[FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!
jeoberg at comcast.net
Fri Aug 22 13:23:46 EDT 2008
"I think the figures speak for themselves . .....but again...as a
hand-waving non-expert ... etc."
Let's be sure we can agree on the figures:
International treaty standard for max non-mitigated casualty probability:
1 in 100,000
Calculated probability of casualty from USA-193 hydrazine tank hitting the
200 to 400 in 100,000
Comparison: 200 to 400 >>>> 1
Calculated probability of tank of frozen hydrazine reaching surface
(from people who do space ops for a living) ~ 1.00
(from academics who don't like Bush Administration) ~0.00
This is the area to focus our pooled specializations on. It's what I focused
in my IEEE Spectrum article. Open for discussion....
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>
To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 12:13 PM
Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!
> Thanks for that insight.......
> 1) I'm sure the off chance that some Peruvian nomad "might" get vaporized
> by a wayward ice cube doesn't merit $100 million (Apologies to any
> list members )
> 2) As a hand-waving non-expert I bow to your superior knowledge
> 3) "how DARE thePentagon expose the entire world to such unacceptable
> hazards?" ..... Governments do that every day , this time they just got
> found out !
> 4) I think the figures speak for themselves . .....but again...as a
> hand-waving non-expert ... etc.
> Stay cool ! :O)
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jim Oberg" <jeoberg at comcast.net>
> To: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>;
> <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
> Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 5:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!
>> .. nor does anyone automatically believe 'experts' on news media
>> rolladexes but on left-wing (or right-wing, very rarely!) lobby group
>> 'think tanks'....
>> Fortunately, in space technology, we have a transparent and unforgiving
>> with which to compare ideas.
>> And that environment persuades me that:
>> 1. The chance of human fatality in this case has been calculated in
>> different ways and from different starting points and is in the
>> 2,000 to 4,000 chances per 100,000, which compares to the
>> international standard of mitigation required for anything greater
>> than 1 in 100,000.
>> 2. The likelihood of a frozen hydrazine tank surviving to ground
>> impact is very, very high, and hand-waving non-experts with
>> pre-determined agendas have nothing credible to contribute
>> to this issue.
>> 3. Failure to take countermeasures would have received just as loud
>> the same critics, with the arithmetic sign simply reversed -- how DARE
>> Pentagon expose the entire world to such unacceptable hazards?
>> 4. Absence of injuries in the past was NOT due to dependence on
>> favorable odds, it was in large measure due to active mitigation,
>> especially of heavy payloads being deorbited deliberately, and
>> those who argue 'from history' that past results prove NO mitigation
>> was needed THIS time are relying on their own ignorance and that of their
>> target audience.
>> ... among other tentative conclusions.
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>
>> To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
>> Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 11:38 AM
>> Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!
>>>I dont have an issue Jim , just showing a healthy scepticism , after all
>>> no-one believes everything a government tells them.....do they ?
>>> ....And it seems from the responses here
>>> I am not alone.
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