[FPSPACE] Oberg on a nonexistant Chinese manned Mars program

[E.P. Grondine]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21546012/page/2/

Hi Jim, all - 

"more interesting locations"? - maybe for you, but not for China's leadership.

They are spending peoples money on these launches and devices, and they have to be cost justified.  That's why the technologies for CAPS ( the Moon based Asteroid and Comet Protection System - see my earlier posts in the fpspace archives on this) and the Experimental Laboratory are being developed.

It makes no sense, neither in China nor here, to spend hundreds of billions to fly a few men to Mars to do the work of robots.  

The transportation costs are too high, and likely to remain too high,  for any economically justified program for the manned exploration and development of Mars.

This does not hold for the Moon.

IMO the last chance for a reasonably priced manned Mars shot in our lifetimes ended with the collapse of Energia storage shed, and the end of Marse Piat.  I  know conditions were difficult almost to the point of impossible, but I don't think Koptev or Semenov managed realistically or responsibly during this period, and the roof collapse is indicative. 

My guess, and its a reasonably well informed one, is that China will have bases on the Moon by then.  Where Russia and the US will be is anyone's guess ... perhaps Mars after 2035. Maybe China will participate then, maybe not.

 Griffin will testify on Thursday.








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