[FPSPACE] Shen Zhou launch time, etc
Chen Lan
chenlan@mbox2.singnet.com.sg
Thu, 9 Oct 2003 10:06:19 +0800
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Phillip, You are right.
Here is the morning Phoenix TV report:
- Launch time has been officially set at 9:00am Beijing Time Oct 15
- It denied both 90-min and 30-hour (it reported yesterday) flight and =
confirmed 21-hour duration.=20
- Chinese president Hu Jingtao will attend the launch and wil talk with =
taikonaut on board.
- SZ-5 OM will perform only simple works in 6 months. But SZ-6 OM will =
be significately different. It mentioned and confirmed the story of =
"space train".
Chen Lan
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Phillip Clark=20
To: FPSPACE=20
Sent: Thursday, October 09, 2003 6:08 AM
Subject: [FPSPACE] Shen Zhou launch time, etc
There is a problem with the reported Shen Zhou 5 launch time of about =
08.00 Beijing Time.
The Chinese have said that both launch and landing will be during =
daylight hours.
On this basis, sunrise at the landing site - which appears to be in =
the "Beijing Time" time zone (even though China does not have time zones =
!) - will be at about 06.30 BT - and therefore this is the earliest =
landing time on October 16th.
I am assuming a flight time of about 21h 24m (plus/minus 1 minute or =
so), and therefore this implies that the *earliest* launch time can be =
09.00 BT. The announced launch time of 08.00 BT would give a landing =
in darkness.
Has there been a confusion in the local times ? Maybe the launch =
will be at 08.00 "Jiuquan local time" =3D 09.00 BT ? This would solve =
to conundrum.
Right now I do not (and never have) believed the single orbit story: =
that would give a landing far to the west of the standard landing site - =
just as Gagarin landed way to the west of the "normal" Vostok-Soyuz =
landing area.
The major consideration with the flight time is the orbital module. =
That has demonstrated a delta-V capability of ~60 m/s on the SZ 2, 3, 4 =
flights. If the SZ 5 flight has no orbit-raising manoeuvre to the 335 =
km circular orbit before recovery then the orbital module will have to =
expend ~40 m/s in propellant just to reach this orbit - and that will =
leave only a third of the normal propellant for the remaining manoeuvres =
- not enough for a lifetime of about 6-8 months.
Therefore, I believe that - like SZ 3 and 4 - SZ 5 will perform an =
orbit-raising manoeuvre about 7 hours after launch. This means that =
the final equator crossing will match those of SZ 3 and 4, but not 1 or =
2. (Explanation, see my JBIS paper, May-June 2003.) In turn, this =
means a lifetime of 21h 24m or so.
I do not believe the 30-31 circuit flight story. The JBIS paper has =
shown that the nominal landing opportunities come after an *odd* number =
of days in flight: 1, 3, 5, 7.
Anyone who is interested in reproducing this analysis should contact =
me direct for permission to do so: no plagiarism, please !
Phillip Clark
molniya@dircon.co.uk
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Phillip, You are right.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Here is the morning Phoenix TV=20
report:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>- Launch time has been officially set =
at 9:00am=20
Beijing Time Oct 15</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>- It denied both 90-min and 30-hour (it =
reported=20
yesterday) flight and confirmed 21-hour duration. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>- Chinese president Hu Jingtao will =
attend the=20
launch and wil talk with taikonaut on board.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>- SZ-5 OM will perform only simple=20
works in 6 months. But SZ-6 OM will be significately =
different. It=20
mentioned and confirmed the story of "space train".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Chen Lan</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dmolniya@dircon.co.uk =
href=3D"mailto:molniya@dircon.co.uk">Phillip=20
Clark</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dfpspace@friends-partners.org=20
href=3D"mailto:fpspace@friends-partners.org">FPSPACE</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 09, =
2003 6:08=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [FPSPACE] Shen Zhou =
launch time,=20
etc</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>There is a problem with the reported =
Shen Zhou 5=20
launch time of about 08.00 Beijing Time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The Chinese have said that both =
launch and=20
landing will be during daylight hours.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>On this basis, sunrise at the landing =
site -=20
which appears to be in the "Beijing Time" time zone (even though China =
does=20
not have time zones !) - will be at about 06.30 BT - and therefore =
this is the=20
earliest landing time on October 16th.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I am assuming a flight time of about =
21h 24m=20
(plus/minus 1 minute or so), and therefore this implies that the =
*earliest*=20
launch time can be 09.00 BT. The announced launch time of =
08.00 BT=20
would give a landing in darkness.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has there been a confusion in the =
local times=20
? Maybe the launch will be at 08.00 "Jiuquan local time" =
=3D 09.00=20
BT ? This would solve to conundrum.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Right now I do not (and never have) =
believed the=20
single orbit story: that would give a landing far to the west of the =
standard=20
landing site - just as Gagarin landed way to the west of the "normal"=20
Vostok-Soyuz landing area.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The major consideration with the =
flight time is=20
the orbital module. That has demonstrated a delta-V =
capability of=20
~60 m/s on the SZ 2, 3, 4 flights. If the SZ 5 flight has =
no=20
orbit-raising manoeuvre to the 335 km circular orbit before =
recovery then=20
the orbital module will have to expend ~40 m/s in propellant just to =
reach=20
this orbit - and that will leave only a third of the normal propellant =
for the=20
remaining manoeuvres - not enough for a lifetime of about 6-8=20
months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Therefore, I believe that - like =
SZ 3 and 4=20
- SZ 5 will perform an orbit-raising manoeuvre about 7 hours =
after=20
launch. This means that the final equator crossing will =
match=20
those of SZ 3 and 4, but not 1 or 2. (Explanation, see my =
JBIS=20
paper, May-June 2003.) In turn, this means a lifetime of =
21h 24m=20
or so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I do not believe the 30-31 circuit =
flight=20
story. The JBIS paper has shown that the nominal landing=20
opportunities come after an *odd* number of days in flight: 1, 3, 5,=20
7.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Anyone who is interested in =
reproducing this=20
analysis should contact me direct for permission to do so: no =
plagiarism,=20
please !</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Phillip Clark</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:molniya@dircon.co.uk">molniya@dircon.co.uk</A></FONT></DIV=
>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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