[FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar surface, NASA official says

[Charles Vick]

No we have not heard much on the lunar orbiter and the fact that they are
talking a second one tends to say something but what is unclear or uncertain
I tend to think they are learning and still working it but I am left
wondering in the absence of information. 

Yes it does sound like the 1960's build up of the lunar race desire to
create budgetary pressure for NASA but it has not worked with the white
house and house of representatives with rejection 

If it ant in the five year plans its talk/hearsay but definitely not on the
schedule suggested. The five year plans and what they say about them is what
counts including the 10 year forecast plan and the 15 outlook plan which are
the next two five year plans fiscal plans to follow.
cpv

-----Original Message-----
From: fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org
[mailto:fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org] On Behalf Of LARRY KLAES
Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 10:52 PM
To: fpspace at friends-partners.org
Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar
surface, NASA official says

So what has been happening with China's first lunar orbiter?

Haven't heard much since it first started circling the Moon.

I could be wrong, but I think they are going to need more
than a decade or so to get to the point of a manned lunar
mission.  I am not saying it is impossible for China, just that
it might take longer than being claimed.

I "love" how the article makes 1969 sound so long ago.
39 years isn't that bad, especially on a geological scale.

Larry


>From: "Charles Vick" <cpvick at globalsecurity.org>
>To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
>Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar 
>surface, NASA official says
>Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2008 18:25:50 -0400
>
>Unfortunately regardless of what NASA's game is I have a problem with this
>prognoses regardless of what CIA and DoD intelligence briefings are
>presenting to the NASA administrators. This is not a realistic analysis
>based on the present State planning of China five year plan,  ten year
>forecast plan and fifteen year outlook plan much less its twenty year 
>future
>plan that are merely discussed prior to the fifteen year outlook plan etc
>
>It is unrealistic until the next five year plan and its related 10 year
>outlook plans and 15 year forecast plans as they exist now. At present the
>plans for manned lunar landing are future plan is forecasted for the
>2021-2025 five year plan. Circumnavigation is however quite a different
>story as is also space station development.
>
>
>
>SEE: http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/budget.htm
>
>China 's Space Industry Forecasting
>
>  <http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/sanya.htm>
>http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/sanya.htm
>
>The Fourth Launch Infrastructure for the Long March-2E, Long March- 
>3/3A/3B,
>and Long March-5 Launch Site Finally Identified , Hainan Island ,Wench'eng
>LM-5 Launch Infrastructure Preparation?
>
>http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/report/2006/060421-prc-cpvick.h
t
>m
>
>China and Russia Challenging the Space Leadership of the United States
>
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org
>[mailto:fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org] On Behalf Of Peter Pesavento
>Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 5:43 PM
>To: fpspace at friends-partners.org
>Subject: [FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar
>surface,NASA official says
>
>
>
>http://www.mcclatchydc.com/science/story/39784.html
>
>
>
>NASA's associate administrator says so.
>
>
>
>Posted on Wed, Jun. 04, 2008
>
>
>China likely to beat U.S. back to the moon, NASA says
>
>
>Robert S. Boyd | McClatchy Newspapers
>
>
>last updated: June 04, 2008 07:49:10 PM
>
>WASHINGTON - Here's one Olympic-style event that China is likely to win:
>landing the next humans on the moon.
>
>Chinese astronauts are on schedule to beat the United States back to the
>moon by two or three years, the head of NASA's lunar exploration program
>said Wednesday.
>
>``If they keep on the path they're on, they can" land before Americans do,
>said Rick Gilbreth, NASA's associate administrator for exploration systems.
>
>The goal of NASA's Constellation program is to return astronauts to the 
>moon
>by 2020, as proposed in President Bush's Vision for Space Exploration.
>Gilbreth said the Chinese could accomplish that by 2017 or 2018.
>
>The Chinese lead will be even longer if the American schedule slips, as 
>some
>space experts predict.
>
>Beating the U.S. back to the moon would be a feather in a resurgent China's
>cap with psychological as well as military implications. Last year, China
>became the first nation in the world to shoot down a space satellite,
>setting off alarm bells in the Pentagon. Some defense analysts foresee a
>long-range competition between the U.S. and China for future military
>control of space.
>
>America is still far ahead of China in space. The Chinese are aiming to
>duplicate a feat that this country accomplished almost 40 years ago. The
>first two Apollo astronauts landed on the moon in 1969, when Richard Nixon
>was in the White House.
>
>In addition, NASA's back-to-the-moon program is substantially bolder than
>China's.
>
>``They're taking an Apollo-like approach,'' Gilbreth said. ``Our program is
>much more ambitious than Apollo. We're going to put four people on the moon
>for seven days, eventually for six months. China is looking for a minimum
>capability. We're looking to put an outpost on the moon.''
>
>He called China's space program ``very impressive,'' but said, ``We're not
>in a race. We're going for the long haul.''
>
>China's interest in space dates to the 1950s. It sent up its first 
>satellite
>in 1970, lofted its first astronaut into space in 2003 and launched a
>mission to orbit the moon in 2007.
>
>Russia has landed robots on the moon but not humans.
>
>NASA's new Lunar Reconnaissance Orbit is scheduled to launch this November.
>The first unmanned test flight of Orion, the next lunar lander, won't come
>until 2015.
>
>As for the 2020 target for U.S. astronauts to land on the moon, a
>blue-ribbon panel of space experts recently expressed doubt that the
>timetable will be met.
>
>``Human missions to the moon by the year 2020 ... are exceedingly
>unlikely,'' Kathryn Thornton, a member of the panel and a University of
>Virginia engineering professor, told the House Science Committee on April 
>3.
>
>
>


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