[FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar surface, NASA official says

[LARRY KLAES]

So what has been happening with China's first lunar orbiter?

Haven't heard much since it first started circling the Moon.

I could be wrong, but I think they are going to need more
than a decade or so to get to the point of a manned lunar
mission.  I am not saying it is impossible for China, just that
it might take longer than being claimed.

I "love" how the article makes 1969 sound so long ago.
39 years isn't that bad, especially on a geological scale.

Larry


>From: "Charles Vick" <cpvick at globalsecurity.org>
>To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
>Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar 
>surface, NASA official says
>Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2008 18:25:50 -0400
>
>Unfortunately regardless of what NASA's game is I have a problem with this
>prognoses regardless of what CIA and DoD intelligence briefings are
>presenting to the NASA administrators. This is not a realistic analysis
>based on the present State planning of China five year plan,  ten year
>forecast plan and fifteen year outlook plan much less its twenty year 
>future
>plan that are merely discussed prior to the fifteen year outlook plan etc
>
>It is unrealistic until the next five year plan and its related 10 year
>outlook plans and 15 year forecast plans as they exist now. At present the
>plans for manned lunar landing are future plan is forecasted for the
>2021-2025 five year plan. Circumnavigation is however quite a different
>story as is also space station development.
>
>
>
>SEE: http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/budget.htm
>
>China 's Space Industry Forecasting
>
>  <http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/sanya.htm>
>http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/sanya.htm
>
>The Fourth Launch Infrastructure for the Long March-2E, Long March- 
>3/3A/3B,
>and Long March-5 Launch Site Finally Identified , Hainan Island ,Wench'eng
>LM-5 Launch Infrastructure Preparation?
>
>http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/report/2006/060421-prc-cpvick.ht
>m
>
>China and Russia Challenging the Space Leadership of the United States
>
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org
>[mailto:fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org] On Behalf Of Peter Pesavento
>Sent: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 5:43 PM
>To: fpspace at friends-partners.org
>Subject: [FPSPACE] PRC to beat USA in return of humans to the lunar
>surface,NASA official says
>
>
>
>http://www.mcclatchydc.com/science/story/39784.html
>
>
>
>NASA's associate administrator says so.
>
>
>
>Posted on Wed, Jun. 04, 2008
>
>
>China likely to beat U.S. back to the moon, NASA says
>
>
>Robert S. Boyd | McClatchy Newspapers
>
>
>last updated: June 04, 2008 07:49:10 PM
>
>WASHINGTON - Here's one Olympic-style event that China is likely to win:
>landing the next humans on the moon.
>
>Chinese astronauts are on schedule to beat the United States back to the
>moon by two or three years, the head of NASA's lunar exploration program
>said Wednesday.
>
>``If they keep on the path they're on, they can" land before Americans do,
>said Rick Gilbreth, NASA's associate administrator for exploration systems.
>
>The goal of NASA's Constellation program is to return astronauts to the 
>moon
>by 2020, as proposed in President Bush's Vision for Space Exploration.
>Gilbreth said the Chinese could accomplish that by 2017 or 2018.
>
>The Chinese lead will be even longer if the American schedule slips, as 
>some
>space experts predict.
>
>Beating the U.S. back to the moon would be a feather in a resurgent China's
>cap with psychological as well as military implications. Last year, China
>became the first nation in the world to shoot down a space satellite,
>setting off alarm bells in the Pentagon. Some defense analysts foresee a
>long-range competition between the U.S. and China for future military
>control of space.
>
>America is still far ahead of China in space. The Chinese are aiming to
>duplicate a feat that this country accomplished almost 40 years ago. The
>first two Apollo astronauts landed on the moon in 1969, when Richard Nixon
>was in the White House.
>
>In addition, NASA's back-to-the-moon program is substantially bolder than
>China's.
>
>``They're taking an Apollo-like approach,'' Gilbreth said. ``Our program is
>much more ambitious than Apollo. We're going to put four people on the moon
>for seven days, eventually for six months. China is looking for a minimum
>capability. We're looking to put an outpost on the moon.''
>
>He called China's space program ``very impressive,'' but said, ``We're not
>in a race. We're going for the long haul.''
>
>China's interest in space dates to the 1950s. It sent up its first 
>satellite
>in 1970, lofted its first astronaut into space in 2003 and launched a
>mission to orbit the moon in 2007.
>
>Russia has landed robots on the moon but not humans.
>
>NASA's new Lunar Reconnaissance Orbit is scheduled to launch this November.
>The first unmanned test flight of Orion, the next lunar lander, won't come
>until 2015.
>
>As for the 2020 target for U.S. astronauts to land on the moon, a
>blue-ribbon panel of space experts recently expressed doubt that the
>timetable will be met.
>
>``Human missions to the moon by the year 2020 ... are exceedingly
>unlikely,'' Kathryn Thornton, a member of the panel and a University of
>Virginia engineering professor, told the House Science Committee on April 
>3.
>
>
>


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