[FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!

[Jim Oberg]

"I think the figures speak for themselves . .....but again...as a
hand-waving non-expert ... etc."

Let's be sure we can agree on the figures:

International treaty standard for max non-mitigated casualty probability:

1 in 100,000

Calculated probability of casualty from USA-193 hydrazine tank hitting the 
ground:

200 to 400 in 100,000


Comparison:   200 to 400  >>>>  1


Calculated probability of tank of frozen hydrazine reaching surface 
essentially intact:

(from people who do space ops for a living)     ~ 1.00

(from academics who don't like Bush Administration)    ~0.00

This is the area to focus our pooled specializations on. It's what I focused 
on
in my IEEE Spectrum article. Open for discussion....


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>
To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 12:13 PM
Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!


> Thanks for that insight.......
>
> 1)  I'm sure the off chance that some Peruvian nomad "might" get vaporized
> by a wayward ice cube doesn't merit $100 million (Apologies to any 
> Peruvian
> list members )
>
> 2) As a hand-waving non-expert I bow to your superior knowledge
>
> 3) "how DARE thePentagon expose the entire world to such unacceptable
> hazards?" .....  Governments do that every day , this time they just got
> found out !
>
> 4)  I think the figures speak for themselves . .....but again...as a
> hand-waving non-expert ... etc.
>
>
>
> Stay cool  !  :O)
>
> John
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Jim Oberg" <jeoberg at comcast.net>
> To: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>;
> <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
> Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 5:55 PM
> Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!
>
>
>>
>> .. nor does anyone automatically believe 'experts' on news media
>> rolladexes but on left-wing (or right-wing, very rarely!) lobby group
>> 'think tanks'....
>>
>> Fortunately, in space technology, we have a transparent and unforgiving
>> environment
>> with which to compare ideas.
>>
>> And that environment persuades me that:
>>
>> 1. The chance of human fatality in this case has been calculated in
>> different ways and from different starting points and is in the
>> 2,000 to 4,000 chances per 100,000, which compares to the
>> international standard of mitigation required for anything greater
>> than 1 in 100,000.
>>
>> 2. The likelihood of a frozen hydrazine tank surviving to ground
>> impact is very, very high, and hand-waving non-experts with
>> pre-determined agendas have nothing credible to contribute
>> to this issue.
>>
>> 3. Failure to take countermeasures would have received just as loud 
>> whines
>> from
>> the same critics, with the arithmetic sign simply reversed -- how DARE 
>> the
>> Pentagon expose the entire world to such unacceptable hazards?
>>
>> 4. Absence of injuries in the past was NOT due to dependence on
>> favorable odds, it was in large measure due to active mitigation,
>> especially of heavy payloads being deorbited deliberately, and
>> those who argue 'from history' that past results prove NO mitigation
>> was needed THIS time are relying on their own ignorance and that of their
>> target audience.
>>
>> ... among other tentative conclusions.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message ----- 
>> From: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>
>> To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
>> Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 11:38 AM
>> Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!
>>
>>
>>>I dont have an issue Jim , just showing a healthy scepticism , after all
>>> no-one believes everything a government tells them.....do they ?
>>>
>>> ....And it seems from the responses here
>>>
>>> http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/08/shooting-down-satellite-prudent-public.html
>>>
>>> I am not alone.
>>>
>>
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>
>
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