[FPSPACE] From the Cosmos 1 Weblog

[LARRY KLAES]

http://planetary.org/solarsailblog/index_03.html

Jun 21, 2005 | 16:15 PDT | 23:15 UTC
Launch plus 3 hours 29min

There's not going to be any new information for a while.

It is now past 3 am in Moscow, and people are exhausted. Lou has hung up the 
phone with us. Over there, they switched from a nominal mode of operation to 
one in which they will search for the spacecraft every chance they get, the 
next one being at about 02:39:54 UT (19:39:54 here). During that search, 
they'll also send a command to the spacecraft to talk. But since no station 
has detected the spacecraft since Petropavlovsk, and Strategic Command has 
not detected it either, we don't know where the spacecraft is. Again, given 
the lack of detection by Strategic Command the two most likely scenarios at 
this point are failure to enter orbit at all, or entry into an unexpected 
orbit. If we don't know where the spacecraft is, we don't know where the 
radio antennas should be pointed and when they should be listening, which 
could make it a long search. Hours, days, maybe even a week. We don't know.

In any event, there is not likely to be any new information for a couple of 
hours. For those of you who have been following my entries, I thank you, and 
thank you also for the messages of support and hope that have been coming 
in. I wish I had had more exciting news to share with you. I will certainly 
tell you more news once I hear anything. I still hope that we may hear 
something good. Whatever I hear, I'll tell you. But I will probably be 
silent for a couple of hours.

Jun 21, 2005 | 16:00 PDT | 23:00 UTC
Launch plus 3 hours 14 min

Planetary Society official statement

The Cosmos 1 spacecraft was launched today but we cannot, at this time, 
confirm a successful orbit injection. Some launch vehicle and spacecraft 
telemetry data gave ambiguous information during the launch. Since the orbit 
insertion burn, no signal has been received from the spacecraft. There are 
continuing efforts to receive a signal from the spacecraft.

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:52 PDT | 22:52 UTC
Launch plus 3 hours 6 min

So, how do you feel?

Another good question, and a good answer from Lou: that he was not feeling 
anything yet, or at least trying not to. We don't know what to feel. Annie 
says she feels numb. As for me, I feel very detached. I feel like a pipe 
through which information is flowing. What does the pipe feel?

I think it's hard to know what to feel when we just don't know what 
happened. If it was a launch vehicle failure, we'd be, well, annoyed, 
because we never got to test what we were trying to test. If it was 
something on our spacecraft, then we failed doing what we were trying to do. 
And in space exploration, that's noble. Space exploration is risky. It's 
hard. And actually, let me say here that I feel like we need to take on more 
risk than we have been in space exploration. The public doesn't like risk, 
and they hate failure. But failures happen. They shouldn't happen for stupid 
reasons. But if they happen when you were trying something risky, you learn. 
That teaches you something. At least it should. And you try harder next 
time.

But it may not have failed!! Don't forget that. We haven't given up hope 
yet.

In a few hours, there will be major efforts made to communicate with the 
spacecraft when it is supposed to pass over Panska Ves.

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:43 PDT | 22:43 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 57 min

What the Doppler data says

..it doesn't say anything for sure. It does look like there is at least 
something in there that indicates that something started nominally. That is, 
it looked smooth, and then it looked the velocity was increasing as 
expected, and then all of a sudden it goes noisy.

Now, "noise" is actually a real technical term. "Noise" means that the data 
looks scruffy and rough. There's no clear pattern to it. Patterns represent 
information. Lack of pattern represents lack of information. Now, there 
could be a pattern in that data that we just don't understand yet. Once that 
pattern comes into focus, it should tell us something about what was going 
on with the spacecraft. We'll keep analyzing. Moscow will too.

Also, I hasten to add that what looks like "noise" now isn't necessarily 
bad. The rocket was probably firing during that noisy period, and that alone 
could have made the data noisy.

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:31 PDT | 22:31 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 45 min

Too much noise, not enough analysis

That about sums it up.

There was an interesting question just asked at the press conference: What 
were we most worried about? Bruce answered that the sail deployment was the 
most worrisome moment in this mission, and I actually always felt the same 
way. We just were not that worried about the launch vehicle. We were a 
little worried about the orbit insertion burn, but not the launch vehicle --  
we were pretty confident about that. So if we did have a launch vehicle 
"anomaly," (that is, if something went wrong with the launch vehicle), then 
we will be surprised and dismayed about that.

