[FPSPACE] Study backs COTS[Scanned by MAIL]

[Matula, Thomas L.]

David,

You should move beyond the narrow world of space advocates and attend some of the meetings and conferences which involve folks in the field of economic development, or even just attend a Chamber of Commerce or industry association meeting to learn how industries are developed in the real world via public/private partnerships, a strategy that has built most of the U.S. economy. But then you would probably just confuse those groups with some central planning committee in your "Ayn Rand" mind set. Capitalism in the "Ayn Rand" form is found only in fantasy, the real world version is much different. I could supply you a good reading list on comparative economics, but I am sure you prefer your beliefs.

You know its funny how alt.space advocates like yourself think nothing of learning how physics or chemistry works in order to build your rockets, but then ignore the principles, techniques and practices of economic development when envisioning your space industries. Then when the pesudo-industries come crashing down around you, like orbital RLVs and microgravity manufacturing dreams did, you call it "bad Luck".  

I do look forward to seeing the first suborbital tourism firm actually start flying people. But when it does it will likely, like Blue Origins, have no connection to the X-Prize and in fact may have had to climb a bigger regulatory barrier because of it. But we should see in a few more years. And until then you will continue to live in your dreams of a future that never was. 

And so, as requested I will not respond to future emails. But before I go I will predict that come 2010 the first suborbital tourist flights will still be somewhere in the undefined future, COTS will be over and a dry hole for ISS servicing and you will still be claiming the future golden age of alt.space is just around the corner, if only NASA would not stand in your way


Tom



-----Original Message-----
From: fpspace-bounces at friends-partners.org on behalf of David Anderman
Sent: Tue 2/13/2007 11:36 AM
To: fpspace at friends-partners.org
Subject: Re: [FPSPACE] Study backs COTS[Scanned by MAIL]
 
Dr. Matula:

There is little doubt that individual companies engage in strategic 
planning for the future of their enterprise; this is a vastly 
different issue than planning related to the future of an industry, 
or, as you suggest, planning *which* industry should be supported by us.

I cannot offer any insight as to which industries in space or which 
companies will succeed - as opposed to your offerings here. Perhaps 
you have special knowledge of planned capitalism that I do not possess.

DWA

PS: I believe that we are now wildly off track, and we could continue 
this discussion beyond the point during which people will be paying 
money for tickets for rides into space. All I can say concerning 
suborbital space tourism is:

If we are lucky, some companies will sell tickets and transport 
people into space. Some of those companies will fail. We are lucky, 
at least one will survive and maybe make a profit.



At 09:24 AM 2/13/2007, Matula, Thomas L. wrote:
>David,
>
>Funny thing, There is a discipline invented by American Capitalists 
>named marketing which does just that, plan for success in new 
>markets. I know most folks confuse marketing with promotion, which 
>is just the tip of the iceberg that folks outside of marketing see. 
>Combined with the recent advances in the science of economics, ones 
>which have integrated complexity theory and systems evolution and 
>capitalism is not as mysterious as you make it out to be.

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