[FPSPACE] South African - Russian claims confirmed!

[Baris Gencay]

Dear Keith,

Thank you very much for the post but could you provide the link of that 
news. Actually I am lost in the online pages of M&G.


Thanks,

Baris






----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Keith Gottschalk" <kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za>
To: "Friends & Partners FPSPACE" <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Friday, September 12, 2008 3:19 PM
Subject: [FPSPACE] South African - Russian claims confirmed!


>     Some months ago one or two FPSPACE members kindly posted links here
> to a reputable South African trade magazine called Martin Creamer's
> Engineering News. One of its respected journalists ran reports that the
> reason that the Russian military had delayed from 16 December 2006 to
> date to launch a South African microsat called Sumbandila (the name
> proposed by a schoolgirl in a competition means "Lead the Way" in Venda
> language) because the South African Government refused to use a Russian
> spy satellite.
>
>   Today's Mail & Guardian (a weekly newspaper published in
> Johannesburg) confirms this. Its whole page 2 (12-18 September edition)
> is devoted to a report titled "SA, Russia in R1bn cold war". [ZAR one
> billion = c. $125m]. Since I'm sure that all US members of FPSPACE have
> vastly more bandwidth than me, I'll mention that the Mail & Guardian is
> available on-line.
>
>   For the rest of us, as briefly as possible, the report reveals the
> following:
>
> 1. South African Defence Intelligence chief Moreti "Mojo" Motau flew to
> Russia sometime during 2003 - 2005 and ordered an NPO Mashinostroyenia
> reconnaissance satellite with optical and IR image capabilities. Its
> costs would have been vastly higher than the entire South African
> defence intelligence budget, which is around R140m per year [roughly
> $17m].
>
> 2. In late 2006 - early 2007 Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota canceled
> the order for a spysat.
>
> 3. "a source in contact with the role players involved in the dispute
> over the military spy satellite said the Russians are heading for the
> Hague, where the International Permanent Court of Arbitration sits.
> South Africa's liability, if the case goes ahead, may equal the contract
> price - more than R1 billion" [=$125m.]
>
>     During the early FPSPACE discussion I was sceptical about these
> reports. Naturally I only have access to open source information, and as
> a political scientist I have found a sceptical approach to conspiracy
> theories & unsubstantiated claims works more frequently than any other
> approach. The downside is that from time to time I will appear as naive.
>
>
>    There has been much political controversy in South Africa about
> incompetent civil servants bumbling & making mistakes with costly
> contracts. Certainly the Defence Minister's decision appears more
> rational than his Intelligence chief. South Africa's only military
> forces far away from home are in various African Union & UN peacekeeping
> missions in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sudan. Attacks on
> them are hit-and-run insurgents on foot, not huge tank formations. So
> their need is not for a "photint" satellite orbiting over the same
> terrain on average once per twenty days, but UAVs buzzing around daily
> at a low enough orbit to film foot soldiers in ragged file walking
> around.
>
>   Similarly their only communication needs can be met by satellite
> phone or even shortwave radio. It does not matter if the US NSA's famous
> deciphering facilities follow the perfectly legitimate ops of UN & AU
> peacekeepers asking for ammo, anti-malaria medicines, tins of condensed
> milk, condoms, diesel and generators, and reporting cease-fire
> violations by extremists.
>
>  When our microsat will be launched? The same reports claim that the
> Russians will in fact do that soon. Time will tell.
> warm regards to all, Keith.
>


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