Still, though, no analysis. No surety. We just don't know anything for sure. 
There's only lots of speculation.

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:13 PDT | 22:13 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 28 min

So what does this mean?

What this means is that we've still got a couple good news pieces -- data 
from the spacecraft -- but we have bad news data -- no tracking from Space 
Comm. We just don't know. It's frustrating.

What's making it harder to say anything is the fact that we have some data 
that's conflicting. There was some data that was received from the launch 
vehicle about 200-250 seconds after the launch. After that, there may have 
been something wrong with it, or some ambiguity in it. But what that 
ambiguity is, we don't understand -- because the only information on it came 
via cell phone from the Navy Severomorsk. No one here or in Moscow has seen 
what that data looks like.

Then there's this other data, the Doppler data that we got from Kamchatka. 
The data came both before the orbit insertion burn, and during the burn. 
That data indicates that the spacecraft was working at least partially 
properly at that time -- which is awfully confusing if there was a launch 
vehicle problem.

Actually, if it turns out that there was something wrong, that Kamchatka 
data will be immensely valuable. And at least the worst conceiveable outcome 
HAS NOT happened -- the spacecraft WAS heard from over Kamchatka. Some data 
is way better than no data.

On the other hand, there's that lack of detection by Space Command. At a 
minimum, that means that the spacecraft was not where Space Command expected 
it to be, which is a big worry. There are two possibilities. Either the 
orbit is not the nominal one -- it's not in the right place, but it is in AN 
orbit -- or it didn't go into orbit. The third possibility is that Space 
Command messed up, but that's less likely than the other two. We have 
absolutely no idea which of those possibilities is true.

Jun 21, 2005 | 15:06 PDT | 22:06 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 20 min

A press conference now, information should be forthcoming.

There is some telemetry data from the launch phase that doesn't appear quite 
right. At the same point, there is this apparent indication of an orbit 
insertion motor firing at about the right time. But nothing happened after 
that, except that the data went noisy, and we don't know.

Jim is reporting now that he's been talking to Strategic Command, which has 
been tracking the spacecraft for us. They attempted to track it over both 
Shemya and Kwajunlon (sp?) and they have not seen anything at either station 
yet. And that's pretty much all we know at this point.

"We've heard nothing and we know nothing," Lou says.

Bruce Murray: "Negative news is not good news. On the other hand we do not 
have direct evidence for failure. This is not what we'd hoped to have 
happen."

Annie Druyan: "I may know now why this mission was so affordable." [That was 
a joke, but a dark one, given how little we know at this point.] "The way to 
the stars is hard. Ad astra, per aspera -- to the stars, through hard work."

Jun 21, 2005 | 14:47 PDT | 21:47 UTC
Launch plus 2 hours 1 min

No news yet, 2

It's hard to know what to update when there's no information. But I know 
there are a lot of people out there who want to know what's going on. 
Please, just be patient. We knew that this was a possibility from the start, 
though of course we had hoped that we would have those contacts.

Jun 21, 2005 | 14:28 PDT | 21:28 UTC
Launch plus 1 hours 42 min

No news yet

Sorry everybody, I wish I had more info to share with you. We are just 
waiting and waiting here. The spacecraft should be near Panska Ves and Bear 
Lakes right now. But even those contacts aren't the best. The best 
opportunities are on the 5th and 6th orbits, several hours into the mission. 
I'll tell you more as soon as I have anything to say.

Jun 21, 2005 | 14:01 PDT | 21:01 UTC
Launch plus 1 hours 17 min

This from Lou in Moscow:

Here's what we know and don't know. Indications are that orbit burn was 
received over Kamchatka. That data cuts off. This could be normal, related 
to the rocket firing; or it could indicate an anomaly. This is unknown. We 
also know that no signal was received at Kamchatka, and we also know that no 
signal was recieved at Majuro. From here on in, there's no communication at 
all wth the spacecraft until it goes over Panska Ves in the Czech Republic. 
A contingency plan for this is now being put into effect. The Panska Ves, 
Tarusa, and Bear Lakes stations will send commands to the spacecraft to try 
to turn it on. So in sum we have some precious data and a lot of silence. We 
have to wait at least 30 minutes before any possible contact, and possibly 
longer. It looks like it may be a long night here in Moscow and a long day 
in Pasadena.

