[FPSPACE] Italiamir

[Igor Lissov]

Luc,

>If you think MirCorp is a less-than-believable undertaking, check out
>www.italiamir.org
>A messy website, a press release that has not been picked up by any news
>organisation and claims of several flights to Mir.
>Comments, anyone?


The MirCorp and ItaliMir guys don't take into account real
facts. The facts are that Mir mean motion today (October 22 =
2000 Day 296) passed the 15.800 revs per day mark. It was 
15.750 at Day 262 and 15.700 at Day 210. You see... plus 52 days, 
than 34 days. Probably it will reach 15.850 by Day 316 and 15.900 by 
Day 333. The station is falling more and more fast and may reenter
in January or February.

Progress M43 (aka #243) docked to Mir yesterday but this is the 
last Progress Russians sent to the station, to keep it controlled
until reentry.

Before October 3, plans for Progress use was as follows
(quoting Sergey Shamsutdinov's article in NK #11 being
in production):

14 Nov 2000  Progress M1 #253  to ISS
12 Dec 2000  Progress M  #244  to ISS
   Jan 2001  Progress M1 #254  to Mir for deorbiting
   Feb 2001  Progress M1 #255  to ISS
   Apr 2001  Progress M1 #256  to ISS
   Jul 2001  Progress M1 #257  to ISS
   Sep 2001  Progress M1 #258  to ISS
   Nov 2001  Progress M1 #259  to ISS

Well, #243 is now launched, #253 is at Baykonur, #244
and #254 are complete and undergo testing, others are
in production. The schedule listed above is obsolete:
there was a decision Oct 3 to shift ISS launches one
slot to the right (December to February etc.) because
Progress deliveries wouldn't meet launch schedule.
Even now, #254 may be called up to fill gap in ISS
timetable.

Progress M #243 can rise Mir orbit once. It would
give the station several months of breath only to 
left it uncontrollable.

If some Progress M1 are borrowed from ISS, that station
risks the same fate. Obviously the risk is inacceptable.

So the question: how, apart from God's help, would
MirCorp/ItaliMir/whoever else keep Mir in orbit
right now?!

I hate to say this but I feel Mir is doomed.

Igor Lissov