[FPSPACE] Fear and loathing on the lauch pad

[E.P. Grondine]

Hi Morris, all - 

Great questions. The answers will depend on the 
60 day studies. While these are being done I expect
that Obama may issue orders for NASA to continue 
keeping the shuttle viable, in line with the earlier
Congressional policy. 

>From what I have read, my thinking is that 
Gration backed Direct; Sen. Nelson blocked his
nomination; Nelson's favorite Bolden actually worked 
as a lobbyist for Thiokol, who are pushing for 
Ares 1.

Worden and Nelson favor extension of shuttle use;
I expect an Orion variant to be built for use
with the EELVs for ISS utilization. Hopefully the
Shuttle will be cut over to Direct, preserving
jobs and tech. I don't want to see us get stuck 
with the Stick.

As far as long term ISS operations go, we've seen
balloons run up about China coming in around 2017. 
As far as ISS long term utilization goes, I set out 
some guesses on long term ISS uses in response to 
Griffin's manned Mars fantasies.

Long term, there is a paradigm shift which will 
occur. In the last century Mars was thought to 
an Earth like planet and that was the real driver
for manned space. We now know that Mars is not like
the Earth, despite the biases within the space 
media, their readers, and their reporters who make 
money entertaining those readers' fantasies. 
My thinking is that at current launch costs 
manned Mars flight would be impossible to sell to
the public at large now. Lest this start another 
round, I also think that will change in the next 
10 to 15 years.

Also, in the last century, it was thought that asteroids
and COMETS rarely impacted the Earth; we now know
that COMETARY impact in particular can have devastating
consequences. For one example, 90 to 95% of the people
living in North America died due to COMETARY impact at 10,900 BCE.
Also, we know it COMETS have been the cause of the 
ELEs, even though this is not widely known yet.

There have been millions of more deaths and several 
nations destroyed by impact in the recent past, though 
again this is not well known yet.

The best way of handling the hazard of
comet and comet fragment impacts is with CAPS, 
the Comet and Asteroid Protection System, using
Moon based detection instruments.China appears to
have CAPS under consideration for the 2020-2025 
time frame. 

Bush's 2004 statement may be seen as a reaction to 
China's long term plans, though it appears that 
neither Bush nor Griffin fully understood China's
reasons for making that decision. They have to do
with fatal and devastating impacts in China's history.

The ESAS architecture will also be reviewed in 
the next 60 days. It may be cut over from what
Griffin wanted, a test flight for manned Mars flight,
to something capable of building CAPS. In any case,
whatever the confusion in the US, ESA, or Russia,
I don't think China will change course, but rather
remain committed to its long term plans and strategies
for executing them.

IN any case, I expect Obama's main space science
focus will be on the Earth, and I expect that 
Obama's main science focus overall will be on energy 
generation and transmission systems, and freeing the
US from dependence on foreign oil.

Republican Lamont Alexander's statement last 
Saturday was very positive news in this regard 
as well.

Now perhaps this is all delusional thinking on my 
part, or perhaps you're asking questions
which those parts of my brain not hit by my stroke 
can handle. 

Now if I could just remember where I set my hat, 
things would be much better. 

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas and 
A History of Cosmonautics

PS - Note carefully the difference between Obama and 
Bush actions regarding Pakistan and the Taliban. 

It's called leadership.








 





It seems beyond doubt that the Shuttle will be mothballed in 2010, and Orion will not be ready for crews (reduced!) until 2016. 

Will NASA sit happily as a passenger on Soyuz in the meantime? Will Dragon be pressed into service for crews at some point in the gap? Is anything else possible? 

Most importantly, will NASA abandon ISS in 2015, thus reducing the need to rush Orion into flight?

Morris Jones
Sydney, Australia




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