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:42 PDT | 20:42 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 56 min

More info from Kamchatka

Lou reports that the Doppler data from Kamchatka indicates that duration of 
the motor firing was approximately just at that which was programmed. But no 
conclusion yet, because we have no direct telemetry signal from spacecraft.

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:39 PDT | 20:39 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 53 min

More info from Kamchatka

An update from Moscow: they have analyzed the Petropavlovsk data and all 
indications are that the spacecraft was running its program as expected, at 
least at the beginning of the Kamchatka contact. He reminds us that we did 
not necessarily expect to recieve telemetry signal at either Petropavlovsk 
or Majuro.

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:32 PDT | 20:32 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 46 min

Majuro did not receive signal.

Again, this was not wholly unexpected. We have to wait now for the next 
ground station contact, which is Panska Ves at 21:21:00 UT, about an hour 
from now.

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:21 PDT | 20:21 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 35 min

Still nothing at Majuro

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:18 PDT | 20:18 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 32 min

Little bit of signal at Petropavlovsk

Slava Linkin says Doppler signal was received at beginning, then was lost. 
That might be connected with the fact that the motor burn was happening at 
this point.

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:15 PDT | 20:15 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 31 min

Majuro does not see signal yet

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:11 PDT | 20:11 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 25 min

Report from Kamchatka is that they did not detect the spacecraft

This isn't necessarily unexpected. Petropavlovsk was a marginal contact, and 
it would have been happening while the spacecraft was spinning rapidly and 
thrusting, not an easy signal to deal with.

We are holding our breaths for the Majuro contact.

Jun 21, 2005 | 13:02 PDT | 20:02 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 16 min

The kick motor should be firing

Again, we still don't know, this is just according to the nominal timeline.

>From Moscow: nothing to report yet, everybody is still waiting. We have 
nominally reached orbit injection time, but we've got no confirmation of 
that yet.

In POP all is quiet. We are straining to hear what's being said inside the 
room at Lavochkin. There is some discussion going on, but no official 
information yet.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:56 PDT | 19:56 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 10 min

No celebration yet...

While it was exciting to hear that the launch happened, we at POP didn't 
celebrate yet. We are waiting for the first signal to be detected. That's 
what will tell us that everything is OK. That won't happen for several 
minutes.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:54 PDT | 19:54 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 8 min

Stuff we can't see...

There is a lot of stuff going on with the rocket right now that we can't 
see. By now, the fairing should have separated, and the spacecraft should be 
starting to spin up in order to achieve a precise orbit insertion burn.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:48 PDT | 19:48 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 2 min

Normal first stage separation! WE'RE OFF!

This information is being relayed from Severomorsk to Lavochkin. No official 
launch time yet, we'll get that in a few minutes.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:46 PDT | 19:46 UTC
Launch plus 0 hours 0 min

"This is Pasadena, we have nominal launch, unverified."

According to our clocks, launch just happened. We won't know if that's true 
for several minutes. Brent is continuing to read off the timeline, which you 
can read for yourself here.

>From Russia: they say we are awaiting message from Severomorsk.

Severomorsk is the Russian Navy port from which the sub carrying Cosmos 1 
sailed.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:41 PDT | 19:41 UTC
Launch minus 0 hours 5 min

"T minus 5."

Five minutes to launch. We are now requesting that everyone on the telecon 
stay quiet unless exchanging information.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:33 PDT | 19:33 UTC
Launch minus 0 hours 13 min

Ceremonial peanuts

We just passed around a jar of peanuts, in a good-luck tradition that dates 
back to Apollo.

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:31 PDT | 19:31 UTC
Launch minus 0 hours 15 min

"T minus 15 minutes."

Brent White here in ops is keeping track of the timeline.

Lou says there are 30-40 people in TsUP (the flight control center at 
Lavochkin).

Here we go, hold on to your seats....

Jun 21, 2005 | 12:06 PDT | 19:06 UTC
Launch minus 0 hours 40 min

Almost ready.

Our telecom lines are getting set up, and we're ready to go.