[FPSPACE] thinking about Ares & Orion

[E.P. Grondine]

>From: "Keith Gottschalk" <kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za>
>
>              It seems to me that for NASA to try to get a Saturn 5 size
>budget again would be a very tough row to hoe.

Yes indeed.

>     Years ago, on FPSPACE,  JimO, Dwayne D, & other historians debated
>at length that May 1961 saw a unique concentration of unique political
>factors, even within the Cold War, which never again occurred, and
>certainly don't occur today. That alone enabled NASA to get equivalent
>to was it 5% or whatever of the Pentagon budget, compared to today's
>1%.

5% of the Federal Budget, if my stroke has not affected my memory of that.

>
>      Gagarin's flight had followed the Bay of Pigs. Also, Sputnik &
>Gagarin were the only times in the seventy years of the Soviet Union
>that it scored technology firsts, actually "caught up with West" &
>overtook the USA.
>
>      First, in 2007 by contrast, even if the USG withdraws from being
>overextended in this or that Middle East country, it will not see that
>as a defeat due to Russia or the PRC.
>
>         Second, even if the PRC puts a probe on the Moon, & ultimately
>a manned base, the PRC shows no signs of trying to put missiles in Cuba
>nor Venezuela - it prefers to tender to Walmart. The Pentagon will
>continue to get its conventional weaponry, but voters & Congress do not
>see it as a  national prestige priority to match the PRC moonshot for
>moonshot.

As I noted here before, it's not simply a Moonshot, its CAPS (the Comet and 
Asteroid Protection System).

>          Third, while PRC ability to apply quality control to consumer
>electronics is noted, it is not seen as threatening to overtake US
>hi-tech leads on a range of fronts.

China has stated their scientific technologies goals repeatedly.

>India is increasingly regarded as an
>allied, fellow democracy.

Yes - India launches Israeli satellites, among other things it does for 
Israel.  Funny how that works...

>Therefore, anything ISRO might do in space is
>no more a threat or rivalry than what ESA or JAXA does in space.


Right.

>
>           Clearly, an Ares & Orion would be four decades more modern
>than a Saturn 5 & Apollo capsule.

Since the SRBs are integral, try 1969 for Ares' "modernity".

Their electronics will be incomparably
>lighter, smaller, & more capable. Current welding & other techniques
>will make it vastly less labour-intensive to build Ares than Saturn. But
>as long as you are again walking the ELV route, your costs in real terms
>must be much around the same order off magnitude.
>
>      There is no substitute for biting the bullet of the R&D costs
>towards a true RLV. Instead of abandoning the STS, incremental
>improvement in it might be the optimal path.  To replace the SRBs with
>two fly-back liquid-propellant boosters will eliminate the costs for two
>ships and two crews. It will end the costs of returning segments to
>their manufacturer for re-fabrication.

True - von Braun quit NASA when the SRBs were substitutued for pressure fed 
liquids boosters.
But its too late now, and Thiokol has plenty of money for lobbying from 
weapons sales for Iraq.

>     The challenges are reducing any STS turn-around time from three
>months to say three hours. At the very least, three days. This would
>require as the following incremental upgrade making the ET an integral
>part of the spacecraft, as an internal tank.
>
>    Whether the Eldon Musk route, and the sub-orbital tourist hops in
>winged craft routes will eventually merge in  one or other start-up
>company, time will tell. So far, virtually none of these can raise the
>capital they require.

Musk has his money, and is likely to succeed, in my estimate, though with 
delays.
No one else will, again in my estimate - but then one never knows.
>
>      A representative example of having fantasy business plans must be
>the Space Island Group. Look at the price they claim to be able to
>deliver SPS electricity to the ground - by using ELVs for all their
>lifting of infrastructure! Even worse, they propose to not buy off the
>shelf any of the ELVs that could reach GSO - Ariane 5, Atlas 5, Delta 4,
>GSLV mk.3, Long March 2F, or Proton. They need to R&D from scratch a
>STS-derived ELV. Bar the SSMEs, they need to modify every other
>component.
>
>       No wonder the investment & financial markets are unconvinced. It
>will be interesting to watch how the spaceflight future actually
>unfolds.

>Keith


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