[FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!

[Jim Oberg]

.. nor does anyone automatically believe 'experts' on news media
rolladexes but on left-wing (or right-wing, very rarely!) lobby group
'think tanks'....

Fortunately, in space technology, we have a transparent and unforgiving 
environment
with which to compare ideas.

And that environment persuades me that:

1. The chance of human fatality in this case has been calculated in
different ways and from different starting points and is in the
2,000 to 4,000 chances per 100,000, which compares to the
international standard of mitigation required for anything greater
than 1 in 100,000.

2. The likelihood of a frozen hydrazine tank surviving to ground
impact is very, very high, and hand-waving non-experts with
pre-determined agendas have nothing credible to contribute
to this issue.

3. Failure to take countermeasures would have received just as loud whines 
from
the same critics, with the arithmetic sign simply reversed -- how DARE the
Pentagon expose the entire world to such unacceptable hazards?

4. Absence of injuries in the past was NOT due to dependence on
favorable odds, it was in large measure due to active mitigation,
especially of heavy payloads being deorbited deliberately, and
those who argue 'from history' that past results prove NO mitigation
was needed THIS time are relying on their own ignorance and that of their
target audience.

... among other tentative conclusions.




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "John Locker" <john at satcom.freeserve.co.uk>
To: <fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Friday, August 22, 2008 11:38 AM
Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Burnt Frost starts to melt.. .!


>I dont have an issue Jim , just showing a healthy scepticism , after all
> no-one believes everything a government tells them.....do they ?
>
> ....And it seems from the responses here
>
> http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/08/shooting-down-satellite-prudent-public.html
>
> I am not alone.
>