[FPSPACE] Shenzhou 6 calculations

[David Woods]

Folks,

Phil Clark is experiencing some problems posting messages to FPSpace.  
We have seen that sort of thing before and I though it had finally been 
corrected and gone away.  If any of you are having problems, let me 
know.  In the meantime, I do know that posting messages in plain text 
will get through.

Dave Woods
FPSpace Administrator
<> 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Phillip Clark <mailto:molniya at dircon.co.uk>
To: FPSPACE <mailto:fpspace at friends-partners.org>
Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2005 7:10 PM
Subject: Shenzhou 6 calculations

The August 8th, 2005 issue of my Worldwide Satellite Launches included 
the following comments about the forthcoming Shenzhou 6 flight:-
 

SHENZHOU 6 - CHINA'S SECOND MANNED SPACEFLIGHT

 

Some calculations can be done in advance of China's second manned space 
launch, which reportedly will take place on October 11, 2005.   The 
Chinese have officially said that there will be two yuhangyuans on the 
flight and that the flight will last ~5 days.

 

The flights of Shenzhou 2, 3, 4 and 5 used essentially the same initial 
orbital altitudes and after a main manoeuvre entered a 31-circuit 
repeating orbit: on Shenzhou 3, 4 and 5 the main manoeuvre came 
approximately seven hours after launch.   If Shenzhou 6 flies the same 
profile - and there is no reason to suggest that it will not - then the 
mission duration should be 115 hours 32 minutes, with a possible error 
in this estimate of +2 minutes (see Phillip Clark, "Predicting Shen Zhou 
6 launch times", Spaceflight, vol 47, issue 3, March 2005, page 115).

 

The landing of Shenzhou 5 was times to come within a few minutes of the 
time of sunrise at the Dorbod Xi landing site and if the same is planned 
for Shenzhou 6 then the launch time can be calculated.   On October 16, 
2005 sunrise takes place at Dorbod Xi at 6h 27m Beijing Time (which is 
the same as Dorbod Xi local time): therefore the corresponding launch 
time is just before 11.00 Beijing Time on October 11, 03.00 UT.

 

Should the launch come earlier or later than October 11, then the 
corresponding sunrise times at Dorbod Xi are; Oct 1 - 6h 08m, Oct 6 - 6h 
13m, Oct 11 - 6h 20m, Oct 16 - 6h 27m, Oct 21 - 6h 34m, Oct 26 - 6h 40m 
and Oct 31 - 6h 46m.

 

Rex Hall has reported that four yuhangyuan names have appeared on 
various web sites for the prime and back-up crews; these are Nie 
Haishen, Zhai Zhigang (who were in the final training group for Shenzhou 
5), Li Qinglong and Wu Jie.   Photographs have been published of Wu and 
Nie apparently training as a two-man crew, but some web sites suggest 
that the pairings for Shenzhou 6 might be Wu + Zhai and Li + Nie.

 
 
Using "exact arithmetic" the launch time should be 10.55 Beijing Time, 
02.55 UT (03.55 BST).
 
Although I am highly suspicious there have been recent Chinese reports 
that the flight will last for up to 7 days.   A flight after ~6 days 
gives the wrong equator crossing longitudes, so I am ignoring that 
possibility.   On October 18 sunrise at Dorbod Xi is ~06.29 Beijing Time 
and the mission duration will be 162h 36m.   Backtracking, this gives a 
launch time of 11.53 Beijing Time, 03.53 UT (04.53 BST) on October 11.
 
So, if launch comes on October 11 and recovery is intended close to the 
local sunrise time the planned mission duration will be indicated by the 
launch time being 02.55 UT for a flight of ~5 days or ~03.53 UT for a 
flight of ~7 days.
 
 
Phillip Clark
 
__________________________________________________________________________
 
Phillip S Clark                      Flat 2 Wellington House
Molniya Space Consultancy            Castle Hill Passage
                                     Hastings
Compiler/Publisher                   East Sussex   TN34 1PG
   Worldwide Satellite Launches      United Kingdom
 
PERSONAL PHILOSOPHY
 
(1)   The only way to comprehend the deeds and utterances of
politicians is with the basic knowledge that they had their brains
surgically removed before they were allowed to enter politics: no
counter-examples to disprove this theory are known.
 
(2)   Why should the Universe be comprehensible to human beings ?
 
(3)   "Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana" from Beyond
Coincidence by Martin Plimmer and Brian King, page 28.
 
(4)   "To live outside the law you must be honest" (The Zim, 1966).
__________________________________________________________________________