[FPSPACE] Third time lucky?

[James Oberg]

Don't judge NorKorean thinking by external
standards. As far as their population is concerned,
both launches succeeded.

Since they signed the UN Convention on Registration
of Outer Space Objects recently, expect them to file a report
on this faux-satellite shortly. Lying to the UN is a totally
non-dangerous activity, particularly this Convention (both
the USSR and the USA have already done it with immunity).

Let's entertain the notion that neither launch -- 1998 or 2009 --
carried a real third stage and satellite. It was all camouflage,
say. There was a value to instilling confusion in the outside world.

The missile tests went ahead, successfully. Overflight of Japan
was tolerated under the ambiguity of 'space exploration', as
was the intent.

Military missile test objectives were fully satisfied by a trajectory
that emulated a typical earth satellite ascent, at no real cost for
the pretense, with the payoff that it contributed to outsider confusion.

What evidence is there that either 1998 or 2009 ever contained a live
third stage, as opposed to a mockup warhead? Were there any
NorKorean ships in a warhead recovery zone east of Hawaii?
Has anyone asked?

Speaking of ships, what about recovery of all or parts of the first stage in
the Sea of Japan? Are there NorKorean ships there, or does Japan have
clear sailing for its search?

Interpreting these events using tools that worked on Soviet and Chinese
mystery missions has led to frustration and bafflement. It's possible that
this bafflement is intentionally engineered by clever rocket strategists
who fully understand the analysis techniques to be applied to their
own project -- and moved to subvert them through subterfuge.

Sound crazy? I suggest that our 'classical' approach to this subject
matter has been too unimaginative, too by-the-cookbook, and not
nearly 'crazt enough'! It certainly hasn't shown any success at
providing usable insights or predictive value, so far as I can see.


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Zeger" <dokter.nuyens at pandora.be>
To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2009 12:33 PM
Subject: [FPSPACE] Third time lucky?


> It must be particularly aggravating for NK and its Great Leader (and a
> very anxious moment for NK rocket people) to know Iran succeeded right
> away with their technology. Luck is unpredictable and Kim Jung-il can't
> change that.
>
> Zeger Nuyens
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