[FPSPACE] manned Mars flight

[E.P. Grondine]

David Rickman wrote

>At this point I foresee a multitude of nations sending Man to Mars within  my 
>life time. There will be a number of flags placed there. However, the first  
>one won't be the Red, White, and Blue ... it will be White, Blue and Red.

I used to think (say 30 years) ago, that the US 
could go it alone to Mars. (Particularly after 
I saw one of Zubrin's first presentations.

I don't anymore. Launch costs for even limited manned 
Mars flight are simply too damn high, and launch systems
too unreliable to launch large nuclear power supplies.

But this ignores the important question, "What for?"
We know that Mars is not Earth-like, and can not be 
made Earth-like. While the scientific results can 
justify multiple advanced rovers, there are several
orders of magnitude of difference in the cost of 
unmanned and manned flights to Mars.

I used to view manned Mars enthusiasts as simply 
engaging in utopianism, as occurred when airplanes 
were developing (see "The Winged Gospel"). I now 
realize that what I was dealing with was a cult, 
with a "sacred science" all of its own. The Cult of 
Mars. Cult behaviours are the only thing that can 
explain repeated funding of "science" that violates 
known principles of physics, from the phase states of 
water to radiation.

With Mars out of reach for a while at least, 
What I think will happen instead is that China will 
build the most capable impactor detection system 
possible on the Moon (CAPS), perhaps working along 
with other nations. I have good reasons for 
thinking this, foremost of which is that mankind is 
at a stage where development of the Moon is feasable, 
and more importantly, whoever provides the best 
cometary and asteroid detection system will achieve
world leadership in space. Third, CAPS technologies 
have other uses. 










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