[FPSPACE] Third time lucky?

[Kosmos327 at aol.com]

I think you hit the nail right on the head, Jim. 
 
In my mind I tried to associate Kim Jung-il with Khrunichev (make the  
military force appear bigger and badder than it really was), but that didn't  work 
very well. Khrunichev had his reasons ... Kim Jung-il  is just  nutts.
 
The best analogy I can come up with is visualizing Kim Jung-il  as a  man 
showing off his bravery, power, and talent by juggling 20 live Grenades  at the 
same time. He does it well and thoroughly enjoys it, but someday he might  
accidentally pull the pin on one of them. Then all hell might break  loose.
 
Regards,
 
David L. Rickman
 
 
 
In a message dated 4/5/2009 4:00:01 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
jameseoberg at comcast.net writes:

Don't  judge NorKorean thinking by external
standards. As far as their population  is concerned,
both launches succeeded.

Since they signed the UN  Convention on Registration
of Outer Space Objects recently, expect them to  file a report
on this faux-satellite shortly. Lying to the UN is a  totally
non-dangerous activity, particularly this Convention (both
the  USSR and the USA have already done it with immunity).

Let's entertain  the notion that neither launch -- 1998 or 2009 --
carried a real third  stage and satellite. It was all camouflage,
say. There was a value to  instilling confusion in the outside world.

The missile tests went  ahead, successfully. Overflight of Japan
was tolerated under the ambiguity  of 'space exploration', as
was the intent.

Military missile test  objectives were fully satisfied by a trajectory
that emulated a typical  earth satellite ascent, at no real cost for
the pretense, with the payoff  that it contributed to outsider confusion...

...Interpreting these  events using tools that worked on Soviet and Chinese
mystery missions has  led to frustration and bafflement. It's possible that
this bafflement is  intentionally engineered by clever rocket strategists
who fully understand  the analysis techniques to be applied to their
own project -- and moved to  subvert them through subterfuge.

Sound crazy? I suggest that our  'classical' approach to this subject
matter has been too unimaginative, too  by-the-cookbook, and not
nearly 'crazt enough'! It certainly hasn't shown  any success at
providing usable insights or predictive value, so far as I  can see.


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Zeger"  <dokter.nuyens at pandora.be>
To:  <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2009 12:33  PM
Subject: [FPSPACE] Third time lucky?


> It must be  particularly aggravating for NK and its Great Leader (and a
> very  anxious moment for NK rocket people) to know Iran succeeded right
> away  with their technology. Luck is unpredictable and Kim Jung-il can't
>  change that.
>
> Zeger Nuyens
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