[FPSPACE] NEW [RUSSIAN] SPACE PROGRAM: THE PERIOD OF SURVIVAL IS OVER

[Jim Oberg]

NEW [RUSSIAN] SPACE PROGRAM: THE PERIOD OF SURVIVAL IS OVER
RIA Novosti // November 4, 2004

MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov) - The 2004 
"space year" will end for Russia in December when the government examines a 
new comprehensive federal program for the industry for 2006-2015.

The planning was for 10 years instead of the usual 5 years, therefore this 
is a new type of program and not only in terms of its length. A recent 
report by the heads of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics about Russia's 
space activities until 2035 summarized the program: "The space program's 
period of survival, when considerations of a mere existence prevailed over 
strategic planning, is over. The worst part of the crisis is over and it is 
impossible to postpone defining future strategic areas of the development 
of cosmonautics."

The report also said: "Any state program, including the space program, 
should be part of the general concept of development and consistent with 
national values, goals and tasks."

The last program (2001-2006) did not take into account the state's 
interests. The traditionally over ambitious goals combined with a small 
budget obscured space priorities and created the illusion that one area 
(the International Space Station, ISS) was more important than all others. 
The new approach to space is more balanced. While speaking at the Federal 
Space Agency at the end of October, Academician Nikolai Anfimov, general 
director of the Central Research Institute of Mechanical Engineering, said 
Russia's main space priorities included "a greater emphasis on defense 
capabilities, expanding orbital constellations, developing space science, 
and better ground-based space infrastructure." He stressed the need to 
"meet the state's interests in space and make state regulation more 
effective."

The ISS will not be ignored and Russian manned space flight facilities will 
be upgraded.

Hopefully over the next ten years Yuri Koptev, head of the Economic 
Development and Trade Ministry's defense industry department, will not have 
to complain, as he did in 2003, about the dominance of the ISS and Russia's 
humiliating role as a carter for it, while space laboratories make 
fundamental discoveries and send their results back to Earth via 
multifunctional orbital communication systems. Today, discoveries largely 
determine the economic success of a nation and its defense capability. 
Considering that Russia currently has 60% fewer satellites that it did 
during the Soviet Union, one of state's priorities is to develop, purchase 
and launch new spacecraft. In late August, Space Force Commander Viktor 
Popovkin said, "about 100 Russian-made spacecraft are currently in orbit 
and 60 of them are military. The trend of a decreasing number of satellites 
in orbit has stopped and conditions have been created for a breakthrough in 
the next 3-4 years." According to experts at the State Commission for 
Electronic Communication, in order to make a breakthrough, it is necessary 
to put 1-2 communications satellites in orbit every year. Then, by 2015 the 
group will comprise 450-600 repeaters operating on different frequencies. 
This number is sufficient to meet all civilian and military needs.

A large number of launches is impossible without well-developed ground 
infrastructure. The federal program pays due attention to the development 
of the Baikonur and Plesetsk space centers. Plesetsk will be modified to 
launch the new Russian heavy-class rocket, Angara. "Without it the space 
center will be relegated to a minor role," said Anatoly Perminov, head of 
the Federal Space Agency. This would contribute to the state's policy of 
having "an independent outlet to space."

It is difficult for the space industry to accept the state providing 70% of 
the new program funding (the state's contribution to its space strategy). 
The space industry, which was completely state-funded during the Soviet 
Union, would now like to be less dependent on the state. "Of course, it 
would be desirable," said Nikolai Anfimov, "for non-state sources [of 
funding] to be at least as high as the state's contribution."

On the other hand, properly formulated goals and their state-regulated 
implementation will provide more possibilities for a private component of 
future space budgets.
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