[FPSPACE] Zond 8

[DSFPortree at aol.com]

I'm surprised that no one caught me - I had one of those "Uh-oh!" moments 
while out shopping. I made an error re: Zond 8. Once upon a time it was assumed 
that its Indian Ocean splashdown was evidence of a failure - especially since 
it did a ballistic trajectory. When I wrote my MIR HARDWARE HERITAGE in 1994, 
there was still some question about that, though Mishin had claimed that it was 
intentional. The consensus these days is that it was in fact intentional - 
that it was meant to pioneer an L3 return trajectory. The ballistic reentry was, 
however, unintended. That occurred because the guidance system failed.

So, I guess it was about a 90% success. Zond 7 was a 100% success. Zond 6 
depressurized and crashed. Zond 5 suffered a guidance failure and missed the USSR 
- landed in the Indian Ocean. Zond 4 burned up, again apparently due to a 
guidance failure. Five missions, one complete success, two partials, and two 
failures. All unmanned. The Zonds involved in N1 and Proton failures I'll ignore.

This is not a sterling record of success. If I were trying to peddle seats on 
a Soyuz circumlunar flight, I'd be trying to say as little about Zond as 
possible.

Especially since the Zond experience is not too relevant. We aren't talking 
about flying a Zond. We're talking about flying the current model Soyuz with 
important modifications including (perhaps) a new module. The modified Soyuz 
won't be able to claim the safety record of the LEO Soyuz as its own. Two reasons 
- it'll be flying a new kind of mission and it will be substantially 
modified. And we're talking about making this new spacecraft safe for "private space 
explorers." I think that implies a more stringent safety standard - if one is 
responsible, anyway. Which means more tests. Which pushes back the schedule and 
raises the cost. Which makes me wonder how anyone could do a tourist flight 
that would pay for itself for $200 million. Which makes me even more certain 
that this is primarily a Russian goverment thing aimed at prestige.

David

David S. F. Portree
Science writer & historian
dsfportree at aol.com
Flagstaff Arizona USA

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