[FPSPACE] Space leadership

[E.P. Grondine]

Hi John - 

An obsessive focus on manned flight to Mars does not constitute space leadership. Neither do imaginary launch systems, or imaginary physics, or imaginary economics.

First off you have to have great launch systems capable of supporting all your national goals in a very cost effective manner. 

You want to be able to provide com, weather, remote sensing, and defense services. You need the launchers, and you need the sat manufacturers, and you need the ground device manufacturers.

Long term, the two main science goals appear to me to be understanding the weather and managing planetary defense, the last goal key to world leadership and to man's survival and development.

Let's make some lists.

China: Long March 5, 100 sats, Shenzhou, and the lab, followed by the station and then CAPS. That's where China is. Ground device manufacturer.

US: Ares 1 a dog, no manned access capability for years. (We need to drop Ares 1 and go with Direct, IMO.) No manned system for EELVs, no economies of scale. Many new competitors in com sat manufacture. 

ESA: Ariane 5, manned capsule with Russia, little ground device manufacture(?)

Russia: Angara in 2014, capsule with Europe, new com sats. Still staggering from collapse of Soviet Union.

Japan: H2, sat manufacturers for all types, own massive share of ground device market (say 85% component level), but China and Korea own some.

If anyone cares to expand this list, please do 
EP (still staggering from stroke)



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