[FPSPACE] Long March 5 to launch in 2013

[E.P. Grondine]

By using a heavy medium and docking, you lower the cost of manned missions by a large amount. 

By man rating the launcher you gain improvement in your satellite launch system, lower insurance costs, and  you lower your costs through economies of scale.

That said, Goldin's plan to convert the shuttle into a heavy launcher made far more sense than Griffin's design to develop it into a heavy medium, in the opinion of many. I look forward to the Ares 5.

PS - In his article Dwayne ignored Chinese statements on their plans which are well translated. But he's right: there is no race.  China has no intention of racing, and like Griffin told the Senators, China may well get to the Moon before the US.

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas

> Date: Wed, 21 Nov 2007 15:55:54 +0200
> From: kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za
> To: fpspace at friends-partners.org
> Subject: [FPSPACE] Long March 5 to launch in 2013
> 
> Dear Anatoly,
> 
>   alas, all too true!  Dwayne Day was often making the point that
> stretching out a programme means that you double the same salary and
> storage expenses for the same number of launches.
> 
>    The best we can hope for is that one of the twelve men who landed on
> the Moon will still be alive in a wheelchair in some old-age home, by
> the time that we have a resumption of human pesence on the Moon. Next
> time for keeps.
> 
> - Keith
> 
> >>>> <agzak at optonline.net> 11/21/07 2:59 PM >>>
> >Keith:
> >
> >Always love your thought-provoking comments. I suspect that Chinese
> space program is still probably a subject to law of 
> >economics, which states that flying less frequently does not make it
> cheaper and, in fact, it makes it more expensive. That's 
> >why one Saturn V mission in two years was perhaps even less
> sustainable than two or four per year.
> >
> >
> >Anatoly Zak
> >http://www.russianspaceweb.com 
> >
> >
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Keith Gottschalk 
> >Date: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 7:29 am
> >Subject: [FPSPACE] Long March 5 to launch in 2013
> >To: FPSpace 
> >
> >> >>>> Paolo Ulivi 11/20/07 9:50 PM >>>
> >> >The slow pace of the Chinese space program is always amazing!
> >> 
> >> Well, since Feng Jishen invented the rocket in 970 AD, it seems to
> >> have picked up a little!
> >> 
> >> Better slow but steady rather than any more Apollo boom-&-
> >> busts. If
> >> NASA had continued to send even merely one Saturn 5 per two 
> >> years to the
> >> Moon after 1972, we would never have seen the loony Apollo
> denialist
> >> conspiracy theory website. Those kids were not yet out of high
> school
> >> when the last crew of three returned. ISRO has a similar
> >> decade-by-decade plan. 
> >> 
> >> So by 2013 LM5 brings a Chinese equivalent to Proton, or the
> >> heaviest-lift variants yet proposed for Ariane 5, Atlas 5, & 
> >> Delta 4. No
> >> one is yet going back to a Saturn 5 class launcher, unless Ares 
> >> gets all
> >> its budget.
> >> 
> >> - Keith
> >> 
> >
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >FPSPACE mailing list
> >FPSPACE at friends-partners.org 
> >http://www.friends-partners.org/mailman/listinfo/fpspace 
> 

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