[FPSPACE] Shen Zhou launch time, etc
Phillip Clark
molniya@dircon.co.uk
Wed, 8 Oct 2003 23:08:23 +0100
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There is a problem with the reported Shen Zhou 5 launch time of about =
08.00 Beijing Time.
The Chinese have said that both launch and landing will be during =
daylight hours.
On this basis, sunrise at the landing site - which appears to be in the =
"Beijing Time" time zone (even though China does not have time zones !) =
- will be at about 06.30 BT - and therefore this is the earliest landing =
time on October 16th.
I am assuming a flight time of about 21h 24m (plus/minus 1 minute or =
so), and therefore this implies that the *earliest* launch time can be =
09.00 BT. The announced launch time of 08.00 BT would give a landing =
in darkness.
Has there been a confusion in the local times ? Maybe the launch will =
be at 08.00 "Jiuquan local time" =3D 09.00 BT ? This would solve to =
conundrum.
Right now I do not (and never have) believed the single orbit story: =
that would give a landing far to the west of the standard landing site - =
just as Gagarin landed way to the west of the "normal" Vostok-Soyuz =
landing area.
The major consideration with the flight time is the orbital module. =
That has demonstrated a delta-V capability of ~60 m/s on the SZ 2, 3, 4 =
flights. If the SZ 5 flight has no orbit-raising manoeuvre to the 335 =
km circular orbit before recovery then the orbital module will have to =
expend ~40 m/s in propellant just to reach this orbit - and that will =
leave only a third of the normal propellant for the remaining manoeuvres =
- not enough for a lifetime of about 6-8 months.
Therefore, I believe that - like SZ 3 and 4 - SZ 5 will perform an =
orbit-raising manoeuvre about 7 hours after launch. This means that =
the final equator crossing will match those of SZ 3 and 4, but not 1 or =
2. (Explanation, see my JBIS paper, May-June 2003.) In turn, this =
means a lifetime of 21h 24m or so.
I do not believe the 30-31 circuit flight story. The JBIS paper has =
shown that the nominal landing opportunities come after an *odd* number =
of days in flight: 1, 3, 5, 7.
Anyone who is interested in reproducing this analysis should contact me =
direct for permission to do so: no plagiarism, please !
Phillip Clark
molniya@dircon.co.uk
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>There is a problem with the reported =
Shen Zhou 5=20
launch time of about 08.00 Beijing Time.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The Chinese have said that both launch =
and landing=20
will be during daylight hours.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>On this basis, sunrise at the landing =
site - which=20
appears to be in the "Beijing Time" time zone (even though China does =
not have=20
time zones !) - will be at about 06.30 BT - and therefore this is the =
earliest=20
landing time on October 16th.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I am assuming a flight time of about =
21h 24m=20
(plus/minus 1 minute or so), and therefore this implies that the =
*earliest*=20
launch time can be 09.00 BT. The announced launch time of =
08.00 BT=20
would give a landing in darkness.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has there been a confusion in the local =
times=20
? Maybe the launch will be at 08.00 "Jiuquan local time" =3D =
09.00 BT=20
? This would solve to conundrum.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Right now I do not (and never have) =
believed the=20
single orbit story: that would give a landing far to the west of the =
standard=20
landing site - just as Gagarin landed way to the west of the "normal"=20
Vostok-Soyuz landing area.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The major consideration with the flight =
time is the=20
orbital module. That has demonstrated a delta-V capability =
of ~60=20
m/s on the SZ 2, 3, 4 flights. If the SZ 5 flight has no=20
orbit-raising manoeuvre to the 335 km circular orbit before =
recovery then=20
the orbital module will have to expend ~40 m/s in propellant just to =
reach this=20
orbit - and that will leave only a third of the normal propellant for =
the=20
remaining manoeuvres - not enough for a lifetime of about 6-8=20
months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Therefore, I believe that - like =
SZ 3 and 4=20
- SZ 5 will perform an orbit-raising manoeuvre about 7 hours after=20
launch. This means that the final equator crossing will =
match those=20
of SZ 3 and 4, but not 1 or 2. (Explanation, see my JBIS =
paper,=20
May-June 2003.) In turn, this means a lifetime of 21h 24m or =
so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I do not believe the 30-31 circuit =
flight=20
story. The JBIS paper has shown that the nominal landing=20
opportunities come after an *odd* number of days in flight: 1, 3, 5,=20
7.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Anyone who is interested in reproducing =
this=20
analysis should contact me direct for permission to do so: no =
plagiarism, please=20
!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Phillip Clark</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"mailto:molniya@dircon.co.uk">molniya@dircon.co.uk</A></FONT></DIV=
>
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