[FPSPACE] Second Unmanned flight test of Shenzhou manned Space Craft Prototype.

[Charles P. Vick]

Second Unmanned flight test of Shenzhou manned Space Craft Prototype.
01-09-01
By Charles P. Vick

        The fact that this PRC manned effort is so protracted out that one
is left with the impression that the only viable conclusion that it is
greatly underfunded and stretched out with in the present and new five year
plans. One does wonder if it is not also partially dependent on Western
commercial satellite business for some of its economic support. The cut off
of license support, now temporarily suspended, from the US this last year
could perhaps now be reflect in this programs funding to a degree. 
        However I personally believe they are partially bogged down in
detail systems development integration. I further suspect that beyond the
final systems integration they are now trying to make sure that this flight
is a complete all up systems demonstration to cut development time and cost
that is innate in a underfunded limited budget program. I am sure that the
PRC's leadership will not tolerate the expense of a lot of flight test for
this prestige technological catch up program. The first unmanned flight test
was not a full up systems flight test based on what is known.
	They have said that they will do the manned space launch and perhaps a
little more within the next five year plan starting on January 1, 2001. I
think this is realistic with in what appears to be taking place. If they are
successful with this all systems up flight test with a mission duration of 3
to 7 days then almost certainly a more ambitious mission demonstration could
perhaps be expected in the fall of 2001 or the spring of 2002 followed
perhps by a manned mission by the fall of 2002. This infact may be premature
as it could easily slip into 2003 depending on the test results with perhaps
a total of four unmanned flights required before finally flying it manned.
This is my best guesstimate based on the pacing of the program as I see it
now. Some of this will also depend on the political leadership 's desires
and need from their viewpoint. They then might try to accomplish as
Soyuz-4/5 class mission and long duration mission before the end of the
upcoming five year plan. Ultimately their long term goal is a duel purpose
manned space station perhaps to supplement military needs but only time will
answer this. Yes they could eventually try and create a third world
cooperative manned space effort as a counter to ISS but by that time the
next international cooperative manned lunar base effort will be underway
leaving them well behind the international community.
	The industry aerospace command economy could not do what it does if it were
not for the support of the capitalist  economic zones added monies. Innately
that Command Economy has the major problem of being able to absorb new
technology with in its industrial economy. IE: It takes them time with a
great deal of effort to assimilate new hardware technology. One they have to
understand it, two they have to create the industry to produce it and third
they have to then learn to develop their own variations on that technology
for the particular application. It is not unusual for this to take as much
as five to seven years to be accomplished. Their obtaining of Russian Soyuz
technology and then developing their own larger variant spacecraft has taken
a long time and they are far from completing it full potential
extrapolation. It also helps to understand that the Chief Designers General
of the program educated at MAI has no control over the funding of the
program which only the ministries receive. To do anything beyond what is
already in the planned economy requires a long spiteful process through the
ministries to the State planning organs and ultimate approval at the
leadership level for anything needed. That is unless the Chief Designer
General has political access to the leadership which I suspect he does based
on post mission report imagery evidence. 
	How significant is the PRC's manned space effort has several facets to it.
One they need to do this if they are ever to be a part of any future
international space efforts. Not merely must they develop the hardware but
the must also demonstrate the experience and reliability required to join
such an effort. Having been refused access to the ISS program for their
failure to join the MTRC signatories will continues to shut the door to
their future international participation until the PRC's leadership's cleans
its act up and gets smart among other things. The PRC's potential space
threat issues and competition pose a serious potential competitive issue
that will in the future years have to be directly addressed since it is the
apparent potential new second Cold War competitor. Issues raised in the
recent 68 page National Intelligence Council document, certainly relates to
issues that a new National Aeronautics and Space Council under the Office of
Science and Technology Policy in the new administration must address
concerning the PRC's space trends. Certainly the recently released White
Paper of  the PRC on its space Policy planning only reflects essentially the
civil or duel purpose side for Western consumption verses the military side
of their space policy planning. On the other hand if the PRC's leadership
were to choose to get smart and  join the MTCR and clean up the Human Rights
issues and stop or seriously curtain the developing nuclear threat by
joining the nuclear none proliferation treaty and the Start-III treaty
negotiations then it could potentially become a part of future Lunar Base
and Manned Mars efforts which will ultimately have to be a global effort
simply because of the foreign policy issues that all space programs are tied
to and the over whelming cost involved.

All the best,
Charles P. Vick
_______________________
Charles P. Vick
Research Analyst
Federation of American Scientists
phone: (202) 675-1025
fax: (202) 675-1024
email: cpvick@fas.org
http://www.fas.org/