[FPSPACE] the Celestial Empire

[DwayneDay]

-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Gottschalk <kgottschalk at uwc.ac.za>
Sent: Aug 1, 2004 11:34 AM

Maybe a year ago. Dwayne posed a conundrum in this forum: How, he asked, can we believe Chinese  statistics of 9% annual growth rate when unemployment is rising; they have deflation; & energy consumption is falling?

   His 1st query could be explained. Alas, automation often means 3rd world countries have jobless growth, or job-shedding growth, in certain sectors. But falling energy demand while you claim 9% economic growth seemed extraordinary.

   Since his posting of so many months ago, the daily media have been full of reports of China's hunger to buy oil everywhere in the world it can. Those newspaper reports also report marine traffic jams of ships queuing outside South American and African ports while waiting to load up with raw materials for the PRC. They also report the 3 Gorges hydro-electric power station coming on stream, simultaneously with building nuclear power stations, plus coal-to-oil plants.

***********

I believe I cited a magazine article on this issue.  Also, if I remember correctly, the article did not deny that there was substantial growth in China, but that the growth was primarily in certain eastern regions, and not in the interior of the country.  There can be significant problems deep inside the country that simply do not get represented.


>    So it seems that China's boom is sustantiated. The relevance of this for FPSPACE is that a sustained space budget is only possible if there is no economic slump, where other needs have priority. 

>    The latest newspaper reports are that current Chinese statisticians might be, if anything,  understating annual economic growth, because that is what their Govt. wants to hear.

>   So far so good for the forthcoming decade of PRC budgets for the long march into lunar orbit, & into human LEO. 

And also more money for China to spend on weapons to use against their neighbors and their own people--Yippee!

You see the problem?

At its core, China still remains an authoritarian, repressive country that treats its own people pretty badly.  Speak out against the government and you go to jail.  Mention something like the SARS outbreak and go to jail (look it up).  Make too much trouble and you get a bullet in the brain.  (The Chinese government has mobile execution squads to increase efficiency in this area.)

I'm not all that negative on Chinese economic growth.  The intense poverty of the undeveloped world is certainly as hard on its citizens as repressive governments are.  But let's keep in mind that a growing, economically expanding--non-democratic--China is going to be a greater threat to its neighbors and to world piece (just like a growing, economically expanding--non-democratic--Nazi Germany was in the 1930s).  It's going to start throwing its weight around more with Taiwan (currently the target of several hundred Chinese missiles).  It's going to start shoving around Japan.  These are not desirable things.




DDAY