[FPSPACE] The CIA predicts the future

[Larry Klaes]

Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2001 09:22:50 -0800
Subject: "What happened to good old-fashioned espionage?"
To: "Nightline Mailing List" <nightlinemail-l@alist0.starwave.com>
From: Nightline <listeditor@abcnews.go.com>
List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:leave-nightlinemail-l-335749J@alist0.starwave.com>
Reply-To: Nightline <listeditor@abcnews.go.com>

TONIGHT'S SUBJECT: The CIA predicts the future.  A new CIA report lays out
what they think the world will look like in the year 2015, and what new
threats the United States will face.

I've been worrying about today for more than a week. We have two
broadcasts on the CIA's view of the future just about ready to go. Our
producers have been working on them for weeks. Originally there were going
to be three, but we found out yesterday that the interview for the third
show had been cancelled. But our idea was to run these programs right
before Inauguration Day, as a look at some of the things the new
administration will face.

But then Mr. Ashcroft arrived on the public stage, and the hearings were
scheduled for this week. Now we covered the first day of the hearings last
night. Our concern was whether there would be so much news coming out of
the hearings that we would have to postpone the CIA broadcasts. The
worst-case scenario would be that we run the first CIA program tonight,
and then have to turn back to the Ashcroft hearings tomorrow. We really
don't want to split the two shows up, but this is a danger we face every
time we do a series, even if it's just two broadcasts.

So we're watching the hearings today, and if there is major news, or if
there is some other breaking story, we're ready to switch subjects  -- but
hopefully not. We're guessing that there won't be major news coming out of
Capitol Hill, at least for the next two days. The CIA report is pretty
interesting. They lay out what they think the shape of the world will be
in 15 years.  Some of their conclusions will surprise you, they certainly
surprised us.

Water may turn out to be a major cause of conflict. New diseases will
affect where and how the U.S. military is deployed. The world is changing
in ways we never expected, and the pace of those changes is faster than
ever before. Does it make sense for the CIA to be worried about the
outbreak of a new disease or whether a dam in Turkey will lead to war with
Syria? What happened to good old-fashioned espionage, microfilm, missile
plans, and all that cool spy stuff? Like I said, the world is changing.
The definition of a "threat to the U.S." now goes far beyond the military
capability of a hostile nation. Drug cartels are richer and better armed
than many countries, borders are breaking down. It's going to be an
interesting time. Ted sat down at CIA headquarters with a group of Agency
analysts who helped produce the report, and we'll lay out their
predictions, and their fears, over the next two nights.

At least that's our plan for now. I intend to keep worrying about other
news cropping up and interfering with our plans. But then that's part of
our job.

Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2001

Leroy Sievers
Executive Producer
"Nightline" Offices
Washington, D.C.

----

Chat with Nightline guests and find articles, transcripts and video
excerpts on our Web site at:

http://abcnews.go.com/Sections/Nightline/

You can unsubscribe to the Nightline e-mail at: 

http://abcnews.go.com/onair/dailynews/nightlineunsubscribe.html