[FPSPACE] "Russia and the West: Partnership or Confrontation"

[JamesOberg@aol.com]

JimO: 
The gist of this seems to be that, regarding arms sales to Iran, these guys 
say, sure, the Americans could threaten us, and throw us off the Space 
Station, but so what? It's not a "serious area of cooperation" anyway. Well, 
these guys are NOT government spokesmen, they're professors. 


 PRESS CONFERENCE WITH ALEXANDER KONOVALOV, 
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENTS INSTITUTE (SAI) PRESIDENT, AND 
SERGEI  OZNOBISHCHEV, SAI DIRECTOR
        [PRESS DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE, 15:10, JANUARY 15, 2001]
     Moderator: Thank you for joining us. Our topic is "Russia and the West: 
Partnership or Confrontation". And it gives me pleasure to introduce the two 
leaders of the Strategic Assessments Institute, Alexander Alexandrovich 
Konovalov, who is a Professor with the Moscow State Institute of 
International Relations and President of the Institute of Strategic 
Assessments and Sergei Konstantinovich Oznobishchev, director of the 
Institute of Strategic Assessments. 

     So, Alexander Alexandrovich Konovalov will be the first to speak.
     Konovalov: Thank you for coming on such a bad day when the weather makes 
you feel murky in your soul, when it is dark and filthy in the streets. 
     I would just like to say a couple of words by way of an introduction on 
the problems that should be of concern to us. There has been a change of 
administrations in the United States. You have already heard the first rebuke 
from Bush. I don't quite understand why it came as such a surprise to us 
because he has in fact repeated verbatim what he said in the second 
television debate. You remember that two of the three rounds failed to 
provide any of the sides with a tangible lead, but the second round was won 
by Bush although the topic was foreign policy on which he was expected to 
lose on every count because he is not a specialist.
     And on that occasion he said a very simple thing. He said exactly what 
he said in an interview with The New York Times. He said that America has 
been throwing money at the Russians to make them like us Americans. They have 
not become like us and the money settled in the pockets of Viktor Stepanovich 
Chernomyrdin. Viktor Stepanovich took offense and promises to sue him. 

     Moderator: Did he sue?
     Konovalov: No, he didn't. But by taking offense he boosted the 
popularity of Bush Jr. The situation in the relations with the United States 
is very worrisome. There are no serious areas for cooperation except disposal 
of arms.  And there is a very serious threat that -- you know that the only 
thing that really links us with the United States is the system of arms 
control, agreements on reductions and prospects for further agreements, all 
this is under threat.
     And we find ourselves in a stalemate situation. <snip re START-2> 
Perhaps, only Condoleezza Rice left a spark of hope when in her latest 
article in Foreign Affairs she wrote that a weak Russia was much more 
dangerous for America than a strong one. But I am not sure that one smart 
woman will be able to prevail upon such a large number of former defense 
secretaries and of those who --
     <snip> I categorically disagree with the way President Putin at the 
Brunei summit told President Clinton, as a kind of farewell remark, that 
"your presidency marked a breakthrough" in Russian-American relations.  In my 
view, it was not a breakthrough but a total failure. The Clinton presidency 
was one of the most destructive for Russian-American relations. 
     <snip> I believe Russian foreign policy will increasingly reflect 
internal interests. There will be small interest in what America is going to 
say about Russia's activities in the foreign policy arena. This is 
illustrated by the prepared transaction with Iran. It can be said the 
transaction with Iran has been restored, the transaction to sell arms. Our 
desire will be not to do something pleasant for the United States but to 
pursue our national interest as our leadership understands it.
     True, there are many risks because we may be thrown out of the 
International Space Station, it may be decided not to use our Proton missiles 
to deliver payloads. Of course the Americans have more possibilities to exert 
economic influence on us than vice versa. But these possibilities, really, 
are not so numerous. You see, many of the channels linking us were destroyed 
in recent times.