[FPSPACE] 3rd SpaceX flop in a row

Keith Gottschalk kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za
Fri Aug 8 11:05:18 EDT 2008


    When there was a loud silence from FPSPACE about SpaceX's latest
launch, I went to their website.
This time the failure was due to a stage refusing to separate.

   In Eldon Musk's favour is that he is a model of how to be
transparent and upfront. Even after the worst news, no bluster, no
blaming it on foreign governments, customers' payload not meeting launch
specs. Only telling it straight, with the promise of all details as soon
as an engineering post-mortem diagnoses them.

     SpaceX has only survived so far because Musk has capital that the
deceased Roton could only dream of. It is a stunning achievement of
persuasiveness that SpaceX can boast a manifest of ten paying customers
before making one successful launch.
So far, none of his customers has withdrawn.

   Now, as a South African, I will cheer when the South African-born
Eldon Musk succeeds.  But space analysts need to ask: OK, Musk with
jutting jaw has announced that SpaceX is proceeding with constructing
the 4th & 5th rocket, with the 6th about to start, implying his
financial reserves can survive three further failures.

    The question is: how many further launch failures will his future
customers stomach before they start to edge away & seek alternative
launch companies? Five failures? Six failures? Until SpaceX can get the
small things right, they won't get the big thing right.

- Keith
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