[FPSPACE] Final Nail In the Coffin for USA's Manned Space Aspirations?

[Peter Pesavento]

Ladies and Gentlemen, you all should read this.

 

Exclusive from the Orlando Sentinel.

 

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/space/orl-ares2608oct26,0,561055.story

 

Sentinel exclusive: Is NASA's Ares doomed?

Robert Block | Sentinel Space Editor 

October 26, 2008 

CAPE CANAVERAL - Bit by bit, the new rocket ship that is supposed to blast
America into the second Space Age and return astronauts to the moon appears
to be coming undone.

First was the discovery that it lacked sufficient power to lift astronauts
in a state-of-the-art capsule into orbit. Then engineers found out that it
might vibrate like a giant tuning fork, shaking its crew to death.

Now, in the latest setback to the Ares I, computer models show the ship
could crash into its launch tower during liftoff.

The issue is known as "liftoff drift." Ignition of the rocket's solid-fuel
motor makes it "jump" sideways on the pad, and a southeast breeze stronger
than 12.7 mph would be enough to push the 309-foot-tall ship into its launch
tower.

 

Worst case, the impact would destroy the rocket. But even if that doesn't
happen, flames from the rocket would scorch the tower, leading to huge
repair costs.

"We were told by a person directly involved [in looking at the problem] that
as they incorporate more variables into the liftoff-drift-curve model, the
worse the curve becomes," said one
<http://www.orlandosentinel.com/topic/science-technology/space-programs/nasa
-ORGOV000098.topic> NASA contractor, who asked not to be named because he
wasn't authorized to discuss Ares.

"I get the impression that things are quickly going from bad to worse to
unrecoverable."

NASA says it can solve -- or limit -- the problem by repositioning and
redesigning the launchpad.

Engineers say that would take as much as a year and cost tens of millions of
unbudgeted dollars.

What happens with Ares I is crucial to the future of the U.S. manned space
program -- and of
<http://www.orlandosentinel.com/topic/science-technology/space-programs/kenn
edy-space-center-PLCUL000170.topic> Kennedy Space Center. KSC is looking at
thousands of layoffs after the space shuttle is retired in 2010. Its work
force won't grow again until a new rocket launches.

In addition, huge expenditures on the rocket could bankrupt the agency's
moon plans and prompt a new president to halt the program, delaying
America's return to space.

Work in progress

NASA officials are now looking at ways to speed up the development of Ares
and are reluctant to discuss specific problems. But they insist none is
insurmountable.

"There are always issues that crop up when you are developing a new rocket
and many opinions about how to deal with them," said Jeff Hanley, manager of
the Constellation program, which includes Ares, the first new U.S. rocket in
35 years.

"We have a lot of data and understanding of what it's going to take to build
this."

Still, Ares' woes have created unprecedented rifts inside the agency.

Now several engineers are speaking out, saying Ares should be canceled
because it's expensive and potentially dangerous.

"It's time for a rethink," said Jeff Finckenor, an award-winning NASA
engineer who last month quit the Ares program in frustration over the way
the program is being managed.

Internal documents and studies obtained by the Orlando Sentinel appear to
support concerns expressed by Finckenor and others. Nonetheless, NASA's
leaders maintain that Ares will be ready for launch in 2015.

"At the highest levels of the agency, there seems to be a belief that you
can mandate reality, followed by a refusal to accept any information that
runs counter to that mandate," said Finckenor, whose farewell letter to his
colleagues denouncing NASA management was posted (without his permission) on
NASAWatch.com, an independent Web site.

 

The Sentinel reviewed more than 800 pages of NASA documents and internal
studies and interviewed more than a dozen engineers, technicians and NASA
officials involved with the project. Most, fearing retribution from NASA
management, spoke on condition that their names would not be used.

All agreed that, eventually, NASA would be able to get Ares I to fly. The
real question, they said, is whether the agency will be able to build it on
time and on budget. What's more, they said, it will never be the robust,
simple rocket that NASA intended.

"If they push hard enough, yes, it will fly," said one NASA engineer working
on Ares. "But there are going to be so many compromises to be able to launch
it, and it will be so expensive and so behind schedule, that it may be
better if didn't fly at all."

Project earned C grade

 

NASA had to quell near-revolts by astronauts and scientists who last month
took issue during a preliminary design review of Ares I. In the end, they
were cajoled into backing the review.

The review graded the rocket against 10 criteria from NASA's
program-management handbook. Seven of the marks were the equivalent of a C
or a D. Overall, the project earned a grade-point average of 2.1, a low C.

The reasons for the low grades included concerns that its electronics and
control systems could be shaken apart on liftoff and the launch-drift issue.

Astronauts, whose prime concern is safety, are still not happy.

Leroy Chiao, a former space-station commander who retired in 2005, stays in
touch with his colleagues.

"I would say that I have heard various concerns," he said. "If I were still
in the corps, I'd be skeptical about when is this thing going to fly and
will we be able to put all the fixes in place."

One reason the astronauts are angry, Chiao and others say, is because NASA
earlier this year relaxed its own safety requirements when it realized that
Ares I could not meet rigid rules demanding triple redundancy on all
critical systems.

The extra systems added too much weight. So, engineers said, NASA rewrote
the rules to allow managers to decide how many backup systems each component
needed. At one point, according to Finckenor, NASA considered throwing out
all redundant systems in the launch-abort system, the emergency escape for
the astronauts in case something goes wrong on liftoff.

Griffin's baby

Ares is in many ways the brainchild of NASA Administrator Michael Griffin.

In 2004,
<http://www.orlandosentinel.com/topic/politics/government/presidents-of-the-
united-states/george-bush-PEPLT000857.topic> President Bush called on NASA
to retire the shuttle and design a new rocket system capable of returning
humans to the moon by 2020 and Mars by 2030.

At the time, Griffin was the highly respected head of the Space Department
at
<http://www.orlandosentinel.com/topic/education/colleges-universities/johns-
hopkins-university-OREDU0000116.topic> Johns Hopkins University's Applied
Physics Laboratory and had written a scholarly paper proposing a rocket
design similar to the Ares I. It was revolutionary, with a first stage
created by stacking the shuttle's solid rocket boosters, a liquid-fueled
second stage and a manned capsule on top.

In April 2005, Griffin was appointed NASA administrator with a mandate to
get the moon program moving. Within months, he organized a study that passed
over other proven rockets and chose the Ares I as safe, simple and
relatively inexpensive because it used lots of parts from the shuttle.

Experts say its problems stem from changes to the original design. These
modifications, such as changing the engines and making the solid rocket
boosters longer, created unexpected problems, including excessive shaking
and the launch drift.

In a recent interview, Griffin defended NASA's process.

"We have been doing design work and development the way it has always been
done. I mean, this is among the very hardest things that human beings do,"
he said.

"There has never been an aerospace system developed without problems, and
there likely never will be. In the end NASA has always fixed them, and we
will fix them this time."

Mark K. Matthews of the Washington Bureau contributed to this report. Robert
Block can be reached at  <mailto:rblock at orlandosentinel.com>
rblock at orlandosentinel.com or 321-639-0522.

 

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