[FPSPACE] South African - Russian claims confirmed!

[Keith Gottschalk]

     Some months ago one or two FPSPACE members kindly posted links here
to a reputable South African trade magazine called Martin Creamer's
Engineering News. One of its respected journalists ran reports that the
reason that the Russian military had delayed from 16 December 2006 to
date to launch a South African microsat called Sumbandila (the name
proposed by a schoolgirl in a competition means "Lead the Way" in Venda
language) because the South African Government refused to use a Russian
spy satellite.

   Today's Mail & Guardian (a weekly newspaper published in
Johannesburg) confirms this. Its whole page 2 (12-18 September edition)
is devoted to a report titled "SA, Russia in R1bn cold war". [ZAR one
billion = c. $125m]. Since I'm sure that all US members of FPSPACE have
vastly more bandwidth than me, I'll mention that the Mail & Guardian is
available on-line.

   For the rest of us, as briefly as possible, the report reveals the
following:

1. South African Defence Intelligence chief Moreti "Mojo" Motau flew to
Russia sometime during 2003 - 2005 and ordered an NPO Mashinostroyenia
reconnaissance satellite with optical and IR image capabilities. Its
costs would have been vastly higher than the entire South African
defence intelligence budget, which is around R140m per year [roughly
$17m]. 

2. In late 2006 - early 2007 Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota canceled
the order for a spysat.

3. "a source in contact with the role players involved in the dispute
over the military spy satellite said the Russians are heading for the
Hague, where the International Permanent Court of Arbitration sits.
South Africa's liability, if the case goes ahead, may equal the contract
price - more than R1 billion" [=$125m.]

     During the early FPSPACE discussion I was sceptical about these
reports. Naturally I only have access to open source information, and as
a political scientist I have found a sceptical approach to conspiracy
theories & unsubstantiated claims works more frequently than any other
approach. The downside is that from time to time I will appear as naive.


    There has been much political controversy in South Africa about
incompetent civil servants bumbling & making mistakes with costly
contracts. Certainly the Defence Minister's decision appears more
rational than his Intelligence chief. South Africa's only military
forces far away from home are in various African Union & UN peacekeeping
missions in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sudan. Attacks on
them are hit-and-run insurgents on foot, not huge tank formations. So
their need is not for a "photint" satellite orbiting over the same
terrain on average once per twenty days, but UAVs buzzing around daily
at a low enough orbit to film foot soldiers in ragged file walking
around.

   Similarly their only communication needs can be met by satellite
phone or even shortwave radio. It does not matter if the US NSA's famous
deciphering facilities follow the perfectly legitimate ops of UN & AU
peacekeepers asking for ammo, anti-malaria medicines, tins of condensed
milk, condoms, diesel and generators, and reporting cease-fire
violations by extremists.

  When our microsat will be launched? The same reports claim that the
Russians will in fact do that soon. Time will tell.
warm regards to all, Keith.
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