquid
thruster package that could very well have detonated at an altitude of about
100,000 feet along with the re-entering disintegrating experimental
communications satellite. Tim Brown has reviewed this possibility in the
Globalsecurity.org, SitRep front page site. 

-----Original Message-----
From: fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org
[mailto:fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org] On Behalf Of Morris Jones
Sent: Wednesday, April 29, 2009 5:24 AM
To: fpspace at friends-partners.org
Subject: [FPSPACE] More NK launches soon?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8024235.stm

Story claims that Lil' Kim will fire off more intercontinental ballistic
missile tests and conduct a nuclear test if the UN doesn't apologize for
condemning NK's earlier launch.

I will simply present this as a blank quote without further elaboration.

It's been a strange week.

Morris Jones
Sydney, Australia

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