[FPSPACE] Russians disappoint South Africa once too much

[Keith Gottschalk]

Dear Baris,

What are the "obvious reasons" why the South African DST microsat "may
not fly with Chinese and Indian LVs "?

 SpaceX is interesting. Here is a company that has not yet successfully
launched anything into orbit - but its website already boasts a launch
manifest with ten paying customers on top of self-funded flights. Time
will tell us....

yours, Keith

>>> "Baris Gencay" <baris.gencay at gmail.com> 02/15/08 3:18 PM >>>
Hello Keith,

>Thank you for the update. If South Africa has this problem, it doesn't
seem 
>reasonable to negotiate with other Russian Launch Contractors. So, the

>leftover is Chinese, Indian and US Companies. Obviously, Sumbandilasat
may 
>not fly with Chinese and Indian LVs with some obvious reasons. So
there is 
>only US SpaceX or European Vega left. Vega will make the maiden flight
in 
>December 2008. SpaceX is still postponing the Razaksat Launch. They 
>announced yesterday that the launch will take place in Q3 2008, if it
will 
>not re-re-re-re scheduled again.
>
>So who is left? Nobody!
>
>I really wonder how will they manage? South Koreans will try KSLV-1 in
2008 
>but they are not sure about commercialization. Developing countries in
space 
>tech will have huge difficulties in launching their satellite because
of 
>many non-linear problems...
>
>Baris
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>----- Original Message ----- 
>From: "Keith Gottschalk" <kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za>
>To: "Friends & Partners FPSPACE" <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
>Sent: Friday, February 15, 2008 2:34 PM
>Subject: [FPSPACE] Russians disappoint South Africa once too much
>
>
>>   A sad tale.
>>
>>   A few years back, South Africa's Department of Science &
Technology
>> invited tenders to launch a micro-sat made by a university spin-off.
It
>> got a few offers for piggy-back lifts with other customers'
launches.
>>
>>    But only the Russian  military offered a dedicated launch. A
>> sub-launched missile to whatever orbital inclination & altitude
South
>> Africa wanted. This was using the same type of missile from the same
sub
>> that failed in trying to orbit the Solar Sail for the [U.S.]
Planetary
>> Society led by Bruce Murray, I think. SA's DST signed up for that.
>>
>>    The original launch date was set for 16 December 2006. A school
>> kiddies competition baptized the microsat Sumbandila, meaning "Lead
the
>> Way" in Venda, one of our eleven official languages, also spoken
across
>> the border in southern Zimbabwe. Then, the SA side postponed the
launch
>> from Dec 2006 until April 2007, so as to upgrade an experimental
remote
>> sensing system into a fully operational system.
>>
>>      But after that, the relevant Russian authority kept postponing
&
>> postponing the launch for "administrative requirements". After TEN
>> MONTHS of further postponements, last week the Russian authority
>> "withdrew authorization to launch" seven days before the most
recently
>> re-re-re-scheduled lift-off.
>>
>>      This was the last straw for South Africa. The SA DST has now
>> ended the arrangements with the Russians. A Moscow friend emailed
me
>> that RosaviaKosmos told the media that the agreement was not with
them,
>> but with a Russian military authority.
>>
>>     We can only speculate what went wrong. After the contract was
>> originally signed, oil and gas prices have roughly quadrupled, so
the
>> Russian armed forces budgets are no longer squeezed. Therefore they
no
>> longer care so much about earning a bit extra off-book? Neither the
U.S.
>> Planetary Society, nor South Africa's DST, will again hire a
Russian
>> missile-firing sub.
>>
>>     South Africa's DST is now negotiating with other countries and
>> companies. It's back to the piggy-back seat under the payload
faring, &
>> dropping off our microsat into whatever orbit the main customer
wants.
>> There is apparently more than one opportunity during what's left of
>> 2008, where a SLV has a 100 kgs of payload to spare. Otherwise it'll
now
>> be 2009...
>>
>> Keith

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