[FPSPACE] Fear and loathing on the launchpad

[Geert Sassen]

I think the big underlying question is whether piloted spaceflight really
has a valuable function today. Technology is going very fast, there are a
lot of unmanned project proposals which could potentially give a lot of
science (and PR) returns, MSR is one of them, and at a fraction of the cost
of piloted space missions. If a piloted moon mission is already too
expensive, a piloted mars mission is out of the question and that leaves us
which rather meager remaining options for piloted missions. If the choice
should be between MSR or 'another mission to ISS', which would it be?

If we tread ISS as a 'laboratory outpost', something similar to the polar
stations, then ferrying crews and provisions etc to/from ISS might be seen
as just a commercial opportunity and not necessarily a task for NASA. I
think 'building ISS' is a great technological task and definitely in the
field of NASA, but 'servicing ISS', once it is fully functional, is not
necessarily the future for NASA and I don't think that's the road ahead. In
the end ISS will need to 'prove its worth', meaning it will need to justify
its function as a space outpost with regards to science results, etc,
otherwise it is just wasting money which could be spend better on unmanned
missions. And if ISS is deemed valuable enough to continue, then ferrying
crews and provisions to/from the station should just be open to the
commercial market, I think it is a bad thing to tie NASA to the ISS as the
only rationale for piloted spaceflight.

If we disregard 'national PR' missions (the 'moonrace', which can only
result in terrible expensive short term projects without any long term
prospects) then in the end I think 'colonisation' is the only purpose which
really requires piloted spaceflight. It would require a very, very, bold
move to make 'colonisation' the mission objective, but if this isn't done
piloted spaceflight will remain without a true rational and, in the end, a
waste of money and resources. If you talk about science almost anything can
be done easier and cheaper with unmanned probes and nothing is so terrible
important that it justifies a piloted mission.

In my opinion the Ares 1 thing is a disaster waiting to happen, Altair and
Ares V  are a dream which will never be build, and Orion is way too heavy
and complicated if it is only used as a ferry to ISS. On the other hand,
Falcon 9 and Dragon is just as much unproven technology and it would be a
big gamble whether they can complete that in time and fly safely on a large
enough scale, it might be the correct way forward but they still have a long
way to go and there might be many obstacles on the road.

As to what will happen in my opinion: Ares 1 and Orion will be build, too
much is invested in them already, but as ISS will be the only place to go to
for them it is only a matter of time before cost comparissons are drawn
between the various craft then servicing ISS and that will probably seal the
fate of Orion quite soon, and then, once again, the question regarding the
true purpose of piloted spaceflight will be raised. Whoever is going to lead
NASA has some tough decisions ahead.